Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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The Ukmet lol
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I just looked at the NAM and I don’t even know what to think of it. It’s been such a lousy model but sometimes it’s right in these scenarios.
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It’s not my favorite type of storm by any means but it’s more interesting than all rain.
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The only way CPK is less than an inch is it becomes a complete bust either in terms of sleet fest or very dry and white rain. Either is still possible but unlikely.
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I am almost sure sleet will mix in at some point at LGA and likely even well north of LGA. Hopefully it can dump before that.
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They started very conservative and now almost seem bullish with totals.
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The HRRR usually did pretty well with winter storms last year inside of 18 hours so that's probably the model I'd go with once we hit tomorrow and of course paying attention to the most important stuff like temperature, dewpoint, and radar.
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It's a terrible model lately, similar to NAM it shows very different things run to run. However I believe the HRRR, GFS, and Euro are currently the only models that look decent for NYC/Coast. I looked again and RGEM is ok too. I'm defining decent as 2+ inches.
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Pretty awful honestly, it's not a good model but it is a bit concerning multiple models are cutting back this close to the event. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Slight tick north on CMC https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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I can see why upton went conservative, the trends are not great for the city and coast although some models are still cold so going to be nowcasting situation.
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CMC looks warmer https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=123&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Going to be a battle between the high to the north and that strong low. Forced south, gfs picking up on the blocking https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
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GFS impressive NW of the city, tight gradient in the city. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022700&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs
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True it looks about the same as all along, I guess I was hoping it would trend a little wetter like the other models, it does also reintroduce sleet into parts of the city this run. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Ok fair point https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022700&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=qpf_acc-imp&m=rdps https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022700&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=rdps
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Unfortunately drier and warmer will probably go together in this case. The RGEM I see is dry and now reintroduces sleet into the metro area. My guess is the warmer models are not giving the metro area great banding.
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NAM warm RGEM dry HRRR lovely guess we’ll be nowcasting
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Tough forecast. Better than boring.
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Tough forecast but hard to see less than 3 where you are.
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Better well defined secondary this run it looks like. Would be kind of frustrating to waste this with cold air at the start of the storm but I can see your snow to rain scenario being a possible outcome.
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I agree. Maybe isolated 6+ NW of I287.
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Map has 4-6”
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And the first WWA officially of the season has been issued for Southern Westchester and maybe Bergen and CT coast? Expect at least northern parts of the city to get one too.
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Keeps upping and upping. Meanwhile NAM has the city and even nearby suburbs mixing with sleet so we’ll see. NAM is bad but sometimes good with mid level warming.
