Powerball

The models get far too aggressive with the mixing out of moisture through the column. In dry Summers such as 2022, 1980 and 2023, they're closer to right than wrong. But in years like this one, 2021 or 2015 where there aren't drought conditions ongoing, they tend to be way off.

DFW just recorded its 7th 100*F day of the season as of 3pm. Highs in the upper 90s are forecasted for tomorrow. And looking into the medium/long range, after another bout of below-normal temps this weekend, there's still plenty of Summer (90s) to come yet...

Nelson didn't say anything that others weren't thinking to themselves.

Seems Milwaukee (especially the south side) is really getting a shellacking.

We're even getting the smoke way down here. It will make for a nice sunset, at least.

DFW did finally hot 100*F for the first time this season yesterday. Should log 2 more today and tomorrow.

DFW only topped out at 98*F yesterday and 99*F today, so the 100*F drought continues... Looks like the top 10 list for latest 1st 100*F days may be in play now (starting with 8/7). Meanwhile, 1973 and 1906 are the only years in recorded history thus far that DFW didn't see a single 100*F day. BTW, the high of 98*F yesterday is also amongst the latest in the season DFW has recorded a temp that high, with the exception of 2002.

DFW still has yet to hit 100*F this year, although that may change today.

I wonder if that observer in Grosse Pointe is the same one that perpetually lowballs their snowfall totals...

Got strong surface heating, modest mid-level lapse rates and surface dews in the low/mid 70s. So wet microburst potential is definitely on the higher end today.

DFW has another shot (albeit marginal) the next 2 days at 100*F. But at this point, if it doesn't happen, I'm all aboard the futility train...

Them are the doldrums of living in the Great Lakes region (specifically downwind). I feel for you...

Seems DFW may have its first legit shot at seeing its first 100*F day tomorrow, per the latest NWS grids. But if it doesn't happen tomorrow, the "lack-of" streak continues for the forseeable future.

A couple things. 1. This specific area has desperately needed rain as they've been dealing with a multi-year severe drought since at least 2022. It's just unfortunate that it came in the form of a historic flash food event. 2. There have been 56 confirmed deaths so far, and there's still 27 people missing. This is in part because the worst of the flooding occurred in the middle of the night.

The bolded is a huge exaggeration, lol. But Texas summers are like Michigan winters in that a lot of people are staying under the A/C or heat as much as they can.

I started to post exactly that in response, but yeah. You're spot on, lol... EDIT: Funny thing is, after 3 top 20 hottest Summers in a row before 2025, this Summer's looking to be more on the normal (if not cooler) side with no real heatwaves on the horizon for us. We still have yet to see our first 100*F+ day and should close out June without one.

To be fair, the bigger metros with UHI effect (Chicago, Detroit, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, etc.) are also under Excessive Heat Warnings.

https://x.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1931927067773358147?t=bWXphnTMAVFoFkuKJlcTlA&s=19

At least in Collin / Denron Counties, there were numerous 60-70 MPH wind gusts, which any other day if not for all the hype would be a solid severe weather event. It is rapidly turning into a Flash Flood situation for DFW now.

Scenario #2 from FWD's AFD ended up panning out.

Just got the notification for a Destructive Wind Warning (80 MPH) here.

And the supercell down around Stephenville. It's producing massive anvil/outflow blowoff.

It kind of has, although coverage is not really widespread.

The showers moving east out of Jack County bear watching. They could potentially intensify to severe t'storms like the cells in Palo Pinto County, which would pose a problem for DFW.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC363-082230- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0371.250608T2121Z-250608T2230Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 421 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Palo Pinto County in north central Texas... * Until 530 PM CDT. * At 421 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles south of Possum Kingdom Lake, or 22 miles northeast of Ranger, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * This severe thunderstorm will be near... Lake Palo Pinto around 445 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Brazos, Lone Camp, Santo, and New Salem. This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 378 and 389. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3279 9806 3251 9807 3251 9809 3267 9857 3286 9858 TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 287DEG 16KT 3274 9846 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH $$ Stalley