Bob Chill

I pretty much love the latest euro seasonal. Basically implies that all 3 met winter months could deliver in some fashion. None of the tragic features that scare the F out of me are there. Considering its Nov already and Dec looks really good is adding to my growing optimism. Nino's rarely deliver big cold so I wouldnt expect any seasonal models to show a cold winter. However, Nino's generally deliver the most imortant thing for our region (southern jet/miller As). All 3 months look great for that possibility.

I absolutely like seeing the cooling east of Japan. That's the only part of the current pac ssta configuration that I don't like. It's got a long way to go before a legit +pdo sets up but we have plenty of time and mid latitude surface temps can get bullied this time of year and during winter of course.

We're still a few years away from outdoing the late 80s/early 90's stretch. I'm thinking we should be good by winter of 2021-22.

Impressive seeing the eps having some solutions in the mix that give AL, MS, and GA snow in November.

just for giggles... check out #2 analog. lol

Both my front and back yard are crowned and through years of practice I have it down to a science. Keep it mowed tightly during leaf drop and the bulk of my leaves easily blow out of my yard and into my neighbor's. This year has been exceptionally good with the cold weather stopping the grass from growing. Might be my easiest year ever for me and the most difficult for my neighbors.

02-03 was an interesting winter. Blocking during first half then entirely pac driven for second half. Not making any direct comparisons or anything. Just pointing out that we can still do fairly well during a nino with factors other than the ao/nao cooperating. After such a long predominant state of a +ao/nao, at some point it's going to reverse. No model does well beyond 2 weeks. We can infer strong states one way or the other continuing because they almost always do. I won't take any ao/nao forecast seriously until end of Nov. If I had to pick out one feature so far this fall that has my attention it would be the cold Canada/NA snowcover. The longer that continues the better off we are in the mid latitudes

The previous discussion about north American snowcover is becoming relevant it seems. We're in for some pretty cold November weather coming up in the not so distant future. Shovelable snow in November is very scarce in the burbs with temp climo being so hard to overcome. Sure is starting to look like cold enough air will be nearby in just about a week or so. I won't lie... active southern jet + great conditions in our source region for cold air has me intrigued. Sure would be sweet to have a storm thread before Thanksgiving so I can see the northern and western crew posting deep snow pics while my yard finishes a cold rain storm with 20 mins of wet fatties melting on contact.

Nah, not the enemy. We'll always like you around here. I just hope your yard gets pummeled with heavy rain and/or fireballs and stuff.

I'm too honest and don't like lying through my teeth. Sorry dude...

Remember that this time of year models will almost always be too cold in the med/lr. Even a perfect track/evolution is highly likely to still be rain. Not saying it's impossible to snow at any time in Nov but man it takes a lot to go right. Can't be a single flaw to pull it off.

Mod Nino's are the only time you can go big and have better than inside straight odds in the MA/SE. I want it all this year. Multiple miller a's and enough blocking to screw the NE. Been 9 years... WDI is positive

Yep, but you can't have any real snow until you see 100s if not 1000s of model runs with digital snow. And digital snow season is almost here. Get your digital shovel ready too cuz wx models + Nino's = feet upon feet of digital snow. Can't wait for the Euro to hand out its first over amplified crush job in the med to long range. Oh yea! The euro runs 4 times a day now! Buried dude... buried

Don't know about you guys but I'm looking forward to the over amplified, excessively cold, and fake d15 snowstorms to start showing up on the GFS. Should start happening regularly within 2-3 weeks.

Cansips does half decent at 1 month leads and I liked what I saw in December. Not saying it was stellar at all but there were some key crap pattern features that were nowhere to be seen (AK vortex, -PNA, raging +AO/NAO etc). If we can't have a great pattern in Dec the next best thing is one that doesn't have the things that ruin our hopes and dreams for months. My optimism has been increasing every week that goes by. I just want to have a decent couple of events. If we don't have one by the end of Jan it will be 3 years since my yard has anything that I would call "good".

lol- I was surprised nobody posted the CANSIPS until I realized I was in the wrong thread. Looks good to me. Implies a general nino pattern and back loaded. All 3 months are acceptable imo.

Started? No man, it's over. It was good for a day or two but time to move on.

Agree but you basically just described every storm thread we've ever had.

Heh, we're in mid season form already. I'll be in CT for thanksgiving. Control is a bit of a kick in the pill box. But 4 weeks is plenty of time for a north trend...all the way to Nova Scotia

It wouldn't be winter in these parts unless Ji is on tilt.

You didn't post the most important (snow) maps.

Off to a disastrous start as usual I'm still mad I got less cold rain than what the euro and gfs showed 24 hours b4 onset. No real wind either. Some things never change

Well we already blew one noreaster Yep, and the really crappy part of it is it's the last one we'll have. 19-20 should be good. Might start a thread.

I was on the razor's edge that day. Norbeck was the cutoff and I live literally 4 miles west of there. They always say walking the line of the dryslot is a good place to be but 4 miles is too damn close for comfort. Every lull I thought it was over but it just kept coming. I think I'm already paying that day back. Haven't been on the winning edge of the very few storms we've since then and will prob continue (as it should). That stretch from Dec 13 - Jan 16 was really kind to Rockville in general. Reversion is a beeyotch tho

Not a fan of the cfs weekly or monthly right now. Predominate +NAO through all met winter. I'll just ignore it for now but not something I want to see.