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DarkSharkWX

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Everything posted by DarkSharkWX

  1. DarkSharkWX
    yeah TPV sits over HB and brings down cold air down and potentially could bring the boundary south enough for a STJ wave to ride it and create an overrunning event. it's what we have been missing the whole year
  2. DarkSharkWX
    the best chance for something wintry is still at the very end of the month - the start of Feb
  3. DarkSharkWX
    sadly we've trended away from an -NAO which was helping to push our boundary further south. cold rain tomorrow, maybe some front end slop on wednesday if we're lucky, and potentially something from the very end of jan to very early Feb before we torch and there's no hope for change until maybe late Feb-March if an SSWE happens and we get the downstream effects from it towards us 2-4 weeks later. even if we dont get a SSWE the SPV should still take a beating
  4. DarkSharkWX
  5. DarkSharkWX
    1.5-2" for me - I think everyone NW of the fall line would be more than happy with that solution if it played out... sadly its the LR nam
  6. DarkSharkWX
    cutoff right at fall line verbatim lmao
  7. DarkSharkWX
    to be fair the december pattern that verified was different than what guidance was showing when that time period was in the long range, hopefully guidance holds on the looks we are seeing at 500h for the next 48h and if so confidence should be medium-high also being in peak climo doesn't hurt much
  8. DarkSharkWX
    Most EPS members have us getting some measurable snow verbatim the next 15 or so days w/ a nice mean
  9. DarkSharkWX
    Looks like GEFS is colder
  10. DarkSharkWX
    you aren't wrong, EPS/GEFS shifted colder
  11. DarkSharkWX
    Not a bad look at all
  12. DarkSharkWX
    the funny part is I think he used to root for us last year lmao, he has smth against northeast/ma people for no reason
  13. DarkSharkWX
    this will prob be a backloaded winter esp if SSWE event advertised by LR models verifies
  14. DarkSharkWX
    Isn't there some concerns with WAR and pna ridge being too far west?
  15. DarkSharkWX
    Where do you get the first image from?
  16. DarkSharkWX
  17. DarkSharkWX
    we will we've just been unlucky. lr forecasts have nina turning into mdt-strong nino by next winter and there are already some signs nina will start to fade soon like losing deep-layer cold
  18. DarkSharkWX
    We're already in an -EAMT that's retracting the jet
  19. DarkSharkWX
    It will take some time to recover from the mild Pacific air though
  20. DarkSharkWX
    For the first half of Jan it seems to me that there will be an -EAMT event, retracting the extremely extended Pacific jet. But then we get another +EAMT(HP moving through east Asia) that starts extending the jet again into a spot thats more ideal for western ridging / aleutian low. Far out, but we'll see what happens when we get closer to it. Last time in December what happened was that the +EAMT was strong and overextended the jet.
  21. DarkSharkWX
    50/50 low back on GFS lol
  22. DarkSharkWX
    NAM 3km shows a robust burst of snow with -4 omega right over the DGZ with saturated profile, indicating optimal dendrite growth. If this verified it would really be coming down, and there would be accumulating snow. This is a very good sounding, other than the marginal temps riding 0C isotherm. With dynamic cooling the ptype would be snow. Will send positive SD change when its done loading on TT.
  23. DarkSharkWX
    Fr lmao
  24. DarkSharkWX
    And at least when we do get a good winter/good storm after all these winters it's going to feel soo satisfying
  25. DarkSharkWX
    Dw we will get an above average winter soon, while yes our climo is decreasing, I think weve just been sort of unlucky these past 7 years with all of the ninas we've had.
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