Maybe. Depends on what was initialized. NHC position went almost NNW from 2 PM to 8 PM. Not sure the big jump N was forecasted.
2 PM: 15.7N, 80.0W
8 PM: 17.0N, 80.8W
NHC and some models hint at a west jog sometime overnight. For now, the storm keeps riding the right side of their cone. Will be curious to see if it wobbles west at some point.
The current location is exactly where the Euro had it dropping below 1000 mb for the first time across several ensemble members. Not sure why that would deviate current forecasts.
Density ensembles show more error east possible than west. Appears current position riding right side of cone. Would think NHC may tweak right a hair if any changes at all.
Big difference in ICON 12z yesterday (top) vs 12z today (bottom) is a faster Ian and a slightly sharper trough. Wonder if new data ingested yesterday caused the shift to the east. Will be curious what other 12z models show.
People are just following real time obs and trends. It's called weather forecasting. And the cluster has moved east, probably because models are trending faster. Might not pan out but something to watch.
Euro drops below 1000 mb about the latitude of Jamaica. GFS is 985 at that point. I hadn't seen intensity on UK or ICON. Seems GFS continues to underperform on short term intensity forecasts.