griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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There's no outflow on the SW/S/SE sides of the storm at the moment. This reminds me a bit of Isabel, a storm that was strong, but weakened to a CAT 2 at landfall. Still, there was a huge amount of storm surge damage in the vulnerable southern Outer Banks with that one.
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Euro Ensemble Mean is much like its last run. Storm moves into Wilmington area, then moves SW, where the mean is actually just off the SC coast (same as last run). This run is slower with the progression SW thru the SC coast...so, an increasing heavy rainfall threat in eastern / NE South Carolina.
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Euro is a slow crawl with the storm center Mon into Tues up into W NC and E TN with plenty of rain along an axis from Columbia to Boone
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hr114-126 it moves into E GA, then into the western upstate of SC. More rain in SC, with rain now focused from Columbia to upstate into western NC
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It's moving slowly across southern SC hr96-108....loads of rain across most of SC
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It still hasn't moved, hr87-96, torrential rains in NE section of SC into SE NC. It finally kicks west across southern SC at hr99 Sunday morning.
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Euro basically hasn't moved the storm from hr72-87, it's still just NE of Charleston....unreal
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hr72-78, Euro is crawling at a position just NE of Charleston still, right along the coast, still a formidable storm
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By hr72, it has dropped due south out over the open water, then into a position just NE of Charleston, right along the coast
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Thru hr54, Euro is virtually identical to the last run....brings it into Onslow Bay right close to the coast, then moves it west into the Wilmington area. I would expect the surge to be really bad there in Topsail to Emerald Isle given the storm size now
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At hr48, UKMet is right near Wilmington / Cape Fear
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UKMet on the crude maps looks similar to the GFS after hr72....it looks like it is between Myrtle Beach and Charleston at hr72, then moves into the southern third of South Carolina (I don't have the maps before hr72 yet). GFS and UKMet both moved a little south thru South Carolina.
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The GFS is running down the SC coast / just inland of SC coast from hr81-93
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Power Outage forecast - https://twitter.com/JamesBelanger/status/1039888372607721473
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An alternate view of the lack of steering flow (this is 500mb GFS forecast at 6z Sun) - click link for motion - https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/09/16/0600Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-82.92,43.14,667/loc=0.607,24.216
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National Hurricane Center TAFB - "Wave heights to 83 ft were measured early this morning under the NE quadrant of Hurricane Florence." https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1039882107399622657
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GFS Ensemble Trend Loop - strengthening anomaly centers with the trough off Pacific NW coast and ridge over the Great Lakes....so the trend is for more blocking and less steering flow, making the stall scenario as it approaches the coast more and more likely.
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A couple examples of interest Hurricane 5 in 1906 Hurricane 4 in 1913 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1906_Atlantic_hurricane_season https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1913_Atlantic_hurricane_season
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The modeling is fairly consistent with bringing it into or near the coast in SE NC. After that, with the Euro Ensemble members continuing to trend south over South Carolina (only 1 of the 51 members is now north of Columbia), IMO we are going to see the other modeling this morning continue to move south after the initial approach into SE NC.
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Euro Ensemble is south again. Phil has a trend loop here - https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039796190819188736
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UKMet is Wilmington area (hr72) to Myrtle Beach area (96) to west of Clemson (120) to E Ohio (144)
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UKMet has now moved south. At hr72 it is in Wilmington area. At hr120 it looks like it is west of Clemson, SC, near GA/NC/SC triple point. Those are the only 2 hours I have, which I know is weird (still coming in)
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Higher uncertainty given the stall and crawl scenario, but the Euro Ensembles moving south last night and holding today (along with the FV3), taking the system into SC, is pretty telling IMO
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A related post on this - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51511-hurricane-florence/?do=findComment&comment=4986166
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It goes both ways though. If the latest Euro and FV3 are correct, Raleigh NWS will have to change their maps
