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Everything posted by Picard
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Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph Jamaica landfall
Picard replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters
That's gotta be getting close - or is actually a record measurement in the Atlantic. Unprecedented. -
Dryslots, sharp cutoffs, or too far north and west. It's always at least one of those three. May this time be different? Meanwhile, holy effing Melissa.
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Low of 21 in Walpack. Low 28 at home in Sparta. Chilly morning.
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0.25" overnight. Unexpected. Welcomed.
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That's why I wouldn't get my hopes up about this possible wet stretch just yet. Lately it seems we just have to watch development (or lack thereof) 24-36 hours out. Models haven't been great for a while.
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I wish I had been that detailed over the years. I started about that age, and always maintained my interest level, but got sloppy with the records as adult life took hold. I can't say I'm that great about it today either, but it is fun to track weather stats over time if you're organized and dedicated enough. I have a bunch of old weather gadgets dating to the 1980s and 1990s still at my parents house in storage. One of them is a Davis station, dating to around 1991 that lasted a few years, then succumbed to a lightening strike of all things. I remember that one, flash, bang, shook the whole house and toasted a couple of appliances.
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0.10 as well. Most of it was just remnant broken bands of showers as the southern edge rotated north. A nothing burger for the longer term drought. What did places like Buffalo and Toronto pick up? Looked like solid rains out there for close to 24 hours.
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I'm not expecting much here tonight or tomorrow. The ingredients just aren't there. Set expectations low and once in a while be pleasantly surprised.
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Sharp cutoffs continue to be a feature. This will be fun this winter. I'm up to 0.30" event total from 0.21" overnight. Wind is howling this morning. I didn't witness any power outages as of yet in my travels out this way.
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Looking solid for the coast now. Stay safe. We'll see how much of the remaining precip shield makes it west of 287 and north of 95 for some needed moisture. Otherwise it's just a breezy, damp, raw evening out this way.
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No. It'll just be lucky guesses at this point and someone will be right. Things are kinda verifying on the coast and LI, but just inland, the cutoff remains very sharp. Precip might be filling back in a bit offshore the last few frames. So far it seems even the areas east of 95 are also underperforming as far as the precipitation goes. Wind is more the story.
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Dry slot offshore on the past few radar loops. Let's see if it fills back in. Precip is minimal west of 95. Still just some light rain and mist with a breeze. Rainfall amounts <0.10" the past 24 hours.
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Breezy with patches of blue sky. The rain has no chance of making it west of 95. Am I wrong?
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I don't know if it means much, but I had a band of mist move through about 9:00 am, followed by partly sunny skies.
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There is a lot of crap on X about this storm on X - seems like a lot of wannabes trolling for more followers. NWS was bullish on their X post at 6 pm - they still have my area at 2-2.5" of rain. Not sure about that.
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Wow, I never would have thought single digits had ever been recorded in October in NJ, even in a colder climate of the past. Was that near the end of the month?
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I forgot how cold that morning was area wide.
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Tonight will be chilly. The heat will go on for the first time. Walpack probably makes it well down into the 20s.
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0.56" overnight into this morning, which is far more than expected based on most of these falling apart or missing the area. I did catch the squall line around 5:30 AM with wind and a heavy downpour. Neat to see northeast movement of the overall system, and southeast movement of the squall line on the same radar loops.
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It looks.................decent. Does enough of it hold?
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I'm still skeptical of much in NNJ - the NAM phases things out from west to east, when we know in fact the cutoffs can be quite sharp.
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That's happened a few times.
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Most of it misses the area.
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Bust likely. There's no way we're getting what the wetter models are showing. I'd say the NAM has the best chances of being correct and it wouldn't be out of the question to say that's even overdone for some.
