Yardstickgozinya

SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A milder return southwest flow on the backside of departing high pressure begins Monday. Model RH time sections support abundant sunshine, which should help temps recover to near seasonal averages by Monday afternoon. A warm front lifting through the E Grt Lks is likely to spread increasing cloudiness into the region Monday night into Tuesday, with a slight chance of a shower over the NW Mtns. A strengthening southerly flow will advect increasingly mild air into Central PA with GEFS 2m temp anomalies supportive of high temps several degrees above seasonal normals by Tuesday afternoon. A sprawling area of slow moving low pressure will bring showers to the region late Tuesday night and Wednesday, with general thunder in the warm sector a possibility over our southern tier as cold front crosses the area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 10 PM Update...Main game is still Wed-Wed night as a mature cyclone moves through. Holding onto schc/chc TS for the srn half or so of the CWA Wed aftn/eve. Post-frontal winds should be close to advy for many, esp the higher elevations on Thurs. We`ll also continue to keep the max temps colder than NBM guidance on Thurs as wrn locations may have temps drop slightly thru the day. Prev... Overall still looking at a deep storm system lifting northeast from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes on Wednesday. This system will bring mild temperatures, gusty winds, and widespread showers to the area on Wednesday. Since the system is lifting northward, this will likely limit the adverse weather. However, even with the system pulling northward, timing of the cold front, strong dynamics, and time of day, will support some chance of thunder. Have a slight chance of thunder late in the day on Wed. Colder temperatures return behind this departing system, into the later part of the week. A cold front next weekend could bring some light precipitation to the area late week, but not expecting any big systems at this point.

SPC AC 030550 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Model output remains varied concerning sub-synoptic developments into and through this period. However, better consensus is evident among the various model ensemble output concerning the large-scale pattern evolution across the eastern Pacific into North America. Within this regime, a significant upper trough, now inland of the Pacific coast, is forecast to progress east of the Great Plains through Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night, accompanied by continuing strong cyclogenesis. Models generally indicate that the center of the evolving broad and deep surface cyclone will migrate from western Kansas through northern Illinois during this period. In the wake of the cyclone, a substantive cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across the southern Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast and lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Wednesday. This may be preceded by a more modest Pacific cold front across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, and potentially cool/dry air across/east of the lower Mississippi Valley, associated with a surface ridge shifting off the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of de-amplifying large-scale mid/upper troughing. A southerly return flow off a modifying boundary-layer over the western Gulf Basin is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday across eastern Texas toward the lower Missouri Valley, before shifting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. In response to the evolution and progression of the cyclone, models suggest that better low-level moisture return from the Gulf will probably become cut off across the eastern Gulf Coast region by late Tuesday night. Across and northeast of a low-level baroclinic zone, initially extending across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity southeastward through southern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf moisture return will initially become elevated above a residual cool/stable surface-based layer. However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh output still suggest that this boundary will become more diffuse while developing eastward through the day. Regardless, most model output remains suggestive that elevated and/or closer to surface-based destabilization, and large-scale ascent associated with the cyclone, will become sufficient to support extensive convective development across the interior U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night, and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... The remnant, though becoming increasingly diffuse, baroclinic zone across the lower Mississippi Valley, might become the primary initial focus for intense thunderstorm development during this period. As the environment destabilizes more rapidly to the southwest of this boundary, and low-level warm advection along it contributes to large-scale ascent accompanying a short wave perturbation overspreading the lower Mississippi Valley, conditions may become conducive to the evolution of an organizing storm cluster. This may be preceded by a couple of discrete supercells. Given the strength of the deep-layer mean wind fields, which may include a belt of south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer on the order of 60-100 kt overspreading Louisiana and Mississippi during the day, there appears at least conditional potential for supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. With the strongest wind fields generally forecast in the inflow layer of the convective development, the extent of the damaging wind potential remains more unclear, particularly with any evolving cluster developing along/above a maturing cold pool Much will also depend on the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles are able to destabilize in advance of the large-scale forcing. Both the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings suggest this may be an issue, and potential mitigating factor with regard to the severe wind and tornado potential, particularly overnight east of the lower Mississippi Valley into the eastern Gulf Coast states. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 0713Z (2:13AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Not a lot of change since yesterday in coverage or severe probabilities in the south for tuesdays event . NOAA does mention the chance for some good rain and perhaps some thunder for our area in the forcast discussion.

I apologize @SnowPlowGuy88I only reported your post because it seems suspicious. Nothing personal just precautionary.

I apologize but this is quite random. Has @SnowPlowGuy88account been compromised?

