griteater

If you mean snow with a lakes low, no high to the north, and no cold air damming, Jan 1987 is one

First off, my mistake, the 850mb temp maps aren't even out yet for the 12z run, but yeah, sfc low ends up at the mouth of the Cape Fear River. 500mb at 72 hour looks remarkably close to the CMC, but thickness line is slightly warmer on UKMet. Sfc low is stronger and closer to the coast. Seeing the UKMet like this is a warning shot. I don't see us going back weaker/flatter.

UKMet maps coming in. It's moist, but warm....suggests snow in N GA, NC Mtns and foothills

UKMet looks amped up at hr72...detailed maps come out later

Agree, it took a baby step toward a sharper wave...had slightly more precip west

NAVGEM is in the sharp camp too

The GFS/Euro/UKMet have a lot of work to do to get to this type of sharpening of the wave at the base of the trough. NAM/CMC/JMA are sharp at the base. I'd say meet the two ideas in the middle

Spot checking soundings, it looks legit with the precip type....are the model temps correct though? We'll see

NAM is going to be a whopper boys and girls

Agree Buddy, should see a little more storm with this run

Looking at the Euro, GFS, and CMC ensemble means, each one is taking baby steps toward more precip back inland. Of the 3, the Euro Ens is making the smallest moves (part of that may be the large # of ensemble members). The CMC Ens Mean is the most amplified with the southern portion of the trough. GFS and Euro Ens are similar at the base of the trough. I think we'll continue to see slight sharpening of the wave and some increases to the precip back to the west.

The upper levels drive the bus. So yes, it's all important

UKMet looks pretty healthy with precip...sfc low just off SC coast at hr72...850 zero deg from Norfolk to south of Charlotte to south of GSP

You can get the UKMet early at this link, but you have to turn your head sideways to view it, lol - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=60&carte=1021

As long as the wave doesn't go too positive tilt like the GFS, yes, I'd expect more precip inland than currently shown. Models tend to be too skimpy on the NW side with precip in Miller A's

We have a mix of solutions right now with amped up runs (CMC/JMA), and positive tilt, flatter runs (NAM/GFS). Probably take a middle man approach, similar to the Ensemble Means....but my thinking has been that we would see this tick more amped with more precip inland

Yep, UKMet looks more amped than its last run. I think this hobby is fun, but I'm not sure. Look at all these model runs and you and I get 38 degrees and rain

NAM and GFS come in with scrapers, but.....lol......the new CMC is juiced. Looks like that amped JMA run

NAM is in the JMA camp with the southern wave separation and sharpening at the end there...it didn't look warmer that run

It looks more positive tilt at the base of the trough. The 12z UKMet was like this, so that was a red flag, but these are wobbles, so it's hard to say...but the DWD Icon and UKMet didn't have as much push inland with the precip. I wouldn't sweat it too much really. Some of the other globals are diving more northern stream energy into the trough to sharpen it more...need to see the other 00z's.

At 42, NAM is hanging the southern shortwave back over New Mexico a bit, more like the globals...think that will limit this from being super amped up and well west....we'll see

GFS out to 72 - another baby step toward more precip inland and warmer in Carolinas (been saying warmer every run today it seems like)

NAM is more positive tilt at the base of the trough this run...don't think it's going to be as strong with the precip back inland

GSP Discussion... In response to encroaching positive tilt l/wv trough and developing upper jet dynamics, pcpn shield is progged to expand and develop back northward into the cwfa Thursday night. 05/12z SuperBlend and WPC guidance limits the increase to just chance pops thru the piedmont by daybreak Friday. Deeper forcing should increase into Friday with favorable upper jet positioning. Based on this, have increased precip chances to mid-chance with the best response slated to be atop the piedmont. Critical 85-70h thickness values should hover along the southeast fringe of the cwfa through Friday...a rough estimate of the rain/snow line for the bulk of the event. However, warm blyr temperatures makes it questionable on just how much snow would accumulate SE of I-85 where the liquid equiv QPF is the greatest. At this point, best combination of QPF and favorable temperatures looks to be North and NW of CLT where if any heavier bands are able to form would produce an inch of snow accumulation.