griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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There's the post we've been looking for. Nice! Straight up, I love where you are located with this one (as usual). Precip is going to be farther north than currently shown IMO even if the track is the same...and you have better ratios there...just wait it out
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UKMet Precip
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Noteworthy jump for a 6 hr model run separation this late in the game.
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Nudged south maybe it looks like??
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UKMet has the low on the southern LA coast at 48, then a decent amount off the coast of Charleston at 72 - probably similar to previous run
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UKMet at 72 isn't close to the Carolina coast with the sfc low....can't see 24 and 48 yet, which I know is weird
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Good backside snow showers flying on the GFS through the day Monday in E TN, N GA, W Carolinas
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Good front end snow thump for CLT to RDU on the GFS
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It's a little colder and south...h5 heights along the east coast were south thru the run...amazing how that has continued
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I dug it out - see our own Isohume's comments here - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/43038-saturation-with-respect-to-ice/?do=findComment&comment=2835083
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you should maybe add "for VA" on the end
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It looks wrong to me, plus you need ice nuclei for sleet just like you do snow (so you need saturation in DGZ for both)...that's my understanding (i.e. sleet has to come from melted snow)
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That looks like plenty of RH in the DGZ there IMO. Saturation with respect to ice is 80% RH...saturation with respect to liquid is 100% RH....believe that's how it goes.
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For the city of Charlotte right now, I would go with 1-3 inches of snow/sleet/slop, then up to an inch of snow at the end via slow to exit snow showers on the backside. Tough forecast though given what I think will be hefty precip totals.
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No, not the ULL...I'm talking on Sunday. 0 deg is roughly along NC/SC border early Sun, then bisects the state west to east midday, then it moves NW to western NC Sun aftn
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On a side note, I posted tonight's Euro Weeklies for January in the long range thread... https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50522-mid-to-long-term-discussion-2018/?do=findComment&comment=5057042
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Just mean that it doesn't jerk the 0 deg line NW right during the "1st half of the heaviest precip", but rather, during the 2nd half of the heaviest precip that rolls thru
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18z Euro compared to 12z was similar overall with temperatures. It brings the 850 0 deg back to just east of the NC Mtns during, say, the 2nd half of the heavy precip portion of the storm. It was wetter this run thru NC where there is a large area of at least 2 inches liquid. Here are the last 4 runs of total precip for the storm to Monday morning (12z Mon)
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Good
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It’s a warning sign when the UKMet and GFS are out QPFing the NAM...big boy
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I just looked thru the NAM, Euro, GFS, and FV3 with the 850 low track and temps, and it's not pretty. The FV3 is the coldest of the 4 even though its track is comparatively pretty far north....but it maintains the cold aloft the best on the front side of the storm in NC...it's the model to root for with the CLT To RDU crowd. The other thing to root for is for continued suppression of the southern wave...either via it taking a little bit more of a southerly track or the NE confluence coming in a little stronger. Anything that tracks the wave just a little farther south will want to make the 850mb low track a little farther south as well. It's probably a tall task, but that's what is needed. Here's the 850mb evolution on the FV3 on the front side of the storm:
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I'd like to revisit this...I will not get more snow than Newland or Lenoir or Hickory
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Thicknesses are a little colder on the NAM this run as precip is arriving
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Looks like to me that the NAM is going to be a touch south if anything this run
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It’ll be back in January with colder air, and blocking - take it to the dam bank
