What a fascinating storm system north of CT/RI and east of PVD/ORH (so basically AEMATT) in that for AEMATT we're basically waiting for OES. Precip doesn't really start cranking over here until the onshore breeze ushers enough moisture in.
Did Chicago move? (but I get the point).
December 2020 originally cut to Minneapolis, ran into a brick wall at the border and gave us a good storm. As long as the primary doesn't cross the border for poutine, then it can work.
No. Are you suggesting the GFS is the western goal post? Or that the GFS is wrong and the Euro is correct? Or that a blend of the two is more accurate?
GFS is a SWFE. We all know QPF is modeled high in those. 6-8". Euro is a whiff. Let's just whiff completely at this point. At the point in the season where give me a foot plus or stay away.
Positive move from the 12z suite. The main thing I am paying attention to is the 850 mb wind plots to monitor the easterly jet. Here is yesterday's 18z GFS plot which delivered a consensus 18" east of ORH:
Now here is the 06z plot that "only" gave east of ORH widespread 10-12" amounts:
Finally, here is this morning's GFS which returns to delivering a general 14-16" east of ORH.
FWIW the Euro made a similar improvement.