Despite the better 500 look early it appears to have trimmed back totals in the Northern area and holds steady around DC, but of course its the NAM past 48 hours.
The orientation of the max stripe of snowfall seems to be shifting closer to, or over our CWA on the latest models, even the euro. That’s about all you can ask for.
Yes, temps are cold, let’s get some snow on the ground, get the pattern right, and then go hunting for some big storms. This was never looking like anything more than light/moderate.
If it plays out this way this is a pretty big bust for the GFS/GEFS. They were spitting out weenie runs until 6z today. I guess maybe the fact that no one is calibrating/checking data had an impact.
Yeah, and if 12z today puts the nail in the coffin on a warming event I’d rather know sooner than later. Still somewhat encouraging the EPS hasn’t given up on the coastal completely yet.