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Bob Chill

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Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    This year is crazy. Almost every southern shortwave has overperformed midrange guidance.
  2. Bob Chill
    Read some obs in the midwest thread. Looks like a positive reverse bust in progress in MO and IL. Extrapolate that at your leisure
  3. Bob Chill
    Good question... it doesnt matter either way. Obs at this point are only temp, dews, and how cloudy your clouds are.
  4. Bob Chill
    Soundings at 18z look pretty good. Before onset the column is saturated down to 925mb. Surface winds are out of the south turning se then e. Def going to be hallucinations but one of the nice things about waa precip like this is moisture in the mids is steady streaming in well before onset. Clippers are the worst with "wasting snow"
  5. Bob Chill
    Alright folks. Locked and loaded with few if any worries. Hope the southern folks get more snow than ice. Ground is frozen and ready to get dumped on. Streets in the western zones will cave with the first flakes. *measure honestly. No slant sticks or "eyeballing a foot".
  6. Bob Chill
    And to think... there was a heated drought debate last winter.
  7. Bob Chill
    Tricky contest this year. Easy to go late because well...it's been warm as F and warm enso is generally a mild fall pattern. Add is the ridiculous amount of saturated ground and everything points to a late start to cold season. However, a very cold Canada pattern looks to potentially lock in this month so intrusions could be pretty cold. Northern plains weenies may have a good October. Lol
  8. Bob Chill
    DCA: 11/30 BWI: 11/11 IAD: 11/2 RIC: 11/14 TB: 3.60"
  9. Bob Chill
    I feel sorry for the dought
  10. Bob Chill
    Absolutely. What makes this July stand out it was it was really wet and still came in about +1-2 around the airports. If it was dry then it could have been much worse. Easy top 5 imho. The 6-7 days of the month averaged well below normal. Mostly because of the summer coastal. EJ is disappointed because of wasted potential.
  11. Bob Chill
    Nice stats Rodney! The precip in July is probably the only reason we didn't end up in the top 10 for heat. August is looking unimpressive so far in the heat dept. Would be nice to have a BN month.
  12. Bob Chill
    One thing is for sure, that 7 day period in Feb 10 may not be topped for 100 years or ever. If the poll was "greatest 7 days of winter" there only needs to be 1 choice.
  13. Bob Chill
    One of my main reasons for picking 1/16 is because I have a much deeper knowledge of east coast snowstorms. The hunt was as rewarding as the prey. PD1 was the "first hit" in the lifetime addiction so it will forever be a defining event in my life. But tracking a beautiful storm for 8 days and knocking down 30" in my yard may never be topped before I'm dead. Or in 2 weeks...
  14. Bob Chill
    Me too. We've only had 2 bad out of the last 6. 10-11 wasn't above normal snow wise but it wasn't in the bad winter class either. We've had 4 giant and 2 really big storms in the last 6 years. Plus we're on a 3 year heater and froze the bay and rivers the previous 2 years. We probably have better than normal odds at adding another big or giant storm this year. Best of all...since this nino is so strong so late in the year we could have a sweet weak Nina next year to keep the run going...lol
  15. Bob Chill
    That h5 loop is a 10 second clinic of exactly what to look for if you like big snowstorms. I love the trajectory overhead and off the coast. So sweet for our latitude
  16. Bob Chill
    I changed my vote. 2016 was an incredible tracking and real time experience. The insane model runs and insane totals around the areas west of the cities led to an unimaginable period for winter wx enthusiasts. Biggest storm ever in my yard seals the deal.
  17. Bob Chill
    Awesome loop Ian. This thread is great. Can you animate an h5 re-analysis?
  18. Bob Chill
    I posted this in another thread. I uploaded the loop to YouTube. https://youtu.be/m5SRBhKirrQ
  19. Bob Chill
    I uploaded this loop to Youtube. It's so cool to see how the leading shortwave that dropped an inch and destroyed a commute set the stage for a cold storm. Just a beautiful loop. One for the books. https://youtu.be/m5SRBhKirrQ
  20. Bob Chill
    Heh, yep it was Stern. Young memories mix things up. Grease dropped a few bombs on air that were far worse.
  21. Bob Chill
    Anyone remember when Greaseman called Air Florida on air shortly after the accident? Wow. I was 13 at the time so unfortunately I thought it was funny...now...notsomuch.
  22. Bob Chill
    Yes, more likely but I'm sure there's been some ice during warm enso. Probably not many with mod+ or strong. Someone prob has good stats on that and can chime in. I'm surprised we didn't get more ice the last 2 years. Especially 13-14. It was a prime ice pattern but we ended up snowing instead. Weird (and very lucky) year.
  23. Bob Chill
    Big ice is probably very unlikely this winter either way. I'm not too picky though. High impact weather is the core of my interest in this hobby. Certainly not in it for "pretty weather" (unless we're talking July 4th 2014 kind of stuff). I enjoy it of course but not something that inspires me to discuss it. lol.
  24. Bob Chill
    Nobody can convince me that a foot of ice wouldn't be awesome to experience.
  25. Bob Chill
    ^ RR in 3...2...1...
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