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Bob Chill

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Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    wnwxluvr is in a PRIME spot for this event. You and me? heh... aww hellz nooes mang
  2. Bob Chill
    Yea, I'm totally good with that look and it can work in early Dec for sure. Can't have a retreating high and rotting antedecent airmass in early Dec. At least not in my yard. Block in a cold feed and track south and we'll all do just fine.
  3. Bob Chill
    I was never in so there's that. Don't get me wrong tho, I'm very interested in my slushy muddy mess but I'll wait thurs afternoon before making any calls
  4. Bob Chill
    I'm not all that excited for thurs. Early season storms almost never produce in my yard. I'm prepared for watching whatever minor slush that accumulates run down the storm drain while northern tier folks post winter wonderland scenes every 5 minutes.
  5. Bob Chill
    GEFS will usually be the first to show a change in the LR. Meaning, if all ensembles are showing a +AO (or NAO/EPO etc) in the d10-15 range the GEFS will normally be first to show it breaking down. It's happening right now right? GEFS started showing the shift towards a *potential* -NAO 3 days ago and finally today the EPS made a noticeable move towards it. That happens more often than GEFS bashers want to admit (cough cough DT cough cough)
  6. Bob Chill
    Yes, CPC analogs should be used within a 3 day centered mean. Vet day storm showed up @ d11 last week.
  7. Bob Chill
    I worked on one of my cars for a few hours before nfl kicked off. Didn't have a jacket on but loved the combo of bright sun and crisp temps. I did have to wear a hat and gloves walking the dog last night. I'm not hardened yet so the 29 degrees felt like 10. Lol
  8. Bob Chill
    Just be prepared for a flip to blah during early December. Doesn't look like it now but just be ready for it. Doesn't mean winter cancel or anything like that. It's totally normal for nino December's to have a zonal warmish conus pattern. As long as it doesn't coincide with a +AO it won't be a bad sign.
  9. Bob Chill
    Yes, it's very encouraging indeed. I'm loving the pressure patterns in the high latitudes as well. If this 5 day mean resembles the base state this winter then it's not an if it snows but how much... If we're still seeing these kinds of looks in 2-3 weeks then I'm going full weenie.
  10. Bob Chill
    #cohensucks #SAIfail
  11. Bob Chill
    Too bad the snow map algo is whacked and magically turns cold rain into snow. I'll enjoy the sleet at onset tho
  12. Bob Chill
    Yea, the NA pattern has been great since early October to build and maintain snowcover in Canada. No sign of the persistent ridging in the west letting up either so no Pac air invasion into Canada over the next several weeks. There's really nothing going on to complain or worry about so far this fall. We haven't had an acceptable December since 2013. I'm pretty sick of wasting the first 6 weeks of met winter
  13. Bob Chill
    That elongated BN height pattern is showing up more and more. Would imply active coast to coast storm track and would work well. Not a particularly cold or amplified pattern like 14-15 but can easily envision elongated hp to the north of us pressing against low pressure underneath. Storm track would be more east versus north. Bodes well for the MA/SE
  14. Bob Chill
    It's a perfect ULL pass. That's what caused the unexpected vet day storm in the 80's. I'm very skeptical of this working out anywhere near the cities but if something is going to happen then this panel is how to do it.
  15. Bob Chill
    I like everything too. I really like the gefs NH pattern late in the runs last couple days. Starting to look like a pretty classic active STJ with blocking building. Not that I'm expecting snow to close the month or anything but it's very close to becoming a winter pattern that can snow here. If a legit -ao comes into focus to close out Nov then I think it would practically seal the deal that this winter won't suck.
  16. Bob Chill
    If it's -1.25 or lower it's near perfect. I have the data spread saved somewhere. I'll see if I can find it later and post it.
  17. Bob Chill
    Has to break right eventually. It's been 8 years since our last decent -ao pattern in Dec. 3-4 weeks to get things right... or fall apart. One or the other.
  18. Bob Chill
    I agree. Please let the gefs be right with high latitudes... starting Dec with a strong -ao rarely fails our region... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
  19. Bob Chill
    This time of year we need it to be uber cold in the mid range because it's almost guaranteed to verify warmer. -15-20 airmass required to overcome climo.
  20. Bob Chill
    According to the F3 we are now rooting for a north trend
  21. Bob Chill
    We can work with this spread. Hopefully the neg cluster prevails.
  22. Bob Chill
    I'm pretty optimistic that this winter will produce. Our region lives and dies by enso most years to get warning level events. If the long wave pattern sets up like a nino then we'll need less luck than usual. That's really all we can ask for. A lot can happen in 3 weeks so I'm not getting hung up on anything models are showing now.
  23. Bob Chill
    Yea man, getting close to go time if the AO is going to be a dominant feature during met winter. To get a -1.25 or lower AO on the means for Dec we can't waste a bunch of time with a +AO during the first half of the month. I'm really hoping the -AO signal is strong as we close out this month. Plenty of lead time to not worry one way or the other but as the weeks go by that's certainly something to watch closely.
  24. Bob Chill
    Ens are a bit ambiguous with how things evolve late in the month and early Dec. Aleutian ridge and -pna is anti-nino so if it develops I'd guess that it will be temporary. Early Dec is still pretty hostile snow climo. Especially in the corridor. My wag is the pac will cooperate in Dec at some point. Second half of the month would be optimal. We'll know more in 2 weeks.
  25. Bob Chill
    We can fail with any storm but all long range guidance is now pointing towards higher odds of failing less often so there's that. Miller As are great because you can extrapolate radar instead of praying for redevelopment in time. We'll be able to watch giant slugs of cold rain propagate from the deep south right into our yards!
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