Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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That would honestly make me more depressed than snow to our north.
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Definitely, the upcoming pattern may have potential but can also be a complete shutout. I'm not too hopeful until I see storms actually showing up in the 4-5 day range. However I do get that a good pattern and cold air are important prerequisites for having a chance.
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Maybe I'm too jaded by this winter but I'm not excited by anything until the RGEM is on board (so basically nothing outside of 84 hours and a model I trust). So far I've been right though, the one time the RGEM was on board we got snow.
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My guess for tomorrow SE of I95- All rain I95-I287- <1 inch snow/sleet than rain I287-I84- 1-2 inches snow than mostly sleet ending as rain I84 region- 2-4 inches snow changing to sleet maybe ending as light rain.
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5-8 is possible up there if mid levels aren’t that torched but it’s pretty unlikely.
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To me it lasted longer than I expected so this week was a win.
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Yea I think 2-4 reasonable expectation to start north of I84.
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Living at the bottom of Westchester my climo is not that similar to yours or the immediate coast but definitely track the interior storms because like to go snow chasing. There hasn't been much opportunity even for that this winter.
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Looks like a solid sleetstorm NW of I287 with maybe some decent snow to start north of I84.
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Looks like tomorrow night turning into a classic maybe brief snow/sleet to rain SE of I287, snow to sleet NW of I287.
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I don't want to get pulled into an event that I don't like at all but the 0Z RGEM did seem to come in colder with the sleet line very close to northern parts of the city. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030200&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030200&fh=57&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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The clouds the last two days have helped keep the snow around longer than I expected although next few days are really warm and rainy so it’ll be gone.
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Cmc seeing a near miss and Euro looking like that are probably a good signal for the weekend of 3/11-3/12.
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240 hours out but yes it looks good.
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It has basically been until this week.
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Seeing posters like Allsnow and Forky on board is reason for optimism for March. If Snowman19 ever comes on board we know it's going to happen.
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Honestly I could kind of care less in terms of seasonal totals and how they are measured because they are often inaccurate anyway but I think JFK is a good representation for Southern Queens, Brooklyn, and Southern Nassau but not the NYC as a whole in terms of tracking totals.
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Yep so locations I mentioned meets that criteria.
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For parts of the region it was. Depends how you define a snowstorm but I'd say from the Bronx/North Shore north it was a snowstorm.
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A KU storm in March is probably 6-12 inches though most likely for the metro area, it’s not mid winter. Obviously I’d still love that.
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The RGEM has no interest in wintry precip for the metro on Friday/Saturday so I’ve basically thrown in the towel.
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How is there a cutter in a pattern that’s supposed to be either big snow or suppression?
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Secondary way south on 0Z gfs.
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RGEM is actually pretty close for the northern suburbs late week storm, might be a red flag to the extremely warm models.
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I hope it leads to something but I do have trouble taking anything seriously beyond 5 days.
