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AtlanticWx

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Everything posted by AtlanticWx

  1. H5 on 18z gfs looked really, really, really nice just as u said we need it a bit north
  2. it'd be really funny if we were able to pull off a storm in the worst possible pattern. +NAO/+AO and MJO phase 4
  3. seems to be gearing up at hr 99, i would take my chances w/ this look
  4. it looks even more amped than 06z, perhaps it's too far NW?
  5. i missed the play-by-plays in the forums, can't wait to see the outcome in a few
  6. imo this setup seems like one of those sneaky setups that shows up on ops before ensembles, and it's also a sensitive one. so either the ensembles are right and that it won't happen or there's slowly growing support based on the progression of the pattern
  7. what time would y'all recommend waking up here around moco, i'm torn between 2 and 3 am
  8. oh i didn't mean to stir up something haha, yeah it won't do it but it's nice to see it getting more north than modeled. hopefully we all come out with something to put us on the board!
  9. i meant in the sense that one run being bad isn't the end of the world like it seems in this forum
  10. hrrr seems much better at 00z, proving that u can't rlly put much stock into one run
  11. i remember hrrr downtrended before 1/7/2022 and 3/12/2022 last year, both events that ended up working out and over performing. no point worrying about what models say like 5 hours before onset for many
  12. hm, we're probably fine then. 20z and 22z i think were both good runs
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