ChangeofSeasonsWX

Just like some of those storms in the 80s lol 40 years later and although forecasting abilities have gotten so much better this just goes to show that they are far from perfect.

8-12 is definitely nothing to sneeze at for sure. I bet that back in the 80s people would kill for a storm like that. Like I said in my earlier posts this was never supposed to be a high end event to begin with. I personally think that PVD will end up closer to 8" than 12" though. Kind of a moderate warning event but nothing major. Maybe I'm wrong. But I will enjoy it regardless of the outcome.

As much as I would love for the PVD area to be in the jack zone considering how bad this winter has been, latest guidance doesn't support it. Hope I'm wrong.

Yeah the jack zone is definitely gonna be north of PVD.

Ah I figured. Didn't want to get my hopes up. NW RI always jacks in these events.

Based on the southern trends is it possible that the jack zone will reach PVD area? It seems to me like the southern trend isn't as big as some are making it out to be and therefore the jack zone will still be north of PVD.

Does anyone have a link to that site where you can see the top analogs for a particular storm?

When was the last time that we saw a significant snowstorm with these sort of ratios? Paste bombs usually max out at around 6-8 inches but this one has higher potential than that. Dec 92 is the only really high end paste bomb I can think of. I recall that Feb 2013 started out wet also but became powdery pretty quick.

A quick Google search brought this up: "Issued for sustained or gusty winds of 35 mph or more, and falling or blowing snow creating visibilities at or below ¼ mile; these conditions should persist for at least three hours." I wasn't aware that there was a temperature criteria.

Can you elaborate? You don't think that three hours of frequent gusts 35mph+ is likely? Why would it not meet the criteria?

Will a Blizzard Warning eventually be issued for eastern areas? Wind criteria seems like it will be met.

I will be happy with a 6-8 type system around here. However, the low end estimate by BOX of 4" would honestly be a disappointment considering the potential this had. Of course I would love to see 12+ around here but its just not realistic with this particular setup. Too warm for us in southern areas.

Looks rather underwhelming for my area tbh but still likely our best storm since Jan 2022 so we take.

I guess I can understand why BOX went with 4-10, with only 4" for PVD and BOS. This never really had that blockbuster look to it anyways. Still, I will definitely take a moderate event like this over the past few events this winter that turned to rain and gave us a sloppy mess.

Last night some were saying 12-16 from this. Lol That was never possible to begin with due to how fast this is moving. Overall looks like a moderate impact system. 6-10 widespread.

Going to be another 02/14/07 inland runner?

Yep BDL picked up 1.3", HFD 1.3", and BOS 0.5", which is very strange. ORH got 12.7" which is obviously still crazy for May, but 7.0" in PVD is even more remarkable considering its coastal location. I wonder what dynamics were in play with that storm to cause an ORH-PVD zone jackpot?

I still find it hard to believe that PVD got 7.0" on May 9-10, 1977. I can't even imagine what that much snow would look like with fully leafed green trees. Not even October 2011 produced even close to that much snow around here. I wonder what the return period is for May 1977. Probably like a 500 year event.

I went to Alaska for two weeks last September. I wanted to go in the winter but I'm not especially fond of extended sub zero temperatures. But with their near record snowfall and the ratter that its been so far here I kind of regret that decision. Buffalo, NY would probably be a better place to visit. Not as cold but still lots of snow.

I took a trip up there last September (early September) and it was already snowing up in Healy! I didn't want to come back lmao I should have spent this winter up there.

Yep some people never learn lmao People get way too emotionally invested and it clouds their judgment. Models aren't even close to being accurate and people are already throwing out the next 2+ weeks.

We have had lots of late season biggies in the past. Not saying that will happen this year but the potential is definitely there. Sucks that it won't stick around for long but it's better than nothing at this point. I mean, March 1956 happened so ya never know.

I've noticed that for some reason its extremely difficult to get big snowstorms on days that are abnormally cold. Typically we only get clipper systems when its super cold. I'm assuming that this is due to cold air generally having less ambient moisture? These are the top five coldest days (by average temperature) in which PVD received six or more inches of snowfall: 1). 01/16/1965 - 8.0F - 6.4 in 2). 01/22/2005 - 12.5F - 7.0 in 3). 02/07/1967 - 13.5F - 7.3 in 4). 01/10/1942 - 14.5F - 6.8 in 5). 01/20/1961 - 15.0F - 8.2 in

People always talk about 2011-12, but at least that season had 7.6" on January 21 and then 80s and summer-like in March. These past couple seasons have had no redeeming qualities.

That's right I forgot about Dec 1981 that was another big one here. March 1984 turned to rain so we had about 3 inches of cement and yeah Feb 1989 was big on the Cape for sure.