Bob Chill

Every reshuffle out west or above us has produced the same sensible result. Can we get a good storm still? Sure, crazy writing that off just cuz. If the eps is right with the AK vortex down the line a good storm will remain highly unlikely and elusive no matter what models show. I'm always forward looking in life. No matter what happens the next 2 months, I'm going to Myrtle during moco spring break in early April. Can't wait for that and it keeps me happy in the face of the epic disaster winter we're having. I wish late Nov/early Dec never happened. It sucked me in when I expected a dud all fall

That doesn't mean anything to me. Neither does ATL getting snow. Who cares? My yard on the other hand... my muddy soggy yard with flower bulbs coming up.... that matters a lot and it sucks

It's possible but that was a tiny little shortwave and hard to model. The fail next week is meaty. Models aren't going to flip around too much from here me thinks. Now the GFS, ICON, and Euro have a nw or overhead track. Multiple euro runs without wavering too. CMC is the outlier until 0z

It's hard to go wrong anywhere in NE or north. Very rugged and beautiful basically everywhere. NH has no state income tax and that's very important as we are trying retire early. MD is awful with both income and property taxes. No chance we're staying here unless they drop income tax. We all know the chance of that is 0%. If we both end up north we can hook up, ride sleds and weenie out. Lol

My wife and I currently have New Hampshire as #1 on our list for when we get out of here in 8-10 years. There's something about the landscape and geography of the NE that hits us right. We'll no doubt have a couple sleds to rip through the backcountry during winter. If we could we would do it today. Just isn't possible yet...

I'm really happy for PSU getting the goods out west but if I'm being completely honest... it makes me a little mad too.

They got a decent storm in Jan. Warning level accums in some places. I think md line folks are all close to or above 10" on the year. On topic... 12gefs made more than a little shift towards the euro op. Euro seems set on a west track. Could be wrong but it appears there's some convergence toward that solution

Gefs looks horrible for next week and no improvement through d16. itsnothappening.gif

@Ji how about the wiz being 3 games out of the last playoff spot with an 18-32 record. Lol. God the eastern conf sucks this year. Not complaining though. 10 games under 500 could do it

One of MD's problems is their athlete graduation rate. Especially the stars. Every red hot recuit presents the same question... 1 year or 2? Lol. Smith is going to be a great pro. Soft touch with FTs and 3s and a serious presence inside. NBA teams drool over that stuff.

Agreed. Williams years were tenacious. Duke and NC feared every game they played. Williams was a little cursed in the tourney though. Losing too many first and second round games when it should have been a win. They got some crappy draws with seeds but still... gotta lock that S down if you ever want to win it all. I loved the Williams years though. I used to go to at least 3-4 games a year. What an environment!

It's possible but my yard has seen its share of rain with 35-38 surface and good mids this year. This is another setup where the northern tier can pull something off while I shovel rain... again

I think if things stay the say they are or slighty improve....you would see an improvement with the temps Yea, I'm not poo pooing anything. Just being realistic at D5. Maybe this is the one that hits on all luck cylinders. I'm not making any definitive statements. Just pointing out the issues that need to be overcome beyond a snowmap

Checking under the hood of the cmc, here's surface temps at 7am thurs with precip knocking on the door. How snowy does this look?

Neither. Just sit back and wait until all models look the same. Nothing will be decided in advance until we have that. Based on recent runs we aren't remotely close to consensus yet. Just watch and understand that this is not an easy way to get anything. Even if the mids are good, what will the surface look like?

It has a chance with these requirements: mid level winds overhead pressing down out of the north and a clean slp track below us. Only the cmc has that now.

@Ji cmc is good. Keeps mid level winds northerly and pushes back against sw flow. Nice press behind as well. If everything starts moving that way it will drag me back in.

Not very different. Even though the ouput was better the inherent problem is identical. I don't think 6z should have any snow for us. 850 cold is weak AF and I'm sure other levels like 800, 925, etc are also going to have their own issues. Deep cold is nearly always a requirement with a southern stream wave. We haven't had deep cold since the first 10 days of Dec. A good rule of thumb is we need 850s to be -5 on approach and the 0c line at least in central VA but NC is better. Can a wave on a boundary work? Absolutely but not with marginal air. We need 2013-14 air for that scenario imo

Best team since 01-02. They arent that good of course but overall depth and talent isn't that far behind. The Diamond Stone years were decent but not this level. I wonder how long Smith stays in college tho.... Early in the year the terps looks typical with good talent but had a very hard time locking down in the second half and giving fans heart attacks. Now they turn it up, play very tight D, and take advantage of opportunity. Last 5 minutes last night was very impressive. Team said screw this crap, lets take them out of the game physically and mentally and they did it.

Look at mid level winds on approach. Cold is shallow and sw flow is running right in line with the upper level ridge in front of the SW. The "cold" is total weak sauce. The real cold and arctic front is up by the Canadian border. As the shortwave approaches the sw flow keeps getting stronger. Weak cold and sw flow + ridge = good luck here

Gfs needs to improve by hr96. This is not a snow setup in our region.

I've raised the white flag for any type of long duration good regime this winter. Base state is hostile and time is just about up on turning that around. Doesn't mean we're doomed. Just need to treat every possible window/event in isolation as they present themselves and not forget the general base state isn't good. Is what it is. I'm not even bummed anymore. I'm ready for spring. I'd love a storm or 2 or 3 of course but if nothing breaks right then so be it. Can force a circle in a square or whatever the saying is.

Human nature is to find reasons/explanations for everything. With weather we can "make a case" for just about anything but in reality weather does whatever the F it wants. I don't use any type of "streak" except maybe the PDO and AO/NAO. They do follow some sort of multi-decadal pattern where a bias towards + or - does prevail for a time. Even then, any given year can break out from whatever it's "supposed to do". I honestly think the closest analog to weather is the stock market. The absolute best in the business with the most powerful computers and endless data still only hit 50-60% of the time. That can be offset with risk mitigation because you actually have control over keeping your losses small and let your winners run. Weather cannot be controlled AT ALL. We could get 3 blizzards between now and the end of March and the only explanation is luck and chaos.

Actually it's been the opposite this year on average. Control has been stingy AF. The only time it's posted is when it's good. That's not very often....

A lot of evidence showing up that says the GFS slider solution is on crack but it has the CMC in its corner. Euro has the Ukie. Cage Match: Europe against North America