Bob Chill

Look at the run over run change in the Npac. It might be ugly but it's also a sig improvement from 0z...

Eps is picking up on a discrete cold shot with a longshot threat centered around the 17th. Like Cape mentioned earlier, the gefs has a similar idea. As long as there's something to track it keeps me sane in an otherwise insanely bad pattern

Agree, and 12z eps is actually a sig improvement d10+ in the Atl. Better than the gefs now... Overall the Pac is stable and overwhelming through d15. We need that ridge/trough alignment to change here at some point. Any meaningful change there is getting pushed out in time every day.

Hard to see no progress over 2 full weeks... I'd have to look at some composites but this Jan seems awfully similar Jan 2002 going off memory

Shave a few degrees off low levels and add a tenth or 2 of qpf and a widespread 1-4" would happen

Seeing strong consensus for the first time next week. Soundings along and west of 95 (close burbs) look good in the mids but the surface to 925mb temps are sketchy.

Ens have been moving the wrong direction down the line. Seeing consensus on a continuation of a nasty -pna without enough from the Atl side to offset anymore. Is what it is but my confidence of getting out of this mess in Jan is declining. Pac NW weenies will be running naked through the streets for at least a couple weeks

The D18 extended gfs snows on us

All disclaimers apply to op runs late but man, I really liked a lot on the 18z gfs from d10-16. D18 is an extrapolated snowstorm. Need gefs to agree on the speed of kicking out that nasty trough.

Keep it simple... just hug the d11-12 18z gfs and pray it's right. Best run in days for getting out of the mess we're in...

Doesn't look like the nasty -pna is going to release its grip inside of 2 weeks so that part sucks but enough hints that the Atl will do just enough to put us back in the game even with a -pna. It's comical that we're intently tracking and excited for a pattern change that still isn't good in the big picture. Lol. Yep, that's where we are... again... experts at tracking how to get out of shutout patterns.

EPS improved the Atl d10-15 but the western trough is still in beast mode and not moving so hurry up and wait. lol

We'll see how it goes but the medium to short range trend has been norther/warmer for several weeks now. Keep getting chances even in a jacked up pattern and something could break right but I'm very skeptical that this can break in anyone's favor on the sub. If I'm wrong I'll gladly admit my bust while I'm shoveling.

Aleutian ridge progresses and starts shoving the massive repeating trough in the west eastward so that's something. It's just an op but it doesn't support the ens idea of being back to something at least "acceptable" before the 18th. Still plenty of work to do at the end of the gfs. My main concern is the repeating trough ends up hanging on far longer than we want. We'll know one way or another within the next 3-5 days.

EPS is similar with the transition in the Atl. From everything I see, ens agree that we transition back to a more wintry pattern during the 15-18th period. That's my focus and we'll see if that holds and starts moving out in time. I'm sure you're thinking the same. Looks like some pretty anomalous warmth on tap from the 10th-15th. Very impressive 850 anomalies showing up from long range. We may touch 60 a couple times this month before anything good happens.

Jan 2019 barley counts...it was heading towards a bust and we got saved at last minute How can you live in a world where a reverse bust that drops a foot+ barely counts? 18z gfs says screw my post about things might be improving. Looks worse at the end than the beginning. Uh oh

We have to finish shoveling this first though. At least in Rockville anyways

GEFS is the fastest transition to a return to cold continental air in the east but the EPS is now looking very similar in the progression d10-15. GEFS has a better Atl and EPS has a better Pac but both ens show the MA back in the game around the 15th. Trend last few days has been to speed up the transition so I'm becoming encouraged that it's real and not a mirage. Like I've said multiple times, we can sneak in some sort of jacked up event in overall crappy patterns. They don't come easy and I haven't been enthused with the recent teases. Maybe the 7th works out maybe not but by the middle of the month we may actually be back in the game for real winter wx.

Now we're talkin! EPS with a nice shift in the EPO region. Starts building before this panel but this is a very good sign for run over run h5 changes

Euro op def sped up the reshuffle towards a better pattern. We're starting to see some consensus build on the way we get out of this wretched pattern.

Some of the d10-15 850 temp anomaly maps the ens are spitting out are really impressive for BC. Even for NW Canada standards... it looks like a legit cold factory setting up and it will spill into the conus not too far down the road.

There's going to be very anomalous cold building in BC dropping into the west sometime around d10. That airmass will likely make it here (imho). Modified quite a bit of course but it will be our first real continental airmass since mid Dec. Root for a stemwinder in the midwest that opens the door back to more workable cold. A big wound up storm will help compress flow to our north and reshuffle the deck in a good way. If the GEFS has the right idea then we're good for getting out of the toaster bath boiling in the dumpster fire before Feb. Context of my post (which I know you always get) was not that winter is magically blasting back in and off to the races. Just that the longwave pattern will FINALLY allow for real continental cold to move through fairly slowly instead of hit and run ridge/trough. Storm track should morph into a more W-E orientation. Get that type of storm track with just "normal Jan temps" and we can score something that may actually need a shovel instead of wind/sun/salt/broom. lol

GEFS continues to show the escape hatch opportunity within 2 weeks. Another run compressing atl flow with the scand/uk ridge pressing poleward. If the aluetian ridge simultaneously pushes polward then we have a convoluted HL block that will rearrange the flow in the east. I like this panel a lot... ETA: EPS is going the same direction just not as quickly. It has been ever so slowly trending quicker with an improved Atl/height pattern in the east. If this holds in time then we're back in the game in under 2 weeks

That's what I was trying to say. Not that we get a coupled epo/pna combo that locks in for weeks. Just that embedded in progressive flow will be periods where the pna and/or epo will cooperate more often than be hostile. Still need choas and luck and all that stuff. And we all know what to expect with progressive flow because we've been dealing with it nearly every winter since Jan 2011. Lol

My gut is telling me Feb is going to feature a -epo in general and maybe it builds before Jan is over. Same with the pna... I believe Feb will have a +pna in general. Not looking like the atl is going to have stable blocking so I'm not excited about Feb or think it will be a memorable month. At the same time I don't think Feb will be a disaster like the pattern that set in since the week before Christmas and appears to want to continue for at least 2 more weeks. I've conceded that this isn't going to be a memorable winter so any event that requires a shovel will be celebrated.