TradeWinds
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Everything posted by TradeWinds
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I thought Levi said stronger earlier was the GFS solution. Euro was stronger later.
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Sure is looking like it is consolidating. Pinwheel at those hot towers?
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You can see on the 18z ICON 500 heights it holds back the trough in the Ohio Valley as Ian comes off the tip of Cuba like the Euro. At 12z it was more progressive like GFS. Flip flop.
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Lows in Northern Florida are near 60F early this week. The dry air is real up there.
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So you want them to fake a forecast?
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I was laughing at a lady yesterday at Costco in Orlando. She bought enough water to fill a swimming pool. And you could see panic in her almost running with her cart. Smh.
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Through what hr? I'm seeing 1.4" through hr 192 (Thurs).
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This forecast track is an I-4 special
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Charlie turned quicker because the trough came in stronger than forecasted. It was an unseasonably strong trough.
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I moved here from the DMV a decade ago. My advice is please don't panic or panic buy. DMV was the worst in weather situations with clearing shelves from stores. Download a hurricane checklist and use that as a guide. Listen to local authorities.
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That would make more sense but my map says 953 MB at that position.
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GFS 18z vs 12z a little east at hr 108. Closer to the tip of Cuba. But 33 MB stronger if I'm reading that right??
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A lot keep talking about how chilly it's been. Florida must not be participating. 93 with heat index of 105 IMBY. But I looked at temps tonight across the East and was surprised.
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Noticeable change N and E thru 60
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Land had no bearing on the hurricane direction. There was an unseasonable trough that came in stronger than forecasted.
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2022 Atlantic Hurricane season
TradeWinds replied to StormchaserChuck!'s topic in Tropical Headquarters
I keep looking at 1950. Florida has been hot, dry this summer especially on the eastern side of the peninsula. I've have about 5" of rain since mid-June. 1950 had a very similar set up in the 850 winds and Andy posted about it earlier. It all changed mid to late Aug into Oct when the pattern became wet. Just throwing that out there. -
Could be a wobble. I also remember a few 12z members showed a jump towards land approaching Sarasota then a jog back W before N. I thought it was odd but might be realized.
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Risk of tornadoes expected to increase Naples to Sarasota around 10 PM per SPC
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Came together nicely. I see those dark reds just popping up. Extrapolated, it has deviated from the pink line. Maybe a wobble, maybe from consolidation, or maybe an early N-NE trend.
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Are any rainfall totals verifying? Seems like a lot of dry air is mixing in this storm.
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NWS Melbourne midday analysis confused me a bit. They talked about Elsa's more westward track than anticipated and new guidance suggesting a slightly more west track. It looks to be verifying slightly east. Who knows.
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Agree but the Euro had it over water up past Cedar Key. Any track east would minimize time to strengthen. NHC did nudge their track slightly east. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds. Sometimes there is a surprise.
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It just seems that SW shear is acting like a wall. That flow on water vapor seems to be like a wall. Might be reason for the NNW jog.
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Looks east FL thru SC but still exits by VA Beach. Edit: the difference seems to be favoring a more NNW track rather than NW exiting Cuba.
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I plotted all estimated center locations by the NHC since 5 AM today. The movement certainly looks like it shifted from NW to NNW. I suspect they'll get better coordinates when the plane flies in but it will look odd to see any jump to the W. The trend favors the east cone track but time will tell.
