TradeWinds
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Everything posted by TradeWinds
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Squalls really picking up in Orlando
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My official Hurricane Statement has increased every update since yesterday. Now says peak wind 55-70 with gusts 100. I'm near MCO.
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I'm near MCO. Local news said center to come through around Kissimmee/St. Cloud. Called for possible sustained 50-70 with gusts to 90-95.
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Every deviation also changes who gets the excessive rainfall.
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Maybe just wobbles? As a personal side, N is better for me as I'm on the southern edge of the 15+ rain forecasts.
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If a South of Tampa landfall occurs, I hope several here learn that models can sniff out changes. Too many posted here to throw them out...it's too south.
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Agree. Very small and very fast. Charley still produced Orlando's largest wind ever recorded. 106 mph. Shows how fast the storm moved from S. Florida.
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Very similar agreement on track between GFS and Euro. Euro is 24 hrs to get from landfall to Orlando. Wow. Drops a few lollipops of 30" Temple Terrace to Zephyrhills. Would be surprised if NHC doesn't adjust to at least I-4 corridor track next update.
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On radar, it may have wobbled but looks minimal. Also looks to have wobbled back on the NHC track. But agree on longer term path.
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GFS landfall Siesta Key. Will be curious to see the ensembles. If they trend east, I would think NHC 5 AM track might be quite different.
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All Rosen properties in Orlando are $70/night through the weekend to help evacuees. Pets welcome. Very cool.
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https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1574583510647586826?t=fDbooImte-kIuTL96oSmYQ&s=19
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This is why those in the cone should always prepare. It may still go N to the Big Bend. They should be equally prepared.
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I posted earlier about this. Several models were starting to see an escape. Local met even seemed surprised his model went east this evening. Maybe a useless model but more and more concern several are showing this. Also watching trends on radar. Last update shows storm moved almost due N from 5 to 8 update. If it passes just to the left of the island S of Cuba, then Ian is officially riding the right edge of the cone.
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I'm only to hr 57 on weathermodels. Sarasota is about 100-110 kts. Tampa about 70 kts. That's 850.
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GFS takes an odd jump almost NW between hr 30 and 36. Not sure what that's about.
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I'm watching radar and it still looks NNW to me.
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Sounds like NHC projecting landfall about Crystal River/Cedar Key based on 5 PM discussion.
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Crazy https://twitter.com/FranklinJamesL/status/1574404763927515136?t=_lVZIE4UfHbGpFSxaLHs1w&s=19
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18z guidance has more members leaning towards an escape to the Atlantic or at least a path inland. It's all gonna come down to the timing of the trough vs High pressure building in.
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HMON is similar. It caved today after showing panhandle hit after hit. I'm not saying it's correct either but just because they feel the effects of the trough and touch the Atlantic don't make them absurd.
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Looking back on the last 3 NHC wind and position estimate forecasts, track looks decent. A hair to the right of track. But noticeably weaker. 11 PM had the slower development. 5 AM was aggressive with winds ramping up all day and now they scaled back some at 11 AM (but a sharp spike up to 140 briefly). Perhaps the early AM models were a tad too strong with this system early causing the west track. We'll see.
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Probably why the NHC kept track closer to GFS mean than Euro at times.
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HMON looks like it is doing as well as GFS and better at 72 hrs. Interesting that the tracks for several days were consistent with GFS to panhandle/big bend and jumped way south at 6z (TPA to Jax).
