Bob Chill

Picked up just over 2". Looks like 2.25" is a fair measurement. Sleet is going to pack it down so that's probably all she wrote for my yard.

MoCo band is the best rates yet. Legit mod snow

Looks like the sleet line is trying to advance with that band. Hopefully it washes out one more time and we get a nice shot of snow b4 the flip.

Yellows moving through MoCo still all snow. Nice dendrites too

Very interesting column. The warm nose causing the initial sleet mixed out and colder air/evap cooling won the battle. Can't walk the line any closer between snow/no snow for the close burbs.

Unless ground truth is different CC radar shows the sleet line here:

Yellow band moving through MoCo is mod/heavy snow. No sleet.

Gotta hand it so the Euro for getting an extremely borderline column mostly right. Easy to be skeptical when it was on an island and climo says no snow. HRRR did a good job **this** time as well. Just over 1" and all snow right now. Bar exceeded

Staying all snow now with large dendrites in Rockville. This is the main show b4 flipping to sleet at some point. Euro/hrrr did a great job with complicated column.

All snow and nice dendrites now. Kept flipping back and forth since onset so nice to see "quiet" snow.

Just wait for the november airmasses in January

ICON improved from 18z. Still a little strange with mid levels and ptype but ticked towards a colder solution.

Dude, the nams and hrrr are the best runs yet and considering it will be snowing or sleeting in less than 12 hours they might actually be partially right. 18z euro was really good too. Maybe this is the year of reverse busts....

Even if it's 100% sleet I'd still measure an inch on the patio table. Come on hrrr.... be right this time

Yea man, getting interesting for us burb folks. If it's below freezing at onset and ptype stays snow until noon or later it would be pretty incredible. Sleet likes to sneak in quicker than guidance with WWA precip so I'll remain skeptical.

A little colder when it counts. 18z was kind across the board. HRR is looking great last couple runs too. Considering normal high temps are still in the upper 50s, we're getting really lucky to have a shot at measurable.

Posted in the wrong thread. I'm hugging the hrrr until the 0z euro comes in big. All snow through 11am and still coming down...

The hrrr says DT will bust along the corridor... lol. All snow for most through 11am and more to come.

Yes, very intriguing... Dec 02 & 09 had early blocking. A nino with Dec blocking is the perfect recipe for a shot at front and back loaded winter. Seasonal guidance is gung ho for Feb being good and it's logical for nino climo. Dec never looked that good until recently. Most recent euro and jma seasonals jumped on a great Dec look. Now we're seeing that come into focus with ens guidance... heh

Ive been really quiet this fall until recently. Winters here are so fickle that I've backed off caring about long range anything (except enso) until we get into Nov. This is the time of year where winter starts to show its hand when there are strong anomalies in the NH pattern. Unfortunately they haven't been breaking the right way for quite a few years now. We all got sucked into the unreliable SAI stuff a few years back where there was "supposed" to be a -AO. By this time the last 4-5 years it was pretty obvious that the winter was going to start with a fairly strong +AO but we held out hope because SAI said otherwise. I'm not falling for that S anymore. Especially the SSW crap when things are breaking the wrong way. Lol. This year is wanting to put together the 2 most important things by a mile for the MA (nino & -AO). We'll see how things look after turkey day. My guess is the -AO is legit but too early to go all in. If ensembles and monthly guidance is still showing the look were seeing now through Dec then I'm officially all in. Even bad luck probably won't derail a decent winter this year...

Man, GEFS & EPS are showing a straight up MA snowstorm pattern setting up at the end of the month. If that's a look into the Dec base state of the NH pattern then it's going to get pretty busy here.

I'd say so. It wasn't just a little colder clicking through the panels. It was a clear step towards the euro imho

18z 3k went a little colder in the mids than 12z. Step in the right direction at least...

That panel is the best ens mean I've seen since 09. Jan 16 was a great setup but the block was bootleg. GEFS is spitting out classic panels right now

I don't like the euro being by itself with the coldest solution. Would go a long ways if the 18-0z suites tick colder in the mids. If they don't then it has the feel that the euro is too cold imo