Bob Chill

One of my main reasons for picking 1/16 is because I have a much deeper knowledge of east coast snowstorms. The hunt was as rewarding as the prey. PD1 was the "first hit" in the lifetime addiction so it will forever be a defining event in my life. But tracking a beautiful storm for 8 days and knocking down 30" in my yard may never be topped before I'm dead. Or in 2 weeks...

Me too. We've only had 2 bad out of the last 6. 10-11 wasn't above normal snow wise but it wasn't in the bad winter class either. We've had 4 giant and 2 really big storms in the last 6 years. Plus we're on a 3 year heater and froze the bay and rivers the previous 2 years. We probably have better than normal odds at adding another big or giant storm this year. Best of all...since this nino is so strong so late in the year we could have a sweet weak Nina next year to keep the run going...lol

That h5 loop is a 10 second clinic of exactly what to look for if you like big snowstorms. I love the trajectory overhead and off the coast. So sweet for our latitude

I changed my vote. 2016 was an incredible tracking and real time experience. The insane model runs and insane totals around the areas west of the cities led to an unimaginable period for winter wx enthusiasts. Biggest storm ever in my yard seals the deal.

Awesome loop Ian. This thread is great. Can you animate an h5 re-analysis?

I posted this in another thread. I uploaded the loop to YouTube. https://youtu.be/m5SRBhKirrQ

I uploaded this loop to Youtube. It's so cool to see how the leading shortwave that dropped an inch and destroyed a commute set the stage for a cold storm. Just a beautiful loop. One for the books. https://youtu.be/m5SRBhKirrQ

Heh, yep it was Stern. Young memories mix things up. Grease dropped a few bombs on air that were far worse.

Anyone remember when Greaseman called Air Florida on air shortly after the accident? Wow. I was 13 at the time so unfortunately I thought it was funny...now...notsomuch.

Yes, more likely but I'm sure there's been some ice during warm enso. Probably not many with mod+ or strong. Someone prob has good stats on that and can chime in. I'm surprised we didn't get more ice the last 2 years. Especially 13-14. It was a prime ice pattern but we ended up snowing instead. Weird (and very lucky) year.

Big ice is probably very unlikely this winter either way. I'm not too picky though. High impact weather is the core of my interest in this hobby. Certainly not in it for "pretty weather" (unless we're talking July 4th 2014 kind of stuff). I enjoy it of course but not something that inspires me to discuss it. lol.

Nobody can convince me that a foot of ice wouldn't be awesome to experience.

^ RR in 3...2...1...

Jan 30 - Feb 10 would get 99% of the votes.

If the month ended today, BWI would be -5.4 for the period. JFM last year was -4.5. Looks like a lock that last year gets beat by a pretty hefty margin. I just realized that BWI went -10.5 in Feb. Double digit neg monthly departures are very rare nowadays.

PD1 was the most influential so it takes my vote. 10 years old and blew my mind. Always loved snow but that one was the first hit to a lifetime addiction. Wasn't living here during Jan 96 so as great as it sounds I missed the experience. Jan 2000 will never happen again. Models are far more skilled. That kind of short range reverse bust is off the table. Maybe a small and localized bust is possible but nothing like that. 09-10 was mind blowing but after my years in the Rockies and older age, it can't top the wow factor of pd1

A good friend of mine had a wedding that night in columbia and I was in the wedding. I had to drive him and a crap pile of stuff in my suburban. I picked him up in Rockville at 2pm and it was dumping. Incredible drive on the beltway and 95 was a complete free for all. Cars stuck everywhere. A foot of powder on 95 by 3pm and puking snow. I loved it. My truck plowed right through it but it still took 2 hours. Only about 40 people could make the wedding out of the 150 invited. Being snowed in at a hotel with unlimited food and drink made for a very fun evening. Great time. Eta: just read back through the thread. Already posted the same exact story last year. At least my memory isn't slipping....yet!

Rodney, is DCA mostly widening the gap because lows? The location is at a serious disadvantage for radiational cooling. We had an unusual amount of good radiational cooling nights in Jul-Aug. Sept usually has them every year. The high temp differential in August and Sept was 3.68 and 4.5 respectively but the low temp differential was 7.98 and 8.27. I have no idea if this spread is historically normal. DCA also went through several large expansions in the late 90's and early 2000's. More buildings and more planes certainly doesn't help with temps. No matter which way you shake it, the location is almost perfect to be one of the warmest locales in the area (river, UHI on all sides, elevation). It would be interesting to compare some recent notoriously humid months in the area. Logic would say the gap would narrow.

How does the conus anom map look since Feb 2013? It seems like there was a flip from a warm east since then. The upper mw has been really cool for a while now as well. I don't miss the being in a microwave. It lasted long enough to think it was the "new normal". Nice to see a longer term trend of "evening sh!t out"

There was a storm? Too long ago. don't remember

I think what made this storm so memorable and intense for me is that one of my best friends was getting married that day. I had to load him and a pile of stuff into my suburban and drive from rockville to columbia @ 2pm. It took 2 hours but was one of the most wild rides of my life. My truck plowed through the snow no problem but 495 and 95N were an obstacle course of stuck cars. Total free for all. One of the best beers I've ever had was at the hotel bar 2 seconds after I got there. Nerves were tweaking but I honestly enjoy driving in big snows. It's pretty fun.

It won't be many more years before i forget Dec 09. Someone will show me a picture and I'll be like "where in Vermont is that?"

I just look on the bright side. We only have 6 years to go in the 10 year cycle.