griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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Boone / Ashe look great right now, certainly better than yesterday. You have plenty of wiggle room with temps up there. Given the strong southern wave moving slowly scenario, this has the potential to be right up there with some of the big ones...but see the 48hr rule in my signature below...models will continue to change
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3-4 inch liquid in W NC into the upstate....El Nino at its best
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Final
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Regardless of track, yes, if it Miller A's like this, models basically always underestimate the precip on the NW side
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The northern stream wave does dive in late for a big phase...it's UKMet / Euro combo...tantalizing
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And it's still snowing after this...let me go see if I still have a job now
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It will sound weenie-ish, but the stronger the southern wave, the slower it will likely track...and the models tend to underestimate a healthy wave like this
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I do question some of the mid level warming back into west-central NC...the 850 low runs from central Bama to Myrtle Beach....that's a great track for Charlotte even...should see nice cooling aloft on the backside of the Miller A
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135 0 deg 850 retreats west into west-central NC, sfc freezing down in the upstate though
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Small closed contour at h5 over central TN at 132...Northern Stream dropping in a bit
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129 - snow from upstate to CLT to Raleigh and NW
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At 120, 850 0 deg says snow from Mack's house in the upstate over to Pinehurst and NW of there
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Shortwave dropping down from the northern stream will likely phase in late like the UKMet
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It's definitely a southern slider...let's see what it shows at the sfc
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Closed contour right over the Red River OK/TX border at 105 at 500mb
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Still all systems go at 93...it's a touch south of 00z so far
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The shortwave running thru the great lakes at 81 is a touch stronger again...should help with the NE confluence to keep the system suppressed...all systems go so far
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The wave thru baja is a tick south again out to 78
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Euro looks fine so far at 500mb out to 72...heights along the east coast are a tick south...every little bit matters
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It was a pretty tantalizing run on the UKMet...stout STJ wave tracking west to east with a late phase from the northern stream
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Gotcha, I was looking broadly at 1000-500mb thickness for temps...it was a small change, but every little bit matters down south
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FV3 out to 96 it's just a touch colder out ahead...looking at h5 it shouldn't be north of prior run....we'll see
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Yeah, living on the edge is no good, and there's normally a late north climb. Ideal scenario is for the NE confluence to increase over time, have the wave trek west to east instead of sliding northeast at the end....and throw in some late phasing
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WPC's morning update
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FL...it may come off a little north of there, but don't have the specifics with the early maps
