ChangeofSeasonsWX

PVD only got 3.8 on 12/09/05, however it was super intense for a couple of hours with blizzard conditions and thundersnow. Maybe we can get something similar with this?

Nice! So aside from rainfall amounts, how does this 1/10 cutter compare to the 1/13 bomb in terms of wind potential? Also, could the wind surpass the 12/18 system from last month? I know wind is very hard to predict but what would the ceiling be for these?

If it's gonna be a cutter might as well go all in with a Novie 1950 wind monsta

Even still, it only shows 1.9" by 7am Sunday at PVD? I didn't expect the rain/snow line to last for that long north of the south coast.

Wow the BOX map is really conservative. I know they usually are but I wasn't expecting that.

See ya there!

I was kidding but it would be nice to see a Novie 1950 at least once in my life. I mean 70-80 sustained at inland locations and it wasnt even a true hurricane? A storm like that is probably like 100 year storm at least. If the 10th turned into a 1950 I would be willing to sacrifice the storm on the 7th.

November 1950 incoming?

Something that surprised me looking back at historical records for PVD is that despite being near the coast, it's actually very rare for them to maintain 100% rH throughout an entire day. 2023 has had five days with 100% rH, one on January 4th, one on April 30th, and then three this past month on December 3rd, 26th and 27th. Before that, the last time there was 100% rH for an entire day was May 13, 2002! More than 20 years ago. Delayed reaction to the Hunga Tonga eruption maybe? It released all that water vapor into the air.

Some people on here act like we live in the Mid-Atlantic when it comes to snow. lol That ain't happening, at least not in our lifetimes. We will always have good and bad winters. Everything goes in cycles. In fact, the amount of snow for this area has been on the increase the last few decades so I don't know why everyone always freaks out each winter. lol I know we've had a shitty stretch lately but the 1980s were a lot worse. It WILL snow again people just relax. lol

This is similar to last year's storm on 12/23 in the PVD area. Definitely a decent wind storm but it doesn't hold a candle to 03/02/18, which had many hours of sustained 40-45 with frequent gusts to 60-65. The winds with this one have been sustained 25-35 with a couple of gusts to 55-60.

Yeah I've noticed lately that they seem to be more conservative in general. But like even on the outer cape and islands the HWW only states "gusts up to 65". Usually they go 70 or higher in this type of event. Then again, I don't think that the guidance is as bullish with this one as it was with those other events. Still a solid event but probably not another 10/29/17 or 03/02/18.

Still time to pull a November 1950? LOL But in all seriousness I'm curious what kind of enhanced warnings they would use if that magnitude storm happened today. 70 sustained in HFD, 80 sustained in BOS, gusts to 110 in Concord? I feel like a HWW wouldnt suffice...maybe like a PDS HWW or something?

I remember the southerly screamer on 12/12/2008 and then the SWFE just a week later on 12/19 with a quick 8" in like six hours, followed by another good snow event on New Years Eve. Would be nice to get a repeat but very unlikely.

Of course 9 times out of 10 wind events fail in this region, with no complaints from most on here, but a select group of us still always hold out hope for a decent event. A top tier, long duration wind event like 12/24/94 or 03/02/18 is super rare and wont happen, but maybe we could still get decent winds like the 12/23/22 system last year.

Some of the models are showing a slight possibility of a STC from this. In the unlikely event that it verifies, how would it compare to say 12/24/94? That event produced long duration damaging winds in my area on par with the 03/02/18 wind event.

I would say that big ice storms south of the Worcester and Mass Pike area are much more rare than even big wind events. North of the Pike its probably the opposite with December 2008 and several others happening there, but less wind than far SNE. November 1921 was for ice in SNE what November 1950 was for wind, ie benchmark, top end, multigenerational event. Maybe even more rare than getting a major hurricane.

I remember that one well! I was very young. Winds weren't the big story with that in my area at least. February 8-9, 2013 was by far the most intense winds I've ever seen in a blizzard.

Probably they just don't want to deal with the damage, which I can understand, especially people who live around a lot of tall trees. But personally I will take crazy winds of that caliber over snow as well. Snow is fun too don't get me wrong but I think the roar and sheer power of wind is much more fascinating. I hope I get to see something like that in my lifetime. For me personally March 2, 2018 is the benchmark for long duration intense winds, although a microburst in July 2012 also gave very brief 80-90 mph gusts and blinding rain.

Must've been nice to be alive in that 1938-1960 period with like five major wind events in 20 years. 1938, 1950 Appalachian, Carol, Edna, and Donna. I think 1950 impresses me the most besides 1938 because how often does HFD get 70 sustained with gusts to 100 from a non-tropical entity? A repeat of 1950 would be really neat. Imagine another 1950 only in January or February with 70 sustained winds and like -50 wind chills? Would be insane to witness firsthand.

Another big HWW event that doesn't get the attention that it deserves is 03/02/2018. It was a totally different synoptic setup from this but for the PVD area it was a benchmark system imo. KPVD consistently had sustained 40+ mph for several hours with gusts 65+. Those winds coupled with over 2 inches of rain created a lot of damage, even though the trees had no leaves. Even 10/29/2017 earlier that season didn't achieve this feat in the PVD area, and yet that event was apparently more notable for inland areas.

Realistically what would be the return period for that event in this area? I read that 1950 caused 70 mph sustained at HFD which is pretty remarkable if accurate. In terms of non-tropical wind storms it was basically Columbus Day 1962 for the eastern US. Has any other non-tropical event even come close in terms of wind?

Yeah, like I said, chasing one is just not the same as experiencing it at home. I guess beggars cant be choosers but it must be nice to live in like Florida and not have to travel very far to see one. Floridas longest hurricane gap was what, 11 years between 2005 and 2016? I would never want to move to the south either though since I'm not a fan of the heat. So I guess you cant win...

I know that I will probably get a lot of flack from people over this but I wish that I had the opportunity to see just one major hurricane in my llifetime. I greatly envy the people who got to experience legendary storms like 1635, 1938, and even Carol. I never even got to experience Bob in 1991. Sure, the blizzards that we get are a thrill in terms of extreme weather but even 18 inches of snow isn't as thrilling as 100-120mph winds. I'm a homeowner but I can deal with the damage from a storm like that. Just the thrill of seeing 100+mph winds is worth it for me. I've heard that the return period for a major in New England is 70 years but from 1635 to 1815 there wasnt a major....imagine if we have to wait another 100+ years to get another one? Carol was only like 70 years ago. I guess I could always take a trip to Florida for a major but it isn't the same as experiencing one in your own town.

What about the 1896 San Ramon hurricane in August/Sept? Surprised nobody has mentioned that one. Took a Sandy-esq turn into SE Mass. Also interestingly, it was the same year of the last major hurricane in the Big Bend region before Idalia.