I need a met to explain how the CMC and GFS look so similar at 500mb 90 hours but have such vastly different surface outcomes. All the people saying "small changes" are right I think. The position and orientation of the trough at 500 mb are almost the same.
If this ends up being nothing (likely) I feel like there really will be no point in ever looking at this model again. If it shows a BECS in NAM range and then loses it 6 hours later why would I ever even consider using it.
This is true but most people as far as I can tell just gobble up whatever garbage social media algos feed them....that's why I just stay off social media for the most part.
Yeah I feel like Norluns are not something you can count on. What's interesting to me is that the Euro AI is just on the verge of blurring the norlun and more direct coastal influence, makes me think we can't rule out a closer coastal yet.
I guess back to 0z Monday it was showing the big dog, but I think all yesterday it was fairly consistent. Def more consistent than everything else that's for sure.