BuffaloWeather

Wow, that is crazy. I never knew that.

All these new radars should be fun this winter!

I got my fence installed in Aug of 2019. I won my lawsuit a few months ago and subpoena 5 banks to no avail. I'm finally getting it reinstalled next week due to supply shortages. My new fence guy ordered the supplies in early April and just got them in this week. Over $5k to get it fixed after paying 8k for the install.

12 days until we open the winter thread up on Nov 1st.

Can only go down from here.

Yesterday was KBUFS first negative day all October at -1.

Wow, SW Lake Erie gets way better waterspouts then we do.

Looks like we're going to get a stronger Nina than last year https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/#data

Unfortunately I don't get excited for cold, only snow.

It was still a great game. That 3rd down placement was suspect, I think Allen got the 1st down and game is over there. I still come away from that game thinking we're the better team. Without Henry going insane we win pretty easily.

Well our worst ever winters were also Nina 2011-2012 and the last 2 years.

Slowest workday of the year, cannot wait for tonight.

I'm at 38/46 peaks so only 8 left. Thinking of doing 1-2 this winter, should finish next summer/fall. My long term plan is to do all 111 4K+ peaks in the northeast.

Mt colden

whiteface

The only one with any type of good accuracy is November as its only 2 weeks away, the rest are not too accurate. Still nice to see as they are usually all above average all the time.

Its warmer than average all the time, so its tough to predict below normal temps for 3 consecutive months now adays, even though I'm tempted to this year.

The only month above average is January. That is our coldest month so even slightly above equates to snow in January. This is for Dec

Not too far out either. That's a lake effect signal if I've ever seen one. Let's hope its 2nd half of November. Lots of temp issues for the first 2 weeks.

CFS for next few months. You rarely see this.

My thoughts are we haven't had 3 years of below average snowfall in Buffalo since the 80s. Syracuse hasn't had 4 below average snowfall years in decades. The top analogs all look okay, once again the Pacific is going to control our weather. The best thing going for us is a weak polar vortex. Also temperature patterns go in 3-4 month cycles on average. October likely ends as the warmest October on record. September finished at +3.1, August at +5.3. We likely get at least one below average month between Nov-March, most likely 2. In that case I see us finishing 5-10% above average snowfall with slightly above average temps. With a SE ridge, our region should feature many chances at synoptic events. I think farther NW than last years events. I think winter starts in Mid Nov and we see an earlier end to winter than the last few seasons. I think we get a warmer March/April then average. Bookmark this post to show me how wrong I was at the end of winter.

lake erie spout cam