ChangeofSeasonsWX

Nothing is stopping them. I believe it is a storm total record not just a 24 hour record. I'm just doubtful that it happens because they would have to get another foot of snow after 7am this morning. I suppose it's possible.

A part of me wants PVD to break 1978's record but despite the totals nearby I don't think it's very likely to happen. Maybe they will be 2nd.

Did anyone else notice that 165 mph gust at KPVD? Lol

Wow 59 knots at KPVD. Stronger than the 54 knots they saw in Nemo. Impressive

KPVD 54 knots

1978 was like a 1 in 100 year event probably. 1888 was the last one of that magnitude, although it hit further west than 1978 did.

1978 must have been like a 1 in 100 year event or something. 1888 and 1978 are the only two events that come to mind where 40-50 inches was measured in multiple locations for SNE. So maybe later this century we see another one.

I've always said that at some point in my life I would like to see something IMBY that rivals 1978. I certainly don't expect every biggie to reach those numbers but someday it would be fun to experience that. For the Cape 2005 was bigger than 1978 and for CT I guess it would be Nemo or 1888. 1978 is still the benchmark in the PVD area and while I know that this one wont surpass it, maybe it would come close if these top tier solutions verified.

I wonder what the models would've showed if 1978 happened today

I know that I should be grateful that we at least had a big one on January 25th but after many dud winters it honestly doesn't feel like that was enough. This hobby has very little reward sometimes.

That's true. Don't get me wrong, forecasts have improved enormously over the years but still far from perfect. You would think they would keep improving but it seems like performance plateaued a while ago. We haven't improved much at all in the past ten years. I've heard that they predicted the 1993 storm of the century like a week out but obviously that was an exception in those days.

I wonder when the time will come when we can accurately predict snowfall amounts seven plus days out. I know that we have had storms that were easier to predict than others but it seems like recently we still can't figure out snow totals for a storm even 24 hours in advance. I wonder if AI will change that?

I wouldn't mind another March 1956. That was like a March version of February 2015. Even March 2018 for that matter. That was a great month. Started out with probably the most intense screamer in my life. I put it above October 2017 and 2021. Then just a week later we got a solid 10" snowstorm and then a few more minor events later that month. Just give us something interesting that's all I ask for.

It doesn't compare to the likes of Valentines Day 2016 or Feb 2023. We just don't see temperatures like that very often in this area. In the past 35 years PVD has gotten below -5F only three times. 01/16/04, 02/14/16 and 02/04/23. Overall it is a rare event and there are many winters where it doesn't even get down to zero. Hence why we are now in USDA Hardiness Zone 7A.

The closest I have ever seen to a ground blizzard in videos from New England is on Cape Cod. I guess it makes sense considering the lack of trees there and the relatively flat topography, plus being so close to the ocean. Getting winds strong enough to lift large amounts of snow that has already fallen is not easy. You need to also have a very cold airmass. It's hard to get strong winds into inland areas. The strongest winds that I have ever seen in a blizzard was during Nemo in 2013. It's too bad that it happened at night so I couldn't see anything.

Something that I was just thinking about that we never see here in New England for some reason is ground blizzards. I know that they are super common in the Midwest but is there a reason why we never see them around here? I always thought it would be fun to experience one. Full whiteout conditions with a clear blue sky. We have seen 60 mph winds in the winter before, so I would think that all you would need is those winds to pass over after a cold snowstorm like the one we had last month. Has this area ever experienced something like that before?

Yeah both VDay 2016 and Feb 4 2023 hit -9 at PVD which is the lowest in my lifetime and it's not even close. Jan 16 2004 hit -6 that's the next lowest. I would like to see a really potent cold wave with -15 to -20 at PVD but the odds of that happening don't seem especially good. I think we are more likely to get a 110-115F heat wave than break 1934 all time record low.

I mean, is there any setup in todays climate that would even support getting those S tier record lows? PVD got to -13 in 1976 but even the 70s were significantly colder than todays climate. I remember the afternoon of January 21, 2019 only got up to 5F in PVD, but even that is super rare. I think what is more surprising to me though is the fact that even with a warming climate we havent had any heat waves that rival the all-timers like 1911 and 1975. It seems like the 70s had more extremes with both cold and heat for some reason. We just don't get that anymore.

Out of curiosity, do you think that in our lives we will see another cold wave that rivals the likes of 1857 and 1934 or is that basically impossible with the current climate? The current record min at PVD is -17 in 1934. 1943 and 1976 came close though. I mean, we did see -9F at PVD in both 2016 and 2023 but before that, the last time it got that cold was back in the 80s. But will we ever see negative teens again in this area? I would've thought that with the warming climate we would've broken the all time highs from 1911 and 1975 by now but surprisingly that hasn't happened yet either.

Wouldn't it be something if we surpass it on the anniversary? Lol

I know I'm not the only one thinking this but even if this one does miss us, I really hope that we can at least score another moderate or major event before the winter ends. It would be nice. Why cant Feb 2015 be the climo norm every winter? lol

Yeah unless we start seeing significant west trends then PVD area is out. Maybe a flurry or something.

My father always tells me that in the winter where he was growing up near Waterford, Connecticut, once it snowed the roads stayed snow covered for the rest of the winter. How is that possible? I know that the climate has gotten a lot warmer since the 60s but even still there must have been at least a few milder days that melted all the snow off the roads? The only other possibility that I can think of is did they not salt the roadways back in the 60s and that's why they stayed covered? That just doesn't seem possible though. How could people have driven rear wheel drive with snow covered roads?

The last four winters have been like that really minus this last storm. Even the 80s had a few big ones, so I guess the last storm was akin to one of those big ones in the 80s.

Yeah I mean, considering some of the S Tier analogs that were on the table several days ago its definitely disappointing that we could be looking at a whiff. I mean even scoring a few inches would be nice. Just goes to show how unreliable those early models are. Hopefully we can get some positive last minute trends.