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griteater

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  1. griteater
    Just light rain now
  2. griteater
    It’s sleeting here at my in laws, 3500 ft on a ridge above Spruce Pine
  3. griteater
  4. griteater
    ^ Stronger +IOD look too, which makes sense (I think it will linger thru winter because of how strong it’s been )
  5. griteater
    You can get SST reanalysis maps back into the late 1800's here - https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_wgsp/printpage.pl
  6. griteater
    A boost to subsurface warmth may be on the way... From NOAA Weekly MJO Report (May 6) - "Some erosion of upper ocean heat content is apparent east of the Maritime Continent, but most noteworthy is a westerly wind burst appears underway near 150E. This is likely to trigger a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave to help reinforce the warm water availability for the low frequency state in the Pacific."
  7. griteater
    Surefire signs that winter has gone bad: 1. Severe weather talk in the eastern U.S. 2. Snow in Seattle and Portland
  8. griteater
    I think we'll see radar break out nicely across E TN / NE GA / NC / northern half of SC overnight into early morning and spreading east thru the day. For you and I, soundings are sketchy for snow, but the timing is good (night and early morning) and it may be just cold enough. I'd keep expectations low on amounts....seeing flakes fly and maybe some light accumulations
  9. griteater
    It's overnight into early morning for Western Carolinas
  10. griteater
    A visual of the upper low dropping down thru Nebraska and Kansas - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=wv-mid
  11. griteater
    It’s a closed contour upper low that’s dropping down into the trough behind our departing storm. It’s currently located over S Dakota/Nebraska and will drop into E Oklahoma, then swing thru the SE states. Euro has precip breaking out with it in E TN / N GA a little before midnight then swinging east thru the Carolinas overnight and into the morning. Shouldn’t be anything major, but could be some nice embedded snow showers in there
  12. griteater
    Some of us have started adding some model performance thoughts on the storm here, FYI: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49398-southeast-winter-storm-threats-model-performance/?do=findComment&comment=5065039
  13. griteater
    The NAM is the new Dr No
  14. griteater
    Yeah Euro bumped north with precip and temps
  15. griteater
    Upper level divergence on the GFS....this is what the big ones look like
  16. griteater
    RAP and HRRR are usually boiling with heat...so, it's good to see though the NAM has a great track record with these winter storms over recent years....I think we all just need to move to the high country and be done with it
  17. griteater
    University of Wyoming has a good site for the actual balloon launch soundings (launched twice a day at 12z and 00z) - http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html
  18. griteater
    On the topic of the upper waves. The core of our storm is the upper wave currently over W Texas. The trailing upper wave that drops down is currently over N Montana / Saskatchewan - it will drop SE into Arkansas and down thru the SE. Some earlier model runs were more impressive with it, but not as much now. Still, the 06z Euro says there could be some light snow showers with it Sunday overnight into Monday morning in E TN / N GA / W NCSC
  19. griteater
    Euro Total Precip trend
  20. griteater
    For some reason, I don't see the 06z and 18z runs on weathermodels now...not sure what's going on there. Here's the 06z Euro run on Vista with the 850 low, then the second map is the sfc temps. It's north of an ideal track for northern upstate into CLT but it tries to bring wet snow/sleet in that area with heavy dynamics as it rolls thru.
  21. griteater
    I would just say that it's always a plus to see it on the cold side because if any model is going to be warm in the mid levels it's the HRRR and NAM
  22. griteater
    Well it's kind of impressive to see the HRRR be this cold to the south
  23. griteater
    Sure seems like it’s NAM and the Canadian models against UKMet / GFS / Euro regarding the southern fringe temps and the northern extent of the precip shield - 2 disparate camps
  24. griteater
    You sure are needy For you it jerked the 850 0 deg below you for a 6 hr period during peak storm. For CLT, it was south of us a good bit of the storm. I’m away at the moment Yes on Vista. Weathermodels has it too
  25. griteater
    Looks more like a cold nose than a warm one
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