Bob Chill

@frd the nw trend from med/long range has been happening for years. Especially when there's no blocking. However, it works both ways. The 2013-15 stretch had an unusual # of south trends from that range. The key is to identify the recurring pattern and use it as a mental adjustment to nwp output. This year is a no brainer considering how terrible tne LW pattern has been. Eta: i wouldnt say the control has a tendency with storms. I only post it when there is one. Lol

Was just about to post something similar. Control's value is in the medium range when it either agrees or doesn't agree with the op. Other than that it's just another ens member

This is an easy one. I ain't no spring chicken and no way would I trade-off 20 years for any reason.

I didnt mean to single out the goalies. Too many easy goals across the board. That's on the entire team. Not happy about it. It's getting into their heads.

We've often joked over the years saying "hey, at least it's not 2001-02". If something doesn't break right then 01-02 will be replaced with 19-20. Lol. The real kick in the nads this year is having literally one of the best non-nino southern streams I've ever seen. A dry spring wouldn't surprise me either. Which is good imho.

Yea man! I like it. Looks like great trail riding potential. Just need to dry out from the foot of rain first

Practically every year that they look amazing they also include a stretch of wtf. Prob just that. They aren't going to make it far in the playoffs when their net isn't properly protected. That's in the back of everyone's mind I'm sure

There is a good side to having a +++AO...

I did a nice trail ride in the lake frank / meadowside area yesterday. Learned I was a little out of shape tho... Felt like an athlete when I got home followed by feeling like a 70 year old when I woke up today... LoL Doesn't take long to get back in shape. A couple weeks of riding 3-4 times per week. Need this fookin rain to knock it off first

Yep, AK vortex stole our hopes and dreams. Even the -3 AO in March 2013 ended up with significant temp problems. Overall the Pac overwhelmed a typical friendly AO/NAO regime. It made up for it bigly in 2013-15 when the Pac overwhelmed a hostile AO/NAO regime.

12-13 was the standard struggle for us. Tale of 2 halves near the cities. -PNA killed us early but that slowly progressed to pretty decent blocking towards the end and it did sorta pay off. Mar 2013 was just a subtle bad break at the last minute. It was a great setup for WAA precip followed by a closed ULL. The problem was the ULL deepened rapidly down in southern VA and cut off the WAA feed. Then it took a jog SE off the coast of VA beach and we were too far away from the action to get anything sustained the next day. It was a marginal temp situation (common) that could have been a really big event or even a good one as is if it was colder. It was simple reasons though and had nothing to do with the year itself being a disaster. The thing about our region is we are in the battle zone. We can get walloped so it "has the feel" of a big storm town but they simply don't come easy because of all the little things (mostly temps). Near misses and struggles are part of normal daily life here. Always has been since I've been around MD (1972) and always will be. For people that have been around a long time it's been a bit of shock and awe since Jan 2000. We've had quite a few very large events. Way more than any previous period (60s included). If anything, it's unusual and anomalous that we've had so many big storms over the last 20 years.

2011-12 was warm with unrelenting west tracks. Wasn't as wet as this year though iirc.

Nah, it's like a rubik's cube to PSU. It takes a long time, maybe some luck, and some definite cheating and you can eventually solve that stupid thing.

One of the oldest and most cliche sayings will never go away... Misery loves company... And miserable people will do anything and everything in their power to build an army of misery. Luckily I'm immune to that S. Just a teaspoon of rational thought is all it takes.

Not gonna lie... this winter has been hard on me. I kept being reasonable and lowering my expectations. Got to the point where I settled on just one 4" storm and call it a winter. No sign as far as we can see unfortunately. If I could make it snow in your yard I would do it immediately. I'll do it in my yard too but I"ll have an inch more. Like 24" for you and 25" for me cuz my yard is #1 in the galaxy.

We already have that figured out. Lol. Full winters are looong in NH. We'll tow our RV down to the Florida coast for Feb-Mar or Mar-Apr each year. Anywhere warm and nice really

I totally understand location specific. I was just pointing out that we had 8 events on the season and most got above normal snow. That's not a disaster in my book but agree that 2016 was the last biggie regionwide. Fairly active with most events over 1". I don't remember what bwi got. Foggy memory says mid teens. Years like this remind us how bad we can suck. Every decade since I've been alive has a disaster imbedded in the mix. Hopefully this is getting the dud of 2020-30 out of the way...

Last year was a very decent year for our area. Top 30th percentile easy. Yes, Baltimore crew got shorted in Jan but it was still a respectable event outside of the low lying UHI areas. Everyone can feel however they want but I really don't follow any of the logic saying Jan 2016 was the last good event and it's been a multi year awful stretch. All statistical metrics say otherwise. The 2000 decade only had 02-03 or 09-10 if you think last year was terrrible Eta: Jan 2000 was such an incredible reverse bust that it made the whole 99-00 winter memorable.

It was awesome and kind of annoying. Warm enough to sweat good on the long climbs on the trails but coming down the other side was cold AF. Sweat, shade, 47 degrees and 15mph breeze = uncomfortable. Still had lots of fun but got a couple ice cream headaches

If there was ever a time to just green light freeforall it's now. 10 consecutive days of rain and/or no snow is all but guaranteed. I did get a nice mt bike ride in today so a little lemonade in a lemon winter

I've been tracking progress with MD looking to adjust policy to retain retired residents. Nice to see steps in the right direction. It's not just that though. We want to get out of MD for a lot of other personal reasons. The natural beauty of NE is as close as you can get to out west without moving there is the #1 reason. NH is a semi easy decision. Prop taxes are high but about the same as we pay now. We'll get a nice home upgrade though because we're going rural with off the grid amenities. Won't have to trade off because of location like we do now. All of my relatives live in CT so it will be nice to be closer. Or at least no longer having to drive 95 through NJ and NY. I'm so sick of that drive man... so sick...

I can't find anything interesting to post about for the next 10 days. Pretty much unanimous that beyond a true freak event there's no chance. Time for another break I suppose.

Another strong technical indicator of how bad this winter has been... Mosquito talk on Feb 9th

Oh heck yea man. It's the safest and most effective free drug there is. I have 3 bad discs so I have to be careful (no jogging basically) but I walk a minimum of 3 miles every single day. I love it and so does my dog. I add in lots of hikes and bike rides. Almost daily in the warm season. I also have a very clean diet along with daily vitamins. If I'm on the run out the door early I eat a protein bar and nutrition shake. I have zero appetite in the AM but I always pack nutrition and energy in. Brain and body need gas even if my stomach isn't interested. I wasn't always like this. I got fat and lazy in my 40s. Bad path for sure... now I'm back to my teenage weight. Was hard AF but the rewards are worth it 10 times over.