Bob Chill

It's pretty simple leading into Dec. Just follow the AO. Strong + or - AOs in December tend to set the tone for all of met winter. Whichever strong state prevails in Dec has a high probability of continuing. Needs to be at least +/- 1.25SD to have a strong correlation. Neg AOs have the highest correlation to AN snow in our region. Most important out of all teleconnections. If the AO isn't anomalous then it's not a good indicator. We'll know how Dec is going to start within a month. Before that I don't really pay much attention because long lead forecasting has a low success rate

Still a month away from a decent window into how winter starts but in my eyes the upcoming season has as good a chance as any for a good winter. If it still looks good in a month I'm going full weenie. Until then my weenie will remain under wraps

Pacific SSTA loop for October so far. Npac is trying to slowly transition to a +PDO. Cool the western region off the coast of Japan eastward to the Aleutians through December and it would actually become near perfect. Eastern NPac is great like it is. Nino region chugging along nicely.

Two games in a row. D won it against Carolina becuase skins suck at scoring in the second half. If the last field goal was a TD it would have locked it up. Came down to a final drive key stop by the D. O needs to close games out too or it won't end well. Love the D though. Most teams that win in the playoffs don't have Swiss cheese D

If the skins figure out how to score in the second half we'll be a team that all teams fear to play. If they don't they won't win key close games down the stretch.

Only downside to Thurmont/Fdk is the valley. Coastals get wrung out with Parrs and down sloping so it can be a bit of a snow hole at times. Personally, I like the Damascus, Mt Airy, Westminster line. I worked in Mt Airy for 5 years and it was amazing how much more snow they got than my house and it was only 35 miles door to door.

Please wait until spring at least before you fall off the roof. Might be a busy tracking winter and the sub needs you. After the final March blizzard you can take chances again.

I personally don't buy into 50 degree water in the gulf of AK providing meaningful forcing in the mid/upper levels. I just think the existence of "the blob" is a response to predominant weather patterns in the area. If a big GoA vortex wants to set up it's going to do it regardless of AN temps in the region. The equatorial region is different. Warm and cold water there definitely makes a big difference in hemispheric patterns. Same with the north atlantic near Greenland. Water has been BN there for multiple years in a row but the NAO has been raging positive to it makes sense. Do I think there can be a feedback of sorts in both regions? Yes, I think it's possible for sure. I just don think the water temps in the north atlantic or pacific drive the surface, mid and upper levels over long periods of time. I think it works the other way around. There are differing opinions on this so I'm just stating the way I look at it. If someone can show me viable research that connects SSTAs in the north atlantic and Pacific driving the bus with surface and upper level patterns I'll change my mind.

It's going to be to be rippin in the AM. Our area generally mixes well with NW winds in the fall when it's sunny. 850 wind max crosses right over us and central/se VA tomorrow morning. Don't be walking on the roof with a piece of plywood or you'll hangglide to SBY. Lol

All seasonal models are advertising a coupled +pna/-epo now during the majority of met winter. The euro weeklies get it going in November. We don't need sick blocking for that to work out. Just avoid a raging +ao/nao and good things will happen. I need to pull some enso analogs and compare similar looks. Pretty sure 02-03 had similar ridging along the west coast and AK. It's probably the ideal pattern to be at or BN temps in the eastern US. If we enter Dec with a solid +pna/-epo I'll go into full weenie mode. Only 6 weeks to go... heh

Went to the oyster and beer festival down by Nats Stadium today. Was one of the better ones I've been to. All you can eat with over 20 different oysters. Tons of beers and a bunch of different small batch distilleries. I wasn't drinking so my ticket was only $38. Full tickets still weren't bad at $60. Well worth the money overall and had a blast. Highly recommend going next year. I've been to bad festivals before where lines are insane and food is so so. It was crowded but lines werent that bad. Ate at least 5 dozen. Lol.

Area of above normal temps in the gulf of AK and off the west coast of CA. It's a chicken or egg discussion as to what it means. 13-14 had it and there was persistent ridging there and a -epo. The question is, does the above normal water cause the ridge or vice versa. It's not like it's warm water. Even though the maps show orange and red the water temps are still low 50s or lower. Not exactly warm water like along the equator. I think it's a byproduct of the peristant ridging and doesn't cause anything more than a minor feedback. If a trough wants to set up over that area of above normal water it isn't going to stop much. It is a sign though and a good one. We want a -epo and +pna all winter. I noticed the really strong ridging over AK in sept and was wondering if that will be a theme this winter. Would be great if it does.

With decent enso forcing it's very possible that Nov starts showing winter's hand. I'm slowly coming around to the idea that this winter may be pretty good.

CFS is FINALLY looking more like a Nino. Dropped the aleutian ridge idea. I was ignoring the CFS completely when it picked up on that idea. Jan isn't perfect but totally acceptable. Feb looks pretty damn good now though.

Let's do 12/24 this year. Although that weekend will be burned in my memory forever. Drove from Rockville to Columbia during the height of the storm carrying precious cargo (groom and $1k worth of liquor). Was supposed to be 250 people at the wedding and only about 50 could make it. It was pretty awesome regardless. I know your big day was similar.

there's a 50/50 chance this winter beats 09-10. It either does or doesn't. 50/50 by my calculations.

that was my first thought too. The December blizzard is going to be awesome.

Is Dec 09 really the last time DCA had a warning level event in Dec? I think it might be my yard as well. I had a decent event in Dec 13 but I dont think it was 5"+. I'll have to check my records but a good Dec snowstorm has been really rare the last 10 years. Dec 2010 was almost a great storm but we all know how that went down. Lol

Yep, this is my favorite site but only goes back to 96 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

Here's what I'm talking about from another year... a very good one. Lol. We want the western side of the npac to move towards this. 02-03 success was driven by a persistant +pna more than the ao/nao. Some similarity in the eastern npac right now. Heh.

Here's a visualization. Cool down the pdo region around Japan to central Aleutians and leave everything else as is in the npac and it sure looks good to me. Optimal comes to mind. Including the BN region off of baja/socal... this plot is moving towards perfect npac conditions. Only loose end is cooling down the area between Japan and the Aleutians. 2 months is plenty of time.

I'm optimistic this year and definitely like what I see but as we all know... good or bad lr looks in Oct are often misleading. Very misleading... haha Npac sstas are hinting towards potential favorable persistence high low placements. Chicken or egg argumentas to what drives what between the 2 but persistence can be real and a good indicator of predominant patterns. If by mid November the npac height and ssta patterns still look good I'll go ahead and switch to full weenie mode.

Just watching the ens guidance over the last week has me thinking the first freeze is coming pre-Halloween for all but DCA. Makes sense. Over extended summer flips on a dime and the cold Canada pattern adjusts its aim toward the EC. I considered going earlier on first freeze contest but I went with persistence. Not making any calls but something to watch.

I'm becoming more interested in the anomalous AK ridge happening lately. That's actually a decent feature for cold outbreaks in the US. Maybe we get an enso climo favored Aleutian low with a -epo ridge over the top. Even better would be a +pna ridge connecting to the -epo ridge. Then throw in low heights in socal undercutting the +pna and storm track across the southern tier. Lastly, having some northern energy riding down the massive -epo/+pna ridge that phases with the southern stream. Yea, that would work. Only half of my post is in jest. This is a legit consideration we'll know more about in a few months. Arctic amplification has a recurring theme over the last decade. Location seems to move around year to year but it's been happening a lot. Nasty AK ridge is a net + in these parts.

With the recent performance of the SAI, it seems we actually want to root for a Siberian furnace and no snow at all. So far so good.