SomeguyfromTakomaPark

GFS run is active and interesting once we get past next weeks rainer. MLK potential and then clippers.

320 feet in Takoma Park but I don't think it will help on this one unless as you noted we get a more southeast track. Anything marginal in the last 5+ years has been rain for us if I am remembering correctly.

It really sucks —> a low pressure off Virginia Beach in January should be a snowstorm for us.

Just another perfect track low pressure rainstorm during our peak climo and minimum sun angle.

The thing is we’re not really “a shift away”. There is no deep cold air. The best model runs had the metros at 34-35. Too warm. Next.

We can debate all we want about the specifics but at the end of the day it’s just not cold enough to snow anymore. Sometimes it’s an inland track sometimes it’s a storm that’s too weak etc etc. we don’t spend enough time below freezing anymore to get snow, it’s that simple.

It’s just too warm, no actual cold air to be found when the storm arrives. Story of every storm.

This would be a great start to the season. 2-5 inches in the metro would be fantastic.

So whats the best case scenario in the immediate metro? It looks like temps never get below 34-35 on most guidance in the cities. Paste bomb?

This has 37 degrees and rain written all over it for immediate dc area.

Haven’t followed closely since about a week to ten days ago. At that point we were looking at a transition to a good pattern around new years. Is that off the table? Can some give me a quick tldr on where we’re at? Muchas gracias.

The reaper needs to visit soon

Pattern chasing at 15-20 days --> always works out lolololol

Interesting radar over nyc area, simultaneously have east and west moving showers.

It’s pretty breezy out already

Norfolk sustained 40 gusting to 53 per the main tropical thread. Pretty impressive given distance from center. I wonder if we can get some legit tropical storm conditions up here tomorrow morning.

Happening now

Isabel had 70-80 mph gusts across our region IIRC, I don’t see any models forecasting that around here.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY TONIGHT/... Newly named Tropical Storm Ophelia is expected to move north through tonight, making landfall along the North Carolina coast. Ophelia will track into southeast Virginia, eventually losing its tropical characteristics and becoming an extratropical system as it moves across Virginia. This is the reason for the combination of tropical (Tropical Storm Warnings) and non- tropical (Wind Advisory) headlines in our area. Regardless of its designation, this system is expected to bring widespread rainfall and strong winds to the area starting tonight and persisting through Sunday morning. Light rain is expected to reach far southern Maryland this evening, then spread north through the overnight. Most of the area should be in light rain come sunrise Saturday. The heaviest rain should hold off until late Saturday morning. Temps tonight settle in the low to mid 50s, with upper 50s to low 60s from D.C. down to southern Maryland. Strong northeast winds are expected to develop along and east of the Blue Ridge as the circulation of Ophelia pushes northward. Wind gusts of 35-45 mph are expected, with stronger gusts up to 50-55mph along the immediate coast of the Western Shore and Tidal Potomac. The combination of long duration wind gusts and a saturated ground from rain will result in higher chances for downed trees across the area. A drenching rain is expected from the Blue Ridge eastward with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, locally approaching 5 inches through Sunday morning. Given upslope flow against the east slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains, some localized heavy maxima are not out of the question. Forecast highs are in the upper 50s to mid 60s, locally down into the upper 40s to mid 50s across the mountains.

Are those winds for 12z Monday? Edit: I see it’s an accumulated max wind gust product now.

I'd guess wind advisory for this.

Euro is a solid 1-3 inches of rain region wide NW to SE. The windiest panel is 18 kt sustained winds in DC.

What are we thinking with winds? Gust in the 30s inland?

In winter the euro no snow solution would be correct 99 times out of 100.

- it’s really a shame that the main byproduct of our industrial civilization happens to make it warmer. I wish that carbon dioxide had the opposite effect, global cooling. Then people would pay attention! Imagine if summer was disappearing!