griteater

It will trend weaker and you and Frosty will be crying woe is me in here, then it will end up nuking you in the end and Orangeburg will be crying woes is me in here

This reminds me of my griteater signature text in NC State red below

We now have the EPS on the new 06z run out to hr144 (06z run of EPS ends at 144) - folks on the southern edge of wintry precip will like the trends. The mean has more suppressive flow over the NE, so our storm has nudged south and is a little colder. Nice thing too is that the kicker wave behind our storm wave isn't as much right on it's tail, so I think that will allow our storm wave to maintain itself nicely as it rolls east. It's kind of a blend of the UKMet and Euro from last night (image below), which seems like a solid forecast strategy at the moment. Note how the UKMet doesn't have as strong of a kicker wave coming into California, so our storm wave in the 4 corners is a bit stronger on the UKMet...the 06z EPS Mean trended in this direction.

Philippe Papin has a model floater setup for his maps of the high resolution HRRR - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php. At 2AM tonight, the eye has only moved to a position just west of N Myrtle Beach. The map here is showing the radar reflectivity at 2AM and the total rainfall over the 18 hr period of the model run

Just a note that this is a bias chart for wind speed, but the verification numbers for the storm track show the Euro as the worst performing model as well for the 4-5 day forecast (of the major models). Just thinking thru the model in runs in my head though, I feel like the Euro latched onto some of the better ideas with this storm. When the GFS and UKMet were stuck up in the Outer Banks, the Euro had runs with it in SE NC or down in SC. As is usually the case, a model blend is usually best. You can get the verification charts here - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/ The Euro did bump north last night, with it falling more in line with the Hurr Center track.

Latest Euro hasn't changed. Moves the storm SW down the SC coastline toward Charleston, then west into southern SC...much like today's UKMet

UKMet moved south. The storm tracks SW along the SC coast, then west into southern SC, then up into SW NC / E TN....this matches up with the latest runs of the FV3 and Euro. Looks like 12z FV3 is running now

Chaser located on North Topsail Beach. He's in a "good" spot for surge....hope he has a high floor to retreat to though - https://twitter.com/aaronjayjack/status/1040253660939341824

Yeah, now is the time that it should begin to veer off more to the WNW, then West....but the trend has definitely been for it tracking a little north of the Euro and TVCN guidance...the GFS has done pretty well actually in the short term, but it veers it off to the west as well

GFS and UKMet run it west to east across central/northern SC, but the FV3 and Euro send it more SW and track it down into southern SC. The latest Euro actually keeps the center offshore of SC until it hits Charleston, then moves it west across southern SC. IMO, the FV3 and Euro have been the better performing models in terms of being the trend setters. In terms of coastal storm surge and beach erosion, I would put Topsail Beach up thru Sneads Ferry in the crosshair for max damage....bad up thru Emerald Isle as well

UKMet looks a little south and west of the GFS track. Looks like it is just SE of Cape Fear at hr24, just NW of Charleston at hr48, then it runs west thru SC, then up into central/eastern TN

There's no outflow on the SW/S/SE sides of the storm at the moment. This reminds me a bit of Isabel, a storm that was strong, but weakened to a CAT 2 at landfall. Still, there was a huge amount of storm surge damage in the vulnerable southern Outer Banks with that one.

Euro Ensemble Mean is much like its last run. Storm moves into Wilmington area, then moves SW, where the mean is actually just off the SC coast (same as last run). This run is slower with the progression SW thru the SC coast...so, an increasing heavy rainfall threat in eastern / NE South Carolina.

Euro is a slow crawl with the storm center Mon into Tues up into W NC and E TN with plenty of rain along an axis from Columbia to Boone

hr114-126 it moves into E GA, then into the western upstate of SC. More rain in SC, with rain now focused from Columbia to upstate into western NC

It's moving slowly across southern SC hr96-108....loads of rain across most of SC

It still hasn't moved, hr87-96, torrential rains in NE section of SC into SE NC. It finally kicks west across southern SC at hr99 Sunday morning.

Euro basically hasn't moved the storm from hr72-87, it's still just NE of Charleston....unreal

hr72-78, Euro is crawling at a position just NE of Charleston still, right along the coast, still a formidable storm

By hr72, it has dropped due south out over the open water, then into a position just NE of Charleston, right along the coast

Thru hr54, Euro is virtually identical to the last run....brings it into Onslow Bay right close to the coast, then moves it west into the Wilmington area. I would expect the surge to be really bad there in Topsail to Emerald Isle given the storm size now

At hr48, UKMet is right near Wilmington / Cape Fear

UKMet on the crude maps looks similar to the GFS after hr72....it looks like it is between Myrtle Beach and Charleston at hr72, then moves into the southern third of South Carolina (I don't have the maps before hr72 yet). GFS and UKMet both moved a little south thru South Carolina.

The GFS is running down the SC coast / just inland of SC coast from hr81-93

Power Outage forecast - https://twitter.com/JamesBelanger/status/1039888372607721473