Bob Chill

Icon shifted in the right direction with a hint of confluence. A few more ticks with lower heights north of us and it would prob snow. I dont buy the drawn out multiple precip waves. More likely to be consolidated imo

Cold air sure isnt far away. Certainly reasonable to believe things can easily shift enough for better outcomes. Hit and run confluence or sneaky high at the right time could make a huge difference. I mean its not like we've seen sig shifts in 24 hours recently... just the wrong direction. Maybe since models are showing crap and doo doo right now things can break the opposite direction and be good..... nah. That's crazy talk

Tracker needs to put a half mile limit on quoted posts. My scrolling finger is broke now. Go nam! Would be relaxing having things breaking and falling

Finally took a look at 12z runs. Lol. Busy af. So glad it's a 3 day weekend. I havent changed my mind from what I was thinking yesterday. Mixy messy for sure. Definitely surprised that tues could be straight rain. Didnt think we'd be that warm... Nothing available to push the boundary eastward. Bummer. Not sold on straight rain. Wouldnt take much to flip to some sort of frozen. No thoughts on the thurs potential. A lot of stuff has to happen first. Hopefully the general idea doesnt fizzle before we get there.

Seeing all the people rooting against ice is the clearest signal ice in on the way

There is nothing easy to forecast over the next 7 days. Very very touchy setup. It will amplify the typical "little things make big differences". I for one am not expecting a clean snowstorm anytime soon. I'm also skeptical of a mostly snowstorm. The primary reason these juicy storms appear to be on the way is strong midlevel flow out of the gulf. It's just pumping and there's not a strong signal for a 50/50, legit confluence, sprawling hp etc. Big snows (if they happen) will be on a knife edge unless we can get something to bully back midlevel warmth from rushing in.

Dude, you run a weather page on facebook and you say it's a lot of effort to click through something other than surface plots? Am I understanding this correctly? Lol

Youtube is stuffed with easy tutorial videos and countless other sources are easily found around the web. All 101 stuff and not super technical. It does takes time and commitment to learning if you are willing. Check out Joe Cioffi's youtube video called "roadmaps to the atmosphere". Excellent explanation of 500mb plots for wx enthusiests. There is no easier time than today to learn about the stuff. The resources available are countless

One of my rules with sw midlevel flow and dicey midlevel temps in general is if models show the mix line pushing north of EZF you can expect nova and dc to mix no matter what they show from there. Same with my yard 75% of the time.

I was just making a general observation and pinning it on Ji because I really do like the guy and a little tough love goes a long way

Maybe you should move away from just clicking the play button on pretty weather movies and take a look at soundings, 850 temps/wind direction, and maybe go straight crazy and consider 700mb panels too. I mean every single answer to every single model question is available on the same site everyone uses. So the question is, does anyone look at anything other than pretty wx movies? I'll go out on a limb and say few do and it's a shame. That's why every storm is a freakout circus. Cuz pretty wx movies dont even scratch the surface of a marginal event. Which is 80% of the events here.

Look at the "highway" height pattern at h5 leading in. Then take a look at midlevel (850) winds. Pumping out of the southwest too. That's what runs the moisture up and mix is part of the solutions (assuming models are right). There will be little if any snow punching deep into the arctic airmass because it's literally a brick of cold dry air. The battle zone is where the action is and the battle zone includes midlevel temp problems. It can def switch to a snowier solution but we need confluence to build (horizontal highways) to our north. That will fight off the warm surge. Anything is possible really. It's very touchy even at close range.

Not time to mess around today but I briefly looked at the icon surface panels at 114-120 and then looked at surface temps. I was in CO in 1994 so didnt experience that wild winter. I remain very very intrigued for the next 7 days. Just wild what's being spit out daily now

Just don't understand the no snow part. It's taking a snow track Honestly, if storms are going to run at us like that on the periphery of arctic air/tpv, you'd have to expect all ptypes. We could just as luckily get a really good snow hit as a mixed event or even plain rain/zr. It's an unusual pattern and it's here to stay for a bit it seems

I'm not much of a stickler for official stuff like that. I'm much more focused and interested in weather breaking lots of stuff and destroying things and crippling power grids and things like that. You know, the simple pleasures in life

0z gfs is 100% no doubt the iciest 7 day model run I've ever seen. You have to root for that. All timer. I've always said I want a foot of ice. Well, maybe not realistic in 1 storm but...

That's some scary S right there...

Wonder how many times the euro has to bust before DT stops copying its snowmaps. I model hug too but man, I know when to let go also

He's actually a bot. There is no way a real person would act in such a way.

When are we supposed to change to snow? Prob as soon as heavier returns start. Soundings look fine to me.

Dropped to 31. Light sleet. Sticking to driveway (cement) and patio. Gonna be a lil crusty

Prime time starting for you. Should be a paste job of sorts. There will most likely be some overnight suprise jackpots. No idea where but your area is looking good

I'm not worried. It just wants to snow here now. We're good.

Battlezone is right overhead and more and more moisture is streaming in. Qpf surprises are much more likely with this type of setup. Like in the spring with a stalled front. Sometime it pours more than forecast. Eta: models always have trouble with placement and amounts with these deals unlike organzied low pressure systems. Ive said this a few times but model spread just like this week is totally normal. Try tracking a juicy stalled front in the spring and you'll see. But nobody cares then... Models are getting bashed and its not right. They've done a fine and typical job. Not all events are equal

With this basically being a stalled warm front type of precip event, mountains aren't going to make much of a difference downstream. Plenty of gulf moisture streaming in. Clippers and any other weak northern stream systems are way different. Often painfully different for my yard. Tonight is pretty juicy for all under the best stuff. Hopefully my yard in particular