Bob Chill

That's not exactly true. We've wasted ungodly amounts of "great setups" and walked into many decent events with a crap pattern. The MA's snows are built around chaos more than climo/patterns. 13-14 was a bad snow pattern for our region and it couldn't stop snowing. 93-94 shows what happens with the same pattern in the other direction. Ultimately, the only gold standard for good snow seasons is an active southern jet. Getting attacked from the SW is where it's at. Not clippers, or jumpers, or redevelopers. We need a slug of moisture from the TN valley to come right at us. Warm enso favors those type of precip events. I feel good about this year in that regard but making calls or getting excited in Oct isn't something I do anymore.

We're on the same exact page probably. Cold ninos are weak or mod and come with a neg ao/nao. Back half of 02-03 was kinda weird because when blocking relaxed the +pna stepped in. It was a great door to door nino winter with no extended warm spells. PD2 was refreshed several times into March and snowcover days late in the season were remarkable. I can easily see how we can go below normal temp wise but it will require the string of +ao/nao Decembers to end this year. Need to start off on the right foot. I'll reserve enthusiasm until I can see it inside of 2 weeks.

I don't think temp analogs pre 2000 are as useful anymore unfortunately. I could see a BN DJF if persistent blocking sets up early. Won't know how that breaks for at least 6 weeks. If the ao/nao are positive during Dec then the chances of BN DJF goes down significantly. I'm just sharing my guesses. I'll get excited for cold and snow when things look good at reasonable leads. Basically when I'm eating turkey and staring at ens runs with a big red ball at h5 over Greenland and/or the pole. A big blue ball in those areas and I'll keep my shorts and flip-flops handy

Nino's generally aren't cold winters. Weak is the best chance. Just going off recent Nino's since 2000 and warmer background conditions. Even with 09-10's exceptionally high snowfall the winter itself wasn't very cold. The Feb back to back storms melted fast. Same with the Dec storm. We did have some solid cold in Jan/early Feb tho but it was also a record blocking year. I don't put much stock in seasonal models when it comes to temps but the cfs and CanSips are AN DJF. Jamstec is also AN iirc. That's not why I think this winter will be at or above normal though. Just going off of climo and the fact that the northern hemisphere has been running warm for years in general.

Damn NPZ. Blackwater is rocking. Every time I've been there I could easily stand on the ledge where right now it would be a Niagara barrel ride.

I like everything I see so far. Broad brush looks like not a particularly cold winter. Prob AN DJF but to get warning level events we either need lots of luck or a southern stream. Unless there's some sort of gross reversal with enso, seems like odds favor at least one or more warning level event. Prob back half of winter for the close burbs. Total wag but AN Dec temps could spoil a good track storm. If I lived in the northern tier I would be cautiously excited already. We can hold off on Dec analysis for another 6 weeks tho. No sense worrying about things that far out in time.

Tricky contest this year. Easy to go late because well...it's been warm as F and warm enso is generally a mild fall pattern. Add is the ridiculous amount of saturated ground and everything points to a late start to cold season. However, a very cold Canada pattern looks to potentially lock in this month so intrusions could be pretty cold. Northern plains weenies may have a good October. Lol

DCA: 11/30 BWI: 11/11 IAD: 11/2 RIC: 11/14 TB: 3.60"

If there is any semblance of an active southern stream this year then one of our biggest hurdles takes care of itself.

CFS has shown AN precip for DJF for like 20+ runs in a row. This is yesterday's run but they all have been similar lately. Pretty much a classic nino anomaly placement. Just ignore the temp panels and pretend it's all snow. lol

I mowed the lawn yesterday and rotated tires on a car. By the time I was done I looked like I fell off a dock. Totally normal for sept wx but I'm over it. Sweatshirt wx can't come soon enough

Good stuff. Would go a long ways to not start met winter off with a blue ball in the strat and raging +ao/nao. It's happened so often recently that it makes you start to think it's normal. I personally hate wasting December and then chasing the fabled SSW event. We're at the point now where another really strong strat PV and strong +ao/nao would be abnormal. Just a couple basic assumptions like having some semblance of an active STJ and unhostile high latitudes would point towards a better than normal shot at climo+ snowfall. Hopefully by late November we're looking at long range guidance showing an Aleutian low and -ao on the panels. Northern stream dominated progressive patterns are getting pretty old.

