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LakePaste25

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  1. LakePaste25
    Curious to see the S hemisphere height anomalies for the ensembles. As they go into the cold season, are we seeing their counterpart to the deep Aleutian/GOA low? Asking because I don’t have access to good SH height anomaly ensemble maps.
  2. LakePaste25
    Getting (cautiously) more bullish that we see a classic Nino response and the W pac warm pool will not be as influential. The suppressed convection in the W pac, believe it or not, is actually being under modeled now.
  3. LakePaste25
    Pac jet came in stronger than expected in Feb 2024, which pushed the jet exit region well onshore over the western US. One of the few times we got true Nino forcing, we got too much of it.
  4. LakePaste25
    Yup but I’m still taking a wait and see approach because it can still respond between now and Oct. Zero complaints if I end up with a more Nina-like summer and it’s hotter and less rainy.
  5. LakePaste25
  6. LakePaste25
    Plenty of gas in the tank out in the west pac and Nino 4 regions to go higher too.
  7. LakePaste25
    Yup. To eradicate that W pac warm pool (which is what we want), we will need to maximize on this potential.
  8. LakePaste25
    Can’t wait for the “not a torch!!!” copium on twitter because it’s 45 and cloudy in nyc under a CAD setup while it torches everywhere else
  9. LakePaste25
    If you’re talking the difference between 97-98 and 15-16, I don’t think it matters as much as one might think it does in terms of winter prospects. 97-98 could’ve easily had a mid atlantic KU blizzard just like 82-83, 15-16 did. Maybe 15-16 had more cold periods, but that’s it. The reason we prefer a 97-98 outcome is because it will eradicate the W pac warm pool.
  10. LakePaste25
    Yeah Dec ‘97 vs. ‘15 were night and day especially for the high elevations of NE. There is a difference between mild pacific air from a jet extension and mild pacific air from a jet extension + subtropical Gulf flow from the SE ridge. The former (‘97) is serviceable.
  11. LakePaste25
    can really see where this makes a difference in +/- precip anomalies. With a traditional Nino look and more suppressed convection in the W pac on the EPS, you get the typical deep +precip anoms in the traditional Nino southern stream belt in the SE with -anoms in NE. whereas the GEFS, with its lingering convection in the W pac, has a more muted precip signal.
  12. LakePaste25
    The EPS appears to be modeling less lingering convection in the west pac vs. the GEFS and CMCE.
  13. LakePaste25
    I’m going to wait until September or October to see if we can do anything to that west pac warm pool first. Agreed that’s where we’re headed if it lingers.
  14. LakePaste25
    “La Nino” pattern with the strong southern stream (relative to seasonal normals) that curves northward due to the se ridge. Could be due to the lingering warm pool that @bluewave refers to
  15. LakePaste25
    hopefully this pre nino summer is a bust and we set multiple heat records throughout the summer. I love hot and humid summers
  16. LakePaste25
    I wouldn’t say that coming 1 degree short of the all-time record high for May is “normal”
  17. LakePaste25
    Just recorded our 2nd earliest 90+ degree day on record at ERI. The earliest was 5/16/1991. Definitely not typical for a pre Nino May.
  18. LakePaste25
    The key is to just roll with it. Fire up the BBQ on Christmas and make something good
  19. LakePaste25
    Pretty much my preliminary thoughts until we see cool anomalies replace the west pac warm pool like during the past super nino events.
  20. LakePaste25
    March and April were warm in the east. March was +6 here at ERI and April was +5.1.
  21. LakePaste25
    My cool/wet summer for the great lakes will go up in flames unless we start seeing this
  22. LakePaste25
    FWIW, whether it’s more like 1997-98 or 2015-16 doesn’t really change the odds of a big NE snowstorm or two between breaks of the pacific jet IMO. Just really getting into semantics here of what more closely defines a super Nino pattern in the western hemisphere.
  23. LakePaste25
    Yup, but this exact issue that Ben points out is what many of us believe contributed to the super torch of December 2015, where you had the Nino-like pac jet extension, but then systems cut in a Nina - like SE ridge. Will be interesting to see if Aigle is right, and thus the forcing is so overwhelmingly strong that we see a more broad pacific jet-southern stream connection similar to 1997 instead of 2015.
  24. LakePaste25
    As Ben is pointing out, we could be dealing with some convection further west than the typical super Nino configuration due to warm waters extending further west. Makes sense to me unless we can get some actual cool SSTAs in the west pac. Same theme we’ve been dealing with where it may cause split forcing or alter the standing wave forcing to some degree.
  25. LakePaste25
    Many of us like to look at global temperatures because it helps us understand expectations for the upcoming winter. If there’s far more warm anomalies than cold anomalies, it means our chances of landing on one of the cold anomalies is lower before you even factor in any favorable or unfavorable indices. Like playing a game of minesweeper and you’re adding more mines.
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