Bob Chill

CFS is predicting lions

Still locked at 3-6 for us. Wont take much to add a few inches. Increasingly unlikely to lose much. The storm as shown is just a slug of WAA then it shuts off as things get cranking to the east. It won't take much to spread the shield in the dmv area another 50 miles NW either. That's trickier and certainly not something i could guess with confidence

Out in mid range, it kept looking to me like a place kicker. Just booting the southern wave out of the way and de-energizing it as it does it. I didnt want to post that it made sense because of the reception it would have had lol. Without the lobe hanging around, the WAA piece would easily stream to DMV. Lift is getting robbed in the dead space gap. We dont deal with setups like this enough to have much precedence. A full blown TPV like 2014/15 is real energetic and lights stuff up. This isn't a tpv like that. It's just a cold cutoff ball with potential energy. I know you know this. Just finishing my thoughts

Been the problem since the start. Psu has a great point on h5 prog charts and history but I'm not sure we can call it an ULL. It's a closed cyclonic circ but it's dead as a door nail with energy. If the southern wave didn't exist, the closed low would do basically nothing. We've had a number of waves over the last 10 years that just couldn't hook up with the northern or polar energy. There was always a dead space of subsidence between the 2. Imo, that dead space is there but there is no action with the closed circulation to have enough contrast to show it. My rule of thumb with stream interaction is if it's not helping its hurting. No real middle ground. Seems to me like if they don't play nice together they simply steal from each other. From that perspective, this storm has made a lot of sense to me

Mitch is a trip. I remember one night when we hit Dennys after bingo and this big cloud of dust went by and I was like "wtf was that?" And mitch was like "oh man, sorry. I had taco bell earlier"

100%. Maine too. Thing is, we love snowstorms but being true to ourselves, Iwe don't love long cold dark winters. All my hobbies are outdoors. The work I prefer to do is outdoors. I like to sit on the screened porch every possible aft/eve. The NE is stoopid beautiful in winter but man there are some major tradeoffs. Ones we couldn't stomach. The final deciding factor for us was cost of living. It's shocking how much less it costs to live here top to bottom. Cashing out the rockville house and downsizing expenses/lifestyle allows us to live richly and debt free. We could easily survive on just social security. I did well enough working in MD but we were NEVER free financially. It's nearly impossible even with "big income" whatever that means lol.

I will 100% be posting here more often. I should've all year but old habits die hard lol. I should post in the SE sub too. The main MA sub isn't working for me like it used to. It's not enjoyable like it used to be. Too much underlying tension. You can literally feel it. I love living in swva. Smartest thing I've done in many years. People are so reasonable, helpful, and genuinely nice. Most people I interact with have broad skill sets too. If you took 3 random people out of rural areas around here and put them together, they could build a house from the ground up while building a hotrod in the driveway at the same time. Its awesome. I feel completely at home and in my element. I never really felt that ever in the 22 years in rockville lol

The NAM can often be the first to introduce mix lines where there were previously none. In this specific case it's probably over done. There's an unusual amount of wiggle room in the column but this far south there can never really be enough. However, the nam wreck the column because it drives an 850 low to nearly Pittsburgh lol. Mid levels are a warm air vacuum. Can it break this way? Yes, within the envelope imo. But the nam is a mesoscale model and the storm hasn't even organized yet. So the 84 hour panel is a complete digital evolution. NAM loves to go a little haywire beyond d2 in these situations. If the shortwave was over the MS river and getting organized, I'd be pretty concerned rn but we're not there yet and imho, it's pretty unlikely the NAM is "on to something" yet

Winds are ripping now. Front was just rain but pretty dramatic. Immabout sick of rain lol. Theres flooding all over down here. Especially west of blue ridge. Considering how many weak trees are hanging from last week's ice, the sound of chainsaws will be prolific next couple days

Got it. Frank Pee U. it is

My parents lived in Cambridge from 07-18. I spent a ton of time there. A run to Salisbury on a hot humid day could bring you to your knees. It's like Ole frank Purdue feeds his birds microwave burritos and PBR

NJ is no different. That middle rural section is wild. I have family outside of Willingboro and the pine Barrens. Sophisticated it is NOT lol

If Jan 2010 can bump us from zero to hero in the short range, this one can do better. It just needs to make the turn and fiddle around with the polar/northern stream energy. The WAA part is already prog'd more expansive and further north than 2010. Any modest turn exiting the coast prob hits the entire dmv area with a nice storm. Well, "nice storm" as long as you didn't marry the mid range fantasy maulers lol

I had to take my then 6 year olds (fookin 20 now lol) to a bday party in silver spring. It was snowing moderately and stuck everywhere immediately when we left. I knew then it was going to work. The party was awesome. A handful of parents were weenies so we just watched snow pile up and enjoy for 4 hours. Driving home was fresh tracks in a lot of places. Dry cold snow makes for easy driving. My yard clocked 7" iirc and being a reverse bust made the day unforgettable.

Boxing day hit at the perfect time for maximum hope and dream destruction. Recency bias of the 2009-10 had us all overconfident lol. I was nearly certain it would work even when the wheels got loose in the short range. Nope, boxing day performed exactly like many of its predecessors. It's a big club and we ain't in it lol

Here's the map of Jan 29-30 2010

It might look like boxing day at the surface but unless my memory really sucks..... h5 is not a match at all so as depicted it's a similar result with a different setup. Jan 30 2010 is still the best analog imho

Buddy, I'm 100% all in on 3-6". I'm only referring to expecting 13-16" lol. Front side WAA has performed well up and down the EC this year. Juice comes easy to waves that tap the gulf. This will be no exception. It's going to be a very efficient storm with minimal waste. .3-.5 qpf will lay down 3-6" with ease imo and right now, the risk is upside and not down.

Other than some op eye poppers, I never saw much evidence for a big/classic storm. The term big ones sniffed out early also includes ops showing big solutions over and over. We really only had a mid range pocket of solutions that did that. For every big run there was a scary one and analogs never stacked up with big solutions. Hard to ignore that and remain grounded in reality lol. This storm does seem primed to dump a foot on someone. Small area like the last one. Overall snow shield is much larger this go around. I'd like to think it makes a lot of people happy but I'm second guessing that lol.

Still a day or 2 away from the best range but here's the analogs from the 0z run. Not bad not great. Hasn't wavered much. Once inside of d3, all ops look mostly the same so analogs become more accurate.

I don't waste hard drive space remembering specific bad storms but I always thought a SE miss was a whiff north of EZF and flurries in Wes' yard at best. The infamous VA Beach shellacking with broken clouds in the DMV is another one. If the majority of the sub gets accum snow, it's not a miss or a whiff in my book.

There are certain upper level requirements for big ones so when that's in place, models just need a shortwave to work with. When models are locked into a good upper level pattern, any shortwave can set things in motion. Often times during long range tracking, models keep showing big storms but if you follow the shortwave back in time, it's not always the same one but the end results keeps looking the same lol. When models start locking in on the same wave, uncertainty decreases and the wave is often way out in the pac somewhere. Jan 2016 was insane like that

Look on the bright side. RIC and SWVA weenies are still lookin solid. I'll let you use my snow total in your yard to help out. It's what friends are for

Whew! Allgood. Was a close one

I think what we need is someone with a psychology degree to fix that ish