griteater

My thoughts on the upcoming winter - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52692-griteaters-winter-outlook-19-20/

Appreciate it Mr. Kevin, thank you. I plan to have an outlook by the end of next week

Cooler trend for November east of the Rockies on the latest runs of the CFS

GFS Ensemble has nice curb appeal to it as we move toward Hallows' Eve

Rough summer, especially on the edges in May and September. Relief this weekend for some, then it looks like potential relief for all moving in next Tues thru Friday.

GFS MOS for Charlotte has a high of 94 Thurs with a dewpoint of 70. Then overcast Saturday with a dewpoint of 55 and a high of 67 - going to be a bit of a shock to the system me think

You can get SST reanalysis maps back into the late 1800's here - https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_wgsp/printpage.pl

Some like cold weather and hate the heat. Some like fishing

The trend over the last 4 days on the GEFS (last 4 12z runs) for the 5-day average for Oct 4 - Oct 9 has overall been cooler - maybe some actual relief on the way

The vegetation is about as dry as it gets around here at the moment. Here's the latest soil moisture map. No relief in sight over the next 15 days with above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation expected.

We'll worry about verification later, but for now... https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1175489102193602562?s=20

This is likely the culprit - https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/14/equinox-cracks-in-earths-magnetic-field/ "The northern autumnal equinox is <only a week away>. That means one thing: Cracks are opening in Earth’s magnetic field. Researchers have long known that during weeks around equinoxes fissures form in Earth’s magnetosphere. Solar wind can pour through the gaps to fuel bright displays of Northern Lights." "This is called the the “Russell-McPherron effect,” named after the researchers who first explained it. The cracks are opened by the solar wind itself. South-pointing magnetic fields inside the solar wind oppose Earth’s north-pointing magnetic field. North and South partially cancel one another, opening a crack. This cancellation can happen at any time of year, but it happens with greatest effect around the equinoxes. Indeed, a 75-year study shows that September is one of the most geomagnetically active months of the year–a direct result of “equinox cracks.”

Forecast highs here for Friday have gone up from upper 70’s to low 80’s. Sounds about right for this summer

Some numbers for the period of Sep 1 - Sep 17 Asheville: Avg Mean Temperature is 3rd hottest in 151 year record. Avg High Temperature is #1 hottest Greenville-Spartanburg: 2nd hottest in 136 year record Charlotte: 3rd hottest in 141 year record

Rainfall percent of mean over the past month

I'd say we've earned this upcoming cool air damming episode after this summer's beating

Includes data thru Sep 9 + 7 day forecast...

There were a couple of screwy things that happened last winter: 1. We had an official sudden stratospheric warming on Jan 1-2, but it didn't propagate down into the troposphere so we didn't get the -NAO and eastern trough that you would expect to see with a SSW/El Nino combo (unlucky) 2. Just at the time when you would think that El Nino would be exerting it's max influence on the pattern in February, we ended up with a February that looked like La Nina with a PNA of -1.73 and record snowfall in Seattle (odd)

Here's a long term trend chart for Dec-Feb temperatures for North Carolina

We've been in the warm cross-hairs in the southeast since the 2011-2012 winter

It really does suck, but as bad as it is, I hate the super long days of full sun and heat that you get in June/July even worse. At least we are closer to relief now

Ha, yeah Eric I was just talking to my neighbor yesterday about how October is the new September. It's been rough everywhere since 2007

94/42 now at ATL at 5pm 93/56 at CLT No end in sight in the long range with the summer warmth. Yuck

Currently 93/45 at Fulton County airport. 92/51 at ATL

Euro has a temperature of 94 with a dewpoint of 44 Friday afternoon in Atlanta - in the hot, dry subsidence zone on the backside of Dorian