griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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Yes the ICON has a bomb of a wave and sfc low (990mb) in the gulf
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GEFS mean didn’t look as good this run
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Agree it was a better run on the GFS. 18z FV3 looks pretty good at h5 with the wave, but it struggles to throw precip inland. It was a good run for RDU area, though sfc temps may be sketchy.
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UKMet on left / Euro on right at hr144 (at end of UKMet run). Largely similar for a day 6 map. Euro is a little more relaxed with the height field along the east coast, allowing the wave to get to neutral and spin up a good storm after this point.
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I think folks were just discussing it in here...not realizing it was going to be misconstrued as hype Yeah, we could use some good cold though
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Euro Ens Mean shows some slight improvement. West coast ridge is a little taller and the wave digs south a little more. More signal for the sfc low off the SE coast. The 51 member mean will move in baby steps - to be expected.
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Think you'd do a little better than it shows, but as depicted, it's a bit of a late bloomer where the system can't draw in moisture from its southeast and generate precip until the trough gets to neutral tilt.
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Could be a fun event to track...east of the mtns we need the Friday arctic boundary to do its job to usher in the cold and push the baroclinic boundary down into the northern gulf
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12z Euro Loop
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Euro at 180
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Yeah Euro is in the ICON/FV3/UKMet camp digging the wave nicely. Closes off the wave in the gulf south of Pensacola at 174. Warm in E NC though
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Here's the 12z GEFS Mean which continues to look pretty good
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Wave is digging nicely into Texas. It would struggle to round the bend with that look, but I prefer the south/suppressed look at this juncture
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12z UKMet is digging the wave nicely down into the Rio Grande of West Texas at 144...some decent looks with the FV3/ICON/UKMet
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New 12z FV3 is close to the ICON look. It has a nice backside wave that dives down into the conus trough into New Mexico, then along the gulf coast with sfc low from NE gulf to off the SE coast. It doesn't quite turn the corner and pump good precip inland
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12z GFS is a clipper with light mtn snows on Sat/Sat night...night and day difference with the wave handling compared to the ICON
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12z ICON has a healthy wave diving way south into the gulf at the end of the run Sun night. Hard to say how much it would turn the corner and pump precip inland as the wave is a bit positive tilt, but I'll take that look for sure at this juncture. 00z CMC was amped and on the warm side. The new 12z run is chilly, but weak and off the coast with the low
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Yeah Orangeburgwx, I wouldn’t get trigger happy with this one. Give it a couple more days to see if there is more of a concensus. 5 days with multiple model support is a solid rule that we have. Just my opinion
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FV3 had a second good storm 3 days later
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The 00z GEFS Mean is improved. Here are the last 6 runs for next Monday...last image is the most recent run at 00z
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Yes, the NOAA site gets it out quickly. It says "GFS", but it's the "eval" site, as in, evaluating the new version of the model (the FV3 version)
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Just wobbles on a day 8 system so it’s too far out to have more than a casual interest
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It's out on the NOAA eval site - https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=model
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Yeah, that's what you see with the various ensemble members....some west and well developed...some east and well developed.....some east and weaker
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FV3 doesn't develop the low and precip very much this run (low is farther east), but it has light snows in E NC. h5 wave looked similar to 18z overall.
