Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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0Z CMC is a sleetstorm for the metro area. Late transfer so lots of mid level warming. (it does actually look a touch colder than it's 12z run though)
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0Z GFS ticked north a bit for 2/28, not much but any tick north is probably not what you want to see the way the winter has been going and the setup.
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The first event will be within day 5 range by 0Z runs tonight. This is the best look we've had although I also realize a lot can go wrong (stronger primary, later transfer, transfer becoming coastal hugger).
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At least this time it has support from the Euro and CMC. A lot can still trend better or worse because NYC seems to be squeezed between all rain to the south and heavy snow to the north.
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I’d like my chances for next week in SNE too. Here it’s more iffy.
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Rain/sleet/ and big snow flakes falling now.
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Why would people in Brooklyn be unhappy? That’s 3x more snow than they’ve had lol winter.
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RGEM too warm today as it didn't have frozen precip this far south. NAM/GFS too cold as they had moderate snow this far south.
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3-6/4-8 would be amazing in this winter.
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Same here in southern Yonkers, even had a few flakes mixed in.
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Sheeze Boston is crushed on the Euro, at least we get some snow. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023022212&fh=174&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Pretty good secondary track honestly but would probably need to transfer a bit quicker for the coast.
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Signs of secondary development for 2/28. Rarely works out south of NE but will keep an eye on it.
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Yea pretty rare to snow on the pacific coast at sea level. Almost as rare as no snow on the Atlantic coast at sea level anywhere south of New England all winter.
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Yea and even an unfavorable track maybe can provide front end snow (something that hasn’t even worked out at all this winter).
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This model just doesn't quit. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022118&fh=252&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Both US models have NYC starting as snow tomorrow, RGEM has no snow southeast of the catskills.
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12Z CMC is a glancing blow on Sunday, in this pathetic winter is trackable and probably our best opportunity since cold air won't be an issue. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&rh=2023022112&fh=114
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lol at this model, I hope this is ok to post for fun but this winter is so horrible we need humor. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022112&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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I think the long range GFS needs to be banned. I posted this here instead of the February thread for amusement and to not confuse people from an actual forecast. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023022018&fh=207&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Looks like I was right unfortunately. Seems RGEM has held steady while NAM has trended way north with accumulation for tomorrow.
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Not surprised Minneapolis doing well if basically every single storm has been a glc.
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As I expected 18z NAM def backed off the snow closer to the city, however does look really nice for mid Hudson valley region on 18z NAM. Now would need to see if rgem comes on board with the juicier solution.
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I mean I hope you are right and at least some parts of the subforum can see an inch of snow tomorrow but given how the winter has gone and how good the RGEM has generally been it's hard to bet against it unless it caves. The NAM has over an inch of snow almost to the bronx border, I really don't see that happening as awesome as it would be.
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12z CMC has a cutter.
