DarkSharkWX
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Everything posted by DarkSharkWX
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even with a 50/50 low it becomes a cutter probably because the storm is more amped(phases over plains), but the 11th being more north and closer to a phase is a step in the right direction as well as stronger confluence, hopefully it continues and gets picked up by other guidance. CMC looks like coastal rainstorm obv wouldnt take op runs too seriously because they are op runs and we are 7-8d out
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11th storm is more north closer to phasing this run on GFS lol, we'll see if ensembles pick up on this
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hrrr is nice
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Gefs stayed steady
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Doesn't the gefs have a lag to changes?
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But adding onto this - even if there is when it goes onshore we will get a lot more data of the system rather than it just being in the PAC
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Namd
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Don't think so, at least in east Pacific, prob should ask someone else with more knowledge on that than me tho lmao
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By sampling I mean when the energy got the 11th moves onshore and that data gets inserted into the models
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while its still 8 days out and we won't know until the 11th energy gets sampled and sent into guidancde, i would still lower expectations just so that if samplation proves to be bad, you won't be as disappointed. on the bright side, at least GFS/CMC and their ensembles improved today. winter is not over after this storm too, and in the shorter range we have the 8th-9th threat that snuck up on us for the potential to be some of the region's first measurable snow
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-ENSO/la nina is not the reason for this, we are in a very nino pattern right now with overextended jet... thats a nino problem not a nina lmao
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This will prob continue until 11th data/energy gets sampled... until then lets hope things trend more favorable in general
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is this the part where everyone freaks out over one op run?
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Onto the EPS, let's see what it does. If it improves the main takeaway from this suite should be that all ensembles improved and ignoring the op runs(at this range anyways). The op runs are possible outcomes to what will happen tho fs
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Hopefully gefs follows the leader
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Gfs looks better with more confluence
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We won't know what happens with this storm until the 11th energy comes onshore in 2-4 days
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The stronger S/W is more noticeable this run 18z: 0z:
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Still a good signal for coastal
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50/50 low is weaker and less consolidated but the S/W is more amped this run
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GEFS has stronger western ridging this run due to stronger trough in Pacific
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Yeah we'll know in about 2-4 days when the 11th energy moves on shore. It will determine if we phase with the NS trough and then go on the 50/50 benchmark or not
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yup CMC is gonna ride up coast and paste us
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GFS/CMC have snow
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Just did -