I'm fairly optimistic about the upcoming winter. Should be enough of an enso influence to deliver an active STJ at times. Just a wag but I'm leaning AN temps for DJF but that doesn't mean no snow. I'd be surprised if we don't get at least 1 widespread warning level event. Still 1-2 months away from seasonal guidance giving us some believable insight on general high latitude patterns. My gut is another dominant +ao/nao winter is unlikely. I'm expecting the strat to not look hostile in Nov/Dec as well. We'll know soon enough. Looking forward to the first freeze.

Hype is dumb away from the bay and atl coast. There is a near zero chance Flo is more disruptive than Isabel for most if not all of us. Flood prone areas inland could be in for some trouble I guess but mass power outage and destruction mania is absolutely silly imho

Would property damage suck? Yea, it's a pain in the ass. I went through it with a tree branch through the roof in July 09. However, I have good insurance, generator, and enough common sense to prepare and avoid injury so it's worth the entertainment factor. Let's get on the dirty side so we can have sustained 80+mph winds AND some F1s cruising the neighborhoods. ETA: forgot to add devasting flooding. 20 foot surge and 2 feet of rain should complete the experience.

I'm with you @WxWatcher007. Weather doesn't give 2 steaming turds what we root for and we don't control jack. The entire foundation of this board and any other wx board is built on common interest and enthusiasm for exciting weather. If someone can't deal with that perspective then it's best to not join or even lurk. With that said I'm getting a little concerned that Flo won't be a cat 5 at landfall at point lookout.

No doubt in my mind. After a 16-0 season the playoffs will be easy too.

Skins just threw down their best half of football maybe ever. It can only go downhill from here.

Cousins/Diggs combo is going to make you very happy this year. Its just getting started... There is no doubt in my mind that Cousins will have more success as a viking than a redskin.

Our best combo is west based mod nino. I was just saying that one could happen and we get the shaft anyways. With neutrals we need blocking of some sort. Either neg ao, nao, or epo. Another good teleconnection is a +pdo. That usually translates to a +pna. That works here too. I wouldn't worry much at all until we get into Nov. That's the earliest we can judge teleconnections and even that's a stretch.

Nino's favor an active southern stream so it surely helps. But neutral or even nina's can have an active southern stream at times. 95-96 was a mod nina and it crushed the region. Winters like 13-14 are better than Nino's for activity but that was lucky becuase the closest match to the ul pattern is 93-94. That one was far more ice and crap than 13-14. Lucky side and unlucky side cant be illustrated any better. Last winter was very unlucky. Sure, we can blame it on enso but lots of areas very close around us did quite well. The south did well too. That could have easily been here too but it didn't break right. I'm not saying that I don't prefer Nino's because if I had a choice it's an easy one. Then again, we could easily have a mod west based nino and strike out too. We're probably due for that. Lol

Nah, I'm itching to not need a shower after I pick up the mail or take the trash out. Baby steps. Fall is my favorite season to enjoy weather. Winter is my favorite to track weather. I don't want to rush through the enjoyable season.

Won't know until mid-late Sept at the ealiest. Right now everything looks good enough. We need luck more than we need a nino. Sure, nino helps but good snow winters are loaded with good luck and bad winters are luckless. No predicting that piece of the pie until you're shoveling.

Odds increasing of our first late summer continental airmass dropping innext week. Still a bit early so it might not make it here. Low dews and low 80's sounds good on paper though.

Considering it's August and even the greatest super computers in world can't get it right more than a couple weeks out let alone a couple months....I'm pretty optimistic. Nino's are like the Field of Dreams. Build it and they will come. But usually not until the second half. If we score between Dec 1st and Jan 15th then my guess is climo doesn't stand a chance. Even with 125% of climo snow, I can accurately predict that there will be a whole bunch of posters unhappy because the bay didn't freeze shore to shore and even Dec sun can melt the roads when it's below freezing. And it's going to be warm of Christmas.