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DarkSharkWX

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Everything posted by DarkSharkWX

  1. DarkSharkWX
    cobb ratio gfs
  2. DarkSharkWX
    yeah way more negatilt, cooking this run
  3. DarkSharkWX
    GFS looks better, more negative tilt compare gfs to nam 3km
  4. DarkSharkWX
    0.5" of qpf of snow.. in 1 hour tears this is some buffalo type shit, obv hella overdone but verabritm this would def get the job done and accum wouldnt be too far off the snow maps; -6 omega within DGZ w saturated column would cook
  5. DarkSharkWX
    yea lol, its going to take some time to transition to a good pattern for here, it j isnt going to magically flip from warm to cold and snowy, not sure why some people were expecting it
  6. DarkSharkWX
    crazy ass gfs run for the mountains and W of I81
  7. DarkSharkWX
    over 5 feet tears
  8. DarkSharkWX
    im p sure if you remove the super nino years with crazy goa low phase 8/1 would still gen be good tropical forcing for cold/snow here
  9. DarkSharkWX
    the warm phases of the mjo(4/5/6) seem to be generally transient and help to weaken the SPV bc of configs in the NPAC pattern(which are most associated w tropospheric wave driving), along w a +SCAND and an existing -NAO/-AO increasing the chances of it coupling
  10. DarkSharkWX
    weeklies been very consistent w late dec-early jan signal and is moving in time, fits w mjo/spv progression
  11. DarkSharkWX
    woah , nino 4 at 1.9 rn, might beat all time nino 4 record
  12. DarkSharkWX
    DCA : 27.8" BWI : 35.4" IAD : 39.6" RIC: 16.2" SBY: 13.4"
  13. DarkSharkWX
    so many times in the 2000s lmao
  14. DarkSharkWX
    GEFS improved
  15. DarkSharkWX
    whats the highest daily? on the monthly index highest i could find was 1.44 set on nov 2015
  16. DarkSharkWX
    nice -NAO/+PNA showing up here snowfall at DCA in these months: Dec 1981: 1.7" Dec 1952: 2.0" Dec 2009: 16.6" Dec 1955: 0.5" Dec 1961: 1.2" Dec 1996: 0.2" Dec 1987: T Nov 1981:T Dec 2000: 2.0"
  17. DarkSharkWX
    super torch!
  18. DarkSharkWX
    even with a great pattern its going to take some time to flush the previous pac puke warm air out
  19. DarkSharkWX
  20. DarkSharkWX
    big improvements on GEFS it seems so far
  21. DarkSharkWX
    main reason I went BN for SNE was due to suppression issues, but now I think SNE could end up around N - especially more inland SNE(should prob have elaborated more lmao), i think there'll be a few miller A systems that go up the coast and hit NYC/BOS in addition to the MA and i def should have added 2003 to my top analogs as well as polar, didn't add it bc of the +PDO/modoki, but looking back in retrospect i def should have sm posted an analog snowfall anomaly map that gen echoes my snowfall thoughts in terms of distrubtion on the EC on twitter:
  22. DarkSharkWX
    i didn't account for solar much in my forecast cause i couldn't find too much of a correlation w/ solar cycle and polar domain, and i thought other factors were going to override it, but ill prob have to look into it more later on
  23. DarkSharkWX
    EPS still looks good
  24. DarkSharkWX
    gefs cooked, more western ridging, cold air arrives earlier this run too w/ active STJ
  25. DarkSharkWX
    12z eps is even better, now even some ridging in AK with nice +PNA and ofc -NAO/-AO also best snow run so far
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