DarkSharkWX

for me the highest storm in 2014 was the overpreforming vday storm with ~19" here, 20-26" in the ridges north of me

i mean we still probably will get a good period of HL blocking w/ -EPO and +PNA its just that theres going to be more SER (especially before/after good periods) with a more developed nina since -QBO relates to more active MJO

+QBO causes the tropical tropopause to stabilize which makes convection focus further off the equator which shifts the pattern more poleward, -QBO would have more active MJO(in general) but more focused on the equator

is there any other alternative that allows you to change climo periods and parse an unlimited amount of years?

there was actually a recent research paper that came out that attributed the lack of extreme teleconnections in the 2023/24 strong/super nino to an equally, if not more anomalous warming in the tropical Indian and Atlantic oceans, which is certainly interesting to think about how this will affect how seasonal forecasts are conducted in the future https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02584-8

nam vs euro, all abt the tilt

speaking of i think this is an expansion north a bit lmao(the cyan anyways)

modeling is atrocious with TPV setups and ULLs but maybe until tmrw night? id greatly lower expectations though ofc

i was talking to cody snell yesterday(WPC met) and he said similar things relating to the CIPS analogs being further north. he implied that he was expecting a northern trend(not a huge jump to the NW though) but he said to expect some southern shifts in the next forecast cycles. as you've said multiple times it seems a bit odd that this is so suppressed with a UL strength like that tracking relatively north

Although the Euro has been trending better in some aspects(a more amped upper low, kicker more held back -> more +PNA), the problem here is the tilt. It has been trending more neutrally tilted which is a problem, additionally, the flow out ahead of the TPV lobe is more suppressive, and the southern stream shortwave isn't digging as much, leading to a more OTS solution. Ideally you'd want to see the confluence lift up a bit with the SS digging more for a less flat flow. We'll need an earlier, more robust phase with less flat flow. Looking at old runs that were good for us, the +PNA was good but the key difference was that the trough was more buckled since the SS wave was able to dig more leading to a more negative tilt. The TPV wasn't squashing out the flow in front of it because of this, so now in future runs we'd want to see a relax of more confluence and more buckling of the trough via the SS wave being deeper, and maybe slow down a little bit to raise heights out east and turn the trough negative. I don't think the +PNA is the issue here on its own; its a phenomenal change, its the fact that there's other changes which are bad vis a vis the SS wave which makes the flow out ahead of the TPV lobe worse, so that's why despite the Pacific "improving", surface is considerably worse.

v day 2007, but also some of the higher end 80s storms

WOAH

thanks for the suggestion, looking at era5 looks like it did have a tpv phase - kicker vort dug and amplified the western ridge which lead to a tpv lobe digging all the way down and phasing w/ the other wave, roll it forward and...

genuine question, what was a similar storm to this setup with TPV interaction(to this extent) being involved?

this is quite nice

MECS on euro

idk if i should post the map here... might as well lol

just checked soundings for JYO/GAI we don't mix until hour 126 when precip is all out and even if there was precip its just sleet

honestly idk 850s are below the entire time we get precip, even if there is a warm nose its probably like sleet not zr

but you don't lol, for some reason it has northern moco staying as snow and it doesnt make a difference at all

thats kinda weird but i dont think would have made much of a difference, looks to me more sleet than zr if we mix most of the precips already out of here by the time N of DC starts to mix

money shot