TradeWinds
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Everything posted by TradeWinds
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The flip flop continues for the potential storm end of Oct. EPS pretty much all out to sea.
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There will be so many flip flops from Yucatan hits to out to sea to nothing at all, which very well may be the end result. But we watch. The FL peninsula as a whole has been spared. We had an inland tropical storm warning in Orlando with Isais but our highest gust may have been 25 mph.
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Who cares what people think. I have no respect for anybody seeking attention by having to announce their intention to block somebody. I have seen plenty of ridiculous posts all over this forum, especially when I lived up north and winter season came along. The majority of this site lives of fantasy storms. Back to your post...look at the bright side, you had lots of flood watches this year. lol. I had some patio repair work back in August and had to clear off my lanai. I kept things inside for hurricane season and almost put them back this past weekend. I figured I'd wait another couple weeks just in case. We should know more by early next week.
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It really has been an odd but solid year for tracking. I hate so many were impacted though. We will see how October materializes and whether the FL peninsula can keep the force field going. It's the only place that hasn't really been impacted. Isaias had warnings but very minimal impact to FL.
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Western Gulf. Climo typically closes the valve on TX and most of LA as the fall weather pattern sweeps in cold fronts. TX has had 2 post September hurricanes in 120 yrs I believe. Most common threats are New Orleans to Florida.
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The 850 voricity is strong. I can see an invest but not a storm. It is 2020 though so you never know. We had some good squalls come thru earlier. I have some video but too large to post.
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Land cane
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That little yellow X off FL giving us some squalls today. NWS Melbourne has a special statement for coastal areas of Central FL last night. 4-8" of rain and 35-40 mph gusts. Several buoys had confirmed 40. That was a surprise.
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First call..Louisiana.
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Well 00z fantasy land has the Western Caribbean storm
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We have the force field going on for most of the peninsula sans Irma I am curious what Oct brings. GFS long range hints at lowering pressures but it's always there on the 384.
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That must have been it! Thanks for the clarification.
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I'll have to do a search and find it. It was in one of these threads. I believe the Laura thread or this one. UKMET was leading if I remember. One reason models might be off this year is due to less input resulting from covid.
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Read an article recently that compared models for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Euro was the worst in all lead time categories even less than 72 hrs. Not saying it will not verify but the track record is off this year so far.
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If that run were to verify, the hypothetical Caribbean/EGOM system would've been Teddy. The GFS does a weird monsoonal split and breaks off the upper axis first that becomes Sally. It then allows the southwestern extension to close off into Teddy and it gets captured by strong ridging / easterly flow. Sally merges with CATL troughing. Teddy drives into the CONUS. Meh...looks gimmicky and likely to not model that way in future op runs with any consistency. A few EPS members have the exact same scenario although it evolves differently up front. I agree though the ops will change a lot.
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Everybody who lives here knows Tampa is Central Florida. Your post is correct.
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It appears a CCKW will pass 3rd week Sep thru early Oct. The Gulf and western Caribbean could spark but no guarantee. Anybody know if those are factored into models?
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Depends. Sometimes models can sniff out general disturbances or lower pressures in a region of the western Caribbean/Gulf. I've also seen invests pop up on the tail of a cold front. I'm not sure if models consider CCKW into their forecasts but I'd be surprised if we do not see an uptick in activity in this area 3rd week of Sept to mid Oct when a CCKW passes.
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WTH is wrong with everyone? I just asked where the Para ensembles is for heaven's sake.
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Where is this on weather models?
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If ever there was a case in point, this is it. 5+ days out you might peek at the operationals for patterns, precip, derived winds, feature locations, and especially entertainment purposes, but for estimates on TCs and their storm relative potential, you go with the different ensemble packages all night and day long. I don't mind beating that dead horse into a smear until frequent posters get it. Agreed. I'm curious of low pressure placement and pressure on ops but I quickly jump to all the potential patterns.
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I was looking at the way it rams into a mega ridge and thought....how? lol. Also do not buy the rapid development. That Atlantic looks dry like it has all summer.
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Those 500mb heights first week of September sure look to signal a potential EC threat if something forms.
