ChangeofSeasonsWX

I wouldn't mind another March 1956. That was like a March version of February 2015. Even March 2018 for that matter. That was a great month. Started out with probably the most intense screamer in my life. I put it above October 2017 and 2021. Then just a week later we got a solid 10" snowstorm and then a few more minor events later that month. Just give us something interesting that's all I ask for.

It doesn't compare to the likes of Valentines Day 2016 or Feb 2023. We just don't see temperatures like that very often in this area. In the past 35 years PVD has gotten below -5F only three times. 01/16/04, 02/14/16 and 02/04/23. Overall it is a rare event and there are many winters where it doesn't even get down to zero. Hence why we are now in USDA Hardiness Zone 7A.

The closest I have ever seen to a ground blizzard in videos from New England is on Cape Cod. I guess it makes sense considering the lack of trees there and the relatively flat topography, plus being so close to the ocean. Getting winds strong enough to lift large amounts of snow that has already fallen is not easy. You need to also have a very cold airmass. It's hard to get strong winds into inland areas. The strongest winds that I have ever seen in a blizzard was during Nemo in 2013. It's too bad that it happened at night so I couldn't see anything.

Something that I was just thinking about that we never see here in New England for some reason is ground blizzards. I know that they are super common in the Midwest but is there a reason why we never see them around here? I always thought it would be fun to experience one. Full whiteout conditions with a clear blue sky. We have seen 60 mph winds in the winter before, so I would think that all you would need is those winds to pass over after a cold snowstorm like the one we had last month. Has this area ever experienced something like that before?

Yeah both VDay 2016 and Feb 4 2023 hit -9 at PVD which is the lowest in my lifetime and it's not even close. Jan 16 2004 hit -6 that's the next lowest. I would like to see a really potent cold wave with -15 to -20 at PVD but the odds of that happening don't seem especially good. I think we are more likely to get a 110-115F heat wave than break 1934 all time record low.

I mean, is there any setup in todays climate that would even support getting those S tier record lows? PVD got to -13 in 1976 but even the 70s were significantly colder than todays climate. I remember the afternoon of January 21, 2019 only got up to 5F in PVD, but even that is super rare. I think what is more surprising to me though is the fact that even with a warming climate we havent had any heat waves that rival the all-timers like 1911 and 1975. It seems like the 70s had more extremes with both cold and heat for some reason. We just don't get that anymore.

Out of curiosity, do you think that in our lives we will see another cold wave that rivals the likes of 1857 and 1934 or is that basically impossible with the current climate? The current record min at PVD is -17 in 1934. 1943 and 1976 came close though. I mean, we did see -9F at PVD in both 2016 and 2023 but before that, the last time it got that cold was back in the 80s. But will we ever see negative teens again in this area? I would've thought that with the warming climate we would've broken the all time highs from 1911 and 1975 by now but surprisingly that hasn't happened yet either.

Wouldn't it be something if we surpass it on the anniversary? Lol

I know I'm not the only one thinking this but even if this one does miss us, I really hope that we can at least score another moderate or major event before the winter ends. It would be nice. Why cant Feb 2015 be the climo norm every winter? lol

Yeah unless we start seeing significant west trends then PVD area is out. Maybe a flurry or something.

My father always tells me that in the winter where he was growing up near Waterford, Connecticut, once it snowed the roads stayed snow covered for the rest of the winter. How is that possible? I know that the climate has gotten a lot warmer since the 60s but even still there must have been at least a few milder days that melted all the snow off the roads? The only other possibility that I can think of is did they not salt the roadways back in the 60s and that's why they stayed covered? That just doesn't seem possible though. How could people have driven rear wheel drive with snow covered roads?

The last four winters have been like that really minus this last storm. Even the 80s had a few big ones, so I guess the last storm was akin to one of those big ones in the 80s.

Yeah I mean, considering some of the S Tier analogs that were on the table several days ago its definitely disappointing that we could be looking at a whiff. I mean even scoring a few inches would be nice. Just goes to show how unreliable those early models are. Hopefully we can get some positive last minute trends.

Yeah I envy those who got to experience 2005 on the Cape. I'm sure that even the pictures don't do it justice. Even in my area it was more snow than I had ever seen in my life so I can't even comprehend what it looked like out there. 1978 was more of a widepread impact though. It dropped huge totals over a larger area whereas 2005 was definitely way worse than 1978 on the Cape.

Yeah 2005 was definitely special for the Cape but not many of us lived out there to experience it.

True. Actually the top three that I have memories of are 2005, 2022, and 2015. 2013 had viscious winds which was a plus as well. But my father tells me that 1978 was in a league of its own. I hope I get to see one like that in my life.

I'd like to see another 1978 at some point in my life. Not the gridlock of course but the same snow totals. 1996 and 2005 were great but from what I've heard they were still quite a few steps below 1978.

Right 2015 is a perfect example of that where every factor had to line up perfectly and it did. I hope that this one crushes us also. We all need it after this stretch that we've had.

I never said it wont happen, just that the odds of getting two back to back storms that drop feet of snow is low. Just talking probability thats all. Doesn't mean that it wont happen.

I know that its all random and not casual at all but it seems to me like the odds of getting two storms with 1-2 feet of snow within a week of one another has to be pretty low. Therefore, the odds of it happening are not that great. I hope that I'm wrong though.

Yeah I mean some of the early analogs were pretty potent. 1996, 2015, 2009. The ceiling is/was very high with this. Not sure if it still is though.

I've always wondered if I will ever see a blizzard in my life that beats 1978 totals. With climate change it seems less likely but we've still had some massive storms the last couple of decades so I guess anything is possible. But it goes to show you just how rare and special that storm really was. 1996 came close but that was six months before I was born. 2005 was the biggest of my life and that was fun. 2013, 2015, and 2022 were amazing also.

I'm assuming you're talking about strictly synoptics? PVD got barely any snow in Feb 99.

So if the current forecasts end up verifying, would this be the most snow we have ever gotten from a SWFE in this area? Assuming that this even is a SWFE? I've heard some people say it is and some say that it isn't. But there aren't any analogs for this type of setup?

When was the last time that far south areas like PVD experienced a significant ice storm? From what I can find the last one was 1973. Based on the problems that they cause I'm not sure I'd want to see another one, I'm just surprised that the return rate for ice storms is lower than the return rate for hurricanes.