Bob Chill

Here's another one... Haven't had cold air to the north like this since the first half of december. Could be a red flag tho... There's an easy to see battleground on the panel above and we're on the correct side. Can this type of look actually hold and not degrade? Starting to look like it might. Ops are already showing it setting up by d10. For now...

I'll reluctantly admit that I kinda like what all 3 ens are doing d10+... Cold continental air dropping out of Canada with an W-E oriented boundary. We haven't seen much of that this year so skepticism is warranted for now. However, this type of upper level pattern can be friendly here. We tend to do ok with boundaries like this more often than not. Not a big storm look but no doubt one that can deliver sheared/overrunning events. I really like the 12z EPS d10-15 h5 mean. You can easily envision cold pressing south over a wide expanse with the door open for the stj to get involved. General storm track would be between the light blue and white contours

EPS shifted for the better next weekend. Still far from high probability. Better than 0z though. 10 out of 50 stripe our region with a decent event.

Not specific to the AO but all high latitude regions on our side of the pole. NAM state covers more real estate than specific teles like ao/nao etc. A +NAM has below normal heights on the balance through the entire AO/NAO domain space and vice versa.

This hr168 12z euro panel is a great visual showing how lame temps are... there's no real winter cold within 3000 miles of where we need it

Exactly. Good column windows have been really short all season. Slower trends amplify that problem. Good columns were brief on the balance of 2013-15 but flow was fast and active so timing worked out a lot. Not to mention that cold air constantly plowed all the way into the deep south regularly There is a 50/50 locking the hp in so this setup is better. Problem is the airmass being locked in is weak sauce to begin with. Goes back to our other issue... can't buy deep cold when it matters to save our lives

A quick cutter or runner would be the least complicated. Trending slower like we're seeing makes it much more complicated no matter what track

@frd I highly respect HM and love his approach. He's a unique thinker when making sense out things. That said, he's mentioned a flip to the better multiple times this year and none of the scenarios he's basing his outlook on have materialized. No different than what we've been doing in here. So now late Feb is the "new target" for greener pastures. I'll believe it when I see it in real time. There is nothing anyone can post or write about that increases my confidence in a better regime. We're in a never ending wash cycle of different ways to have a crappy east coast snow pattern. Will it change? Maybe but my money is on nope.

@psuhoffman what makes this year so f'n frustrating is there's always a glimmer or path to success showing up and it has created a lot of false hope. That's been compounding every week and there hasn't been a single actual reward (maybe 1 small reward for a select few) for enthusiasts so far and winter is closer to the finish line than the starting line. We talk about persistence and climo beating NWP on the regular. This year falls squarely into the catrgory. After some brief optimism in early Dec it's been nothing but persistently bad in the short/medium range. How many periods of interest have held up inside of 5 days? Once? Until something holds on inside of 5 days I'm 100% sure it won't work out. That's where my head is at.

Trust me... I've thought it through countless times. I'm too far removed from College to get a science degree. I was a math whiz at one point but old memories fade and I would have to start at square one with all classes. I'm retiring in 8 years and no interest in restarting a career path. Hobby will have to do. I do use my wx skills to trade UGAZ and DGAZ every winter when setups line up. It almost feels like stealing. Lol. Not that I don't lose sometimes but I cut my losses quick and let my good trades run. Anyone can do of if they have the right mindset, confidence, guts, and of course some luck is required. I've tried to teach friends over the years but they can't control emotions. Emotional trading usually ends in disaster or big losses. Lol

Relfecting back on my entire life I've often wondered if I missed my niche path. I read meteorology textbooks in college for fun. Lol. Who does that? It's a tough field to excel financially and that is what held me back. This was before I knew about prop energy trading firms and how much they pay for an edge in wx prediction.

If next year is anything like this year I'm retiring from this dumb hobby. I was semi retired in the fall but old habits die hard I suppose

GFS is quickly redeeming itself after vomiting diarrhea on us next weekend

All in man. All I want to do is break out my crusty dusty cobweb covered shovel just once. Don't care who gets screwed in the process.

It tried but the bob chill storm is near dead You guys named the damn thing. I said like 20 times in 2012 that I never want my name attached to a storm again. The midweek failure is on you guys. Not me. Remember superbowl weekend in 2015? Lol. This one could be worse because we didn't get any precip out of that debacle. I'd rather have that compared to what the gfs just did. All in ICON unless the euro holds.

Not a cutter specifically but vast majority of solutions are rainstorms. Gefs has never once liked this window either

It's not an unbelievable run though and fits what the gefs and eps show as the mostly likely outcome. Certainly cant punt yet because that's silly. Can't ignore what the majority of the data shows tho

Winterwxluvr says we need precip and not cold so we're right where we want to be

That dig to mexico and early close is a disaster. If we haven't struggled with cold air start to finish this year I would consider tossing the gfs. Fits into the eps big rainstorm idea

Convoluted triple phase setup. Could go boom but what kind of boom? Thunderstorms?

We don't want that to close off at all before it's east of the MS. Airmass is already marginal. Cutting off the flow early will spin up a lot of warm air

Don't have the heart to post this in the disco thread... looks very familiar doesn't it?

18z GEFS continues to not like the d8-10 event. Mostly rain solutions for everyone. Gefs has a warm bias right? RIGHT?! Lol OTOH- gefs looks really good for the next event in line.

The 10 count was within areas east of the mountains so a general statement because location matters as usual. Here's the 24hr snow meteo for Gburg Here's the qpf meteo. Lot's of big rainers in the bunch it seems. About 1/3rd have over 1" qpf. Considering what we're seeing on the ops now it's easy to envision the razor thin margin of error. This can all easily improve with better track/colder air etc but anyone who gets married to this "snowstorm" from long leads is setting themselves of for a disaster.

Given the general setup I would think there are mulitple ways for it to work out. Op was a unicorn. I think we can all agree there. Not seeing a number of 1-3/2-4 deals implies that this may be an all or none type of scenario. Crapload of time before it all starts really mattering. Would feel better if ens consolidate towards a more unified solution by the end of the weekend.