ChangeofSeasonsWX

Even Portland, OR is having a better winter than us. The forecast for them was a dusting and instead they measured 10.8" at the airport! https://www.oregonlive.com/weather/2024/02/is-portland-facing-another-february-snow-storm.html I wish that we would get a positive bust of that magnitude.

This makes a lot of sense. Also, especially with regards to hurricanes, it seems like there are certain tracks that we just don't see anymore. Aside from the lack of NE hurricanes, a good example are classic Caribbean cruisers like Allen, Gilbert, Ivan, Dean. 2007 was the last one but in the decades before that they were quite common. Maybe we get one this year but they really do seem like a thing of the past. The records are too short of a time span to make any correlations and hurricane tracks probably have nothing to do with CC at all but I still find it interesting.

Yeah we have definitely seen less EMLs in recent years than we used to. June 1, 2011 Springfield tornado is the one exception that comes to mind. There was a decent EML in place that day. I'm not sure if May 15, 2018 had an EML in place either. But even still I would say that neither of those events compare to what we saw regularly in the 80s and 90s, and of course 1953. Also, June 6, 2010 had massive potential with very high end parameters in place, but it still busted badly if I recall. Maybe it's just coincidental that we haven't had the right atmospheric setups that we used to get that brought us severe weather and hurricanes. It's probably just random cycles rather than some CC induced change but who knows.

I've wondered the same thing before. It seems like both hurricanes and major severe outbreaks used to happen in the northeast, but not anymore. How about the May 31, 1985 tornado outbreak that produced 9 violent tornadoes? Or the May 31 1998 high risk day that produced seven F3's in NY state? Or all the derechos we used to see in the 80s and 90s. We don't see any of that anymore. Why is that?

You can say the same thing about severe weather. Why doesn't the northeast US get the same major severe outbreaks that we used to get? Multiple intense derechos in the 80s and 90s, 05/31/85 tornado outbreak, also a high risk day on 05/31/98 that produced seven EF3's in NY state. Don't forget about the 1953 Worcester tornado. I wonder what was the return period for that is? The 50s were crazy. Major hurricanes and F4 tornadoes. You would think that those events would be more common nowadays with all this warming climate, but they're not.

Alaska was amazing. I would honestly move there if it wasn't for the astronomical prices of literally everything. Plus the fact that its in the middle of nowhere and food in the supermarket is not fresh at all. There is also a lot of homelessness and drug and alcohol abuse, particularly in Anchorage.

It's crazy how West Hartford gets the jack even though they only had a WWA. I thought we would do better in the PVD area but temps are just too marginal. Not accumulating as good as you would expect despite good rates. A few inches of cement. I agree with others I'm ready for the warm weather.

PVD might very well end up in the jack zone after all.

I wonder if BOX will actually have to bump up their maps a bit given latest trends?

I have a feeling that this event will be remembered for a very long time, and not for the reasons it should be.

Yeah thats what makes this particular event seem rather unprecedented for the modern era. At least since the turn of the century. I can't think of another time where they got it this wrong.

RI and SE mass got smoked in that one still at least. This one looks more extreme. Could only be the cape and islands if HRRR is right, and it might trend worse even still

Do you think at this point we can unanimously agree that this storm constitutes the biggest winter storm bust of the 21st century?

Absolutely this. I doubt we will ever be able to get it right 100% of the time, although I do agree that if the Euro verifies this would be the biggest bust in many years. Maybe since Feb 13, 2008? It's rare for them to get it this wrong this close to the event but this goes to show that it can happen.

Just like some of those storms in the 80s lol 40 years later and although forecasting abilities have gotten so much better this just goes to show that they are far from perfect.

8-12 is definitely nothing to sneeze at for sure. I bet that back in the 80s people would kill for a storm like that. Like I said in my earlier posts this was never supposed to be a high end event to begin with. I personally think that PVD will end up closer to 8" than 12" though. Kind of a moderate warning event but nothing major. Maybe I'm wrong. But I will enjoy it regardless of the outcome.

As much as I would love for the PVD area to be in the jack zone considering how bad this winter has been, latest guidance doesn't support it. Hope I'm wrong.

Yeah the jack zone is definitely gonna be north of PVD.

Ah I figured. Didn't want to get my hopes up. NW RI always jacks in these events.

Based on the southern trends is it possible that the jack zone will reach PVD area? It seems to me like the southern trend isn't as big as some are making it out to be and therefore the jack zone will still be north of PVD.

Does anyone have a link to that site where you can see the top analogs for a particular storm?

When was the last time that we saw a significant snowstorm with these sort of ratios? Paste bombs usually max out at around 6-8 inches but this one has higher potential than that. Dec 92 is the only really high end paste bomb I can think of. I recall that Feb 2013 started out wet also but became powdery pretty quick.

A quick Google search brought this up: "Issued for sustained or gusty winds of 35 mph or more, and falling or blowing snow creating visibilities at or below ¼ mile; these conditions should persist for at least three hours." I wasn't aware that there was a temperature criteria.

Can you elaborate? You don't think that three hours of frequent gusts 35mph+ is likely? Why would it not meet the criteria?

Will a Blizzard Warning eventually be issued for eastern areas? Wind criteria seems like it will be met.