Seeing that most of the top posters are on a break atm I see no need to comply with there silly rules at this point. Flatheadsickness Mode Activated.

What a year. Very sad and destructive year. But absolutely fascinating nonetheless.

I agree. The entertainment value of Julie C's shows are most enjoyable In private.

Well, if you watched enough, Wagon Train and Bonanza you'd be cultured enough to understand. Dude I'm just fucking with you. You got real thin skin for a guy that likes to say things that you know will piss people off. I've actually already helped you and stuck up for you ass hole . Anyways, a good place for you to start is with Noaa's forcast discussions. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off They aren't going to be as accurate as you expect them to be, but they will often tell you how confident they are in their forecast, and if you read it enough, you will also learn from it.

Good call . Expanded to include those areas.

You got a whole bull wagon full of words desparato, for a dude wrangler that's all hat and no cattle. I've dealt with sap sucking, yellow belly's like you before. A coward like you ain't worth a spitting dime’s worth of dogs meat. Why I reckon if it came to it, we can draw at high noon, unless you ain't got the guts partner.

Lightning should continue to be pretty easy to come by as long as the sun stays active. I didn't get directly affected by much convection tast year, but the little I did get and watched pass by didn't disappoint in the stroke department. Pretty much every month this winter delivered a powerful lightning event in PA and / or the MA. If it was up to me, I would personally make sure that every member of this wonderful thread is extremely satisfied in the stroke department multiple times this year. https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/24/9119/2024/ https://phys.org/news/2014-05-high-speed-solar-lightning-earth.html

July 25 2010 ?

SPC AC 271002 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D6/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley... A compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest on Sunday which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on D5/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains. Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level moisture advection continues. By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be complete with 70F dewpoints forecast near the Gulf Coast by both GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Confidence in the upper-level pattern is increasing as the ECMWF and EC Ensembles have been consistent with an amplified mid-level pattern across the central and southern Plains now for several consecutive runs. In addition, the GFS/GEFS has trended toward the more amplified ECMWF solution. As the confidence in the overall pattern increases, the confidence for a significant severe weather threat has also increased and 30% severe weather probabilities have been added from East Texas to central Mississippi. While specifics will remain uncertain until the event draws closer, the potential for multiple rounds of severe convection including supercells, clusters, and likely an eventual squall line will likely bring a threat for all severe weather hazards including strong tornadoes. ...D7/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast... The ECMWF/ECS, which has been several days ahead of other extended guidance on with this upcoming pattern, has trended toward greater moisture penetration into the Southeast US and east of the Appalachians. Low to mid 60s dewpoints in the presence of a very strong wind field will support a large area of severe weather threat from the Southeast to the Carolinas and perhaps into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Storm mode and specific hazards will be impacted by prior day convection and the overall evolution of the deepening surface low and associated cold front, but a great enough threat exists for 15% severe weather probabilities for D7/Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 02/27/2025

I don't feel like explaining myself later. As long as you cut onion plants back to 4 to 6" before planting and don't have a K deficiency in your soil a few nights in 20s or a deep snow won't kill onions. I will cover them for the teens. One of the key to big bulbs is getting your onions out early especially day neutral varieties. And controlling those leaf twisting bastard allium leafminers.

It's a beautiful morning. The birds and feel are advertising the inevitable . I'm hoping we can stilk sneak in a snow. I prepared my onion beds last night to plant them tonight.

2024 full year radar time lapse. https://youtu.be/oQOFqBaHX9A?si=rluQIcCNjCxE3-zR

I had the craziest dream last night that I was being chased around MD and VA by a bunch of clowns driving motorized hot dog stands . They had confetti cannons, but instead of shooting confetti, they were shooting 312 hour kuchera and surface maps at me.

I believe @mitchnick is a lawyer. Maybe you can hire him to help you file a suit against the NCEP and NWS for your unnecessary milk, bread, and egg expenditures.

Yes pink and beautiful. I noticed that too.

It feels as cold this morning as any time I have felt this winter. My two walks below zero were nowhere nearly as brutal. Definitely miserable stuff out here unless you're some nutty guy and a dog. Bundle up.

Sorry to hear that, I hope it's back on soon. I wasn't saying there's not wind coming. I was just saying the highest winds were not here yet. I'm getting some heavier gust now.

Skillets maybe lol

Nothing super crazy out here yet, but we have had some decent gust that really got the rocket stove humming. I. have burnt it trough many storms over the last 10 years, and I've never had a downdraft reverse it's flow @Jns2183 .

Never mind the date was in my face