ChangeofSeasonsWX

Yeah I'm just not that impressed with this one honestly. Maybe it overperforms but not likely.

Any particular analogs for this that come to mind? I mean for us, not for the south.

About 2" of slop that I can't shovel and will freeze to cement. Hope we can turn things around soon.

The fact that the 1/7 storm has really underperformed here makes me want this to be a severe wind event even more. But we will see. 9/10 times winds fail to verify.

Oh wow really? I figured 1938 was stronger but the records didnt go back that far. Where did you find that out? I compliled this list for PVD: Days with a maximum sustained wind speed of ≥ 45 mph (72 km/h) – (1942 – 2023): 1. 08/31/1954 - 75 mph 2. 03/06/1959 - 53 mph 3. 09/27/1985 - 52 mph 4. 09/12/1960 - 51 mph 5. 12/02/1942 & 09/11/1954 - 50 mph 7. 08/04/2015 - 48 mph 8. 11/21/1956, 11/28/1958 & 03/02/2018 - 47 mph 11. 11/07/1953, 03/20/1958, 12/30/1962, 12/13/1976, 01/26/1978, 12/24/1994, 03/06/1997, 02/08/2013, 10/29/2017 & 10/27/2021 - 46 mph 21. 02/16/1967, 01/23/2005 & 12/23/2022 - 45 mph Days with a maximum wind gust of ≥ 64 mph (103 km/h) – (1953 – 2023): 1. 08/31/1954 - 105 mph 2. 09/12/1960 & 09/27/1985 - 81 mph 4. 09/11/1954 - 79 mph 5. 12/20/2009 - 74 mph 6. 09/14/1956 & 01/26/1978 - 73 mph 8. 03/20/1958 & 11/28/1958 - 71 mph 10. 03/06/1959 - 70 mph 11. 12/07/1953, 11/09/1957, 11/30/1963 & 02/16/1967 - 68 mph 15. 02/06/1978 - 67 mph 16. 12/30/1962, 08/04/2015 & 01/29/2022 - 66 mph 19. 03/02/2018 - 65 mph 20. 12/24/1994, 08/28/2011 & 12/23/2022 - 64 mph

I look back at records for PVD and the 1950s were wild for wind. What a time to be alive. Hurricanes and massive wind cutters. In terms of cutters, March 6, 1959 actually stands out as having the strongest sustained winds at 53 mph for several hours which is the second strongest sustained on record for PVD, only behind Hurricane Carol in 1954.

Personally I'm more of a wind fetish kind of guy than flooding. But its usually the wind that always underperforms while rain usually doesnt

Yeah thats what I noticed as well. The H9 winds were insane with that one on 12/18. This one looks much more tame overall. Not sure about 01/13 yet but I highly doubt that rivals 12/18 either.

Okay so not as severe as 12/18 then

PVD only got 3.8 on 12/09/05, however it was super intense for a couple of hours with blizzard conditions and thundersnow. Maybe we can get something similar with this?

Nice! So aside from rainfall amounts, how does this 1/10 cutter compare to the 1/13 bomb in terms of wind potential? Also, could the wind surpass the 12/18 system from last month? I know wind is very hard to predict but what would the ceiling be for these?

If it's gonna be a cutter might as well go all in with a Novie 1950 wind monsta

Even still, it only shows 1.9" by 7am Sunday at PVD? I didn't expect the rain/snow line to last for that long north of the south coast.

Wow the BOX map is really conservative. I know they usually are but I wasn't expecting that.

See ya there!

I was kidding but it would be nice to see a Novie 1950 at least once in my life. I mean 70-80 sustained at inland locations and it wasnt even a true hurricane? A storm like that is probably like 100 year storm at least. If the 10th turned into a 1950 I would be willing to sacrifice the storm on the 7th.

November 1950 incoming?

Something that surprised me looking back at historical records for PVD is that despite being near the coast, it's actually very rare for them to maintain 100% rH throughout an entire day. 2023 has had five days with 100% rH, one on January 4th, one on April 30th, and then three this past month on December 3rd, 26th and 27th. Before that, the last time there was 100% rH for an entire day was May 13, 2002! More than 20 years ago. Delayed reaction to the Hunga Tonga eruption maybe? It released all that water vapor into the air.

Some people on here act like we live in the Mid-Atlantic when it comes to snow. lol That ain't happening, at least not in our lifetimes. We will always have good and bad winters. Everything goes in cycles. In fact, the amount of snow for this area has been on the increase the last few decades so I don't know why everyone always freaks out each winter. lol I know we've had a shitty stretch lately but the 1980s were a lot worse. It WILL snow again people just relax. lol

This is similar to last year's storm on 12/23 in the PVD area. Definitely a decent wind storm but it doesn't hold a candle to 03/02/18, which had many hours of sustained 40-45 with frequent gusts to 60-65. The winds with this one have been sustained 25-35 with a couple of gusts to 55-60.

Yeah I've noticed lately that they seem to be more conservative in general. But like even on the outer cape and islands the HWW only states "gusts up to 65". Usually they go 70 or higher in this type of event. Then again, I don't think that the guidance is as bullish with this one as it was with those other events. Still a solid event but probably not another 10/29/17 or 03/02/18.

Still time to pull a November 1950? LOL But in all seriousness I'm curious what kind of enhanced warnings they would use if that magnitude storm happened today. 70 sustained in HFD, 80 sustained in BOS, gusts to 110 in Concord? I feel like a HWW wouldnt suffice...maybe like a PDS HWW or something?

I remember the southerly screamer on 12/12/2008 and then the SWFE just a week later on 12/19 with a quick 8" in like six hours, followed by another good snow event on New Years Eve. Would be nice to get a repeat but very unlikely.

Of course 9 times out of 10 wind events fail in this region, with no complaints from most on here, but a select group of us still always hold out hope for a decent event. A top tier, long duration wind event like 12/24/94 or 03/02/18 is super rare and wont happen, but maybe we could still get decent winds like the 12/23/22 system last year.

Some of the models are showing a slight possibility of a STC from this. In the unlikely event that it verifies, how would it compare to say 12/24/94? That event produced long duration damaging winds in my area on par with the 03/02/18 wind event.