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DarkSharkWX

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Everything posted by DarkSharkWX

  1. DarkSharkWX
  2. DarkSharkWX
    Show positive snow depth increase
  3. DarkSharkWX
    yeah i think we'll get into some form of an El Nino.. hopefully moderate to strong
  4. DarkSharkWX
    nino 1+2 has made it into positive territory and is continuing to rise i think by next year we should at the very least be in a warm netural
  5. DarkSharkWX
    models are going to continue to mishandle the placement of the TPV until the short-early mid range, especially considering the lack of NATL blocking
  6. DarkSharkWX
    euro also has some backend
  7. DarkSharkWX
    GFS will show another SECS/MECS in the next 2-3 runs
  8. DarkSharkWX
    EPS is cold
  9. DarkSharkWX
    yeah TPV sits over HB and brings down cold air down and potentially could bring the boundary south enough for a STJ wave to ride it and create an overrunning event. it's what we have been missing the whole year
  10. DarkSharkWX
    the best chance for something wintry is still at the very end of the month - the start of Feb
  11. DarkSharkWX
    sadly we've trended away from an -NAO which was helping to push our boundary further south. cold rain tomorrow, maybe some front end slop on wednesday if we're lucky, and potentially something from the very end of jan to very early Feb before we torch and there's no hope for change until maybe late Feb-March if an SSWE happens and we get the downstream effects from it towards us 2-4 weeks later. even if we dont get a SSWE the SPV should still take a beating
  12. DarkSharkWX
  13. DarkSharkWX
    1.5-2" for me - I think everyone NW of the fall line would be more than happy with that solution if it played out... sadly its the LR nam
  14. DarkSharkWX
    cutoff right at fall line verbatim lmao
  15. DarkSharkWX
    to be fair the december pattern that verified was different than what guidance was showing when that time period was in the long range, hopefully guidance holds on the looks we are seeing at 500h for the next 48h and if so confidence should be medium-high also being in peak climo doesn't hurt much
  16. DarkSharkWX
    Most EPS members have us getting some measurable snow verbatim the next 15 or so days w/ a nice mean
  17. DarkSharkWX
    Looks like GEFS is colder
  18. DarkSharkWX
    you aren't wrong, EPS/GEFS shifted colder
  19. DarkSharkWX
    Not a bad look at all
  20. DarkSharkWX
    the funny part is I think he used to root for us last year lmao, he has smth against northeast/ma people for no reason
  21. DarkSharkWX
    this will prob be a backloaded winter esp if SSWE event advertised by LR models verifies
  22. DarkSharkWX
    Isn't there some concerns with WAR and pna ridge being too far west?
  23. DarkSharkWX
    Where do you get the first image from?
  24. DarkSharkWX
  25. DarkSharkWX
    we will we've just been unlucky. lr forecasts have nina turning into mdt-strong nino by next winter and there are already some signs nina will start to fade soon like losing deep-layer cold
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