Zeus

"44 new replies since I last checked a short while ago? Something intriguing must've.... oh we're reminiscing about the blizzard of '78" Never change, fellas.

Enough to know to throw a tarp down first in these trying times.

I saw a video like that once or a dozen times.

EPS a little more SE than we'd like this turn.

GEFS backing that wagon up on the 12z run. Like the look for now, considering how far out we are in time.

I appreciate you sending this in my direction!

So far the morning to midday runs have the coastal taking over a little sooner and staying a little further south, but also tuck it a bit closer to the coast. Would like to see that trend go a couple more rounds to nudge that icy stuff further SE.

It does seem like little steps are being made in that direction run by run with the daytime runs today but we've still got a good amount of clock to eat. There are hints -- whispers! -- of a long duration needle-threader, but most who detect them dare not speak of it. I'm down here just hoping to stop seeing outputs where the primary low is bullying the 1040 high into a beefy cameltoe.

Canadian keeps chugging along advancing the trend of the warmth getting pretty far up.

It hangs back some of the southwestern energy juuuust enough to sort of elongate things though -- dragging snow through basically most of Monday. It's on its own in that regard for the current-most run of the overall suite, but if that starts showing similarly elsewhere then a bit colder, longer solution would seem more likely. Given its performance thus far, I wouldn't necessarily hold my breath on that front; seems to be lagging behind the pack.

Probably sleet/freezing rain rather than plain rain for many on that particular run; look at the temps. May have a warm nose aloft there but the 2ms stay pretty frigid outside of the immediate coast on that run, and the ICON doesn't seem to differentiate ptypes other than snow vs. rain for purposes of its accumulation output. If dominance transfers to the coastal a bit earlier and locks in colder air, a moot point, but the overnight and early midday runs suggest a big thump then a flip to some kitchen sink stuff around our area, maybe then some back end fluff. Need to see that trend halt or adjust in a different direction for those favoring an all snow event, but 6+ inches for most in the area seems likely regardless at this stage.

No system-specific thread on this one yet, huh. What a superstitious bunch.

Yeah, not crazy about the 12z Euro AI look versus the 06z Euro Op/AI look. But don't we always have just the most fun on a will she/won't she phase at -- what -- four days out? Room for improvement, room for disappointment. Budget for edibles.

The differences at 12z for the Euro AI are much more noticeable at 500. Give me the look of the 06z OP Euro at 500 all day.

That term is reserved for when the wind criteria is met; accordingly, when the storm-focused thread reaches 100+ pages before the first flake falls, it'll be fine to deploy.

It's terrible. Let's get sensational. "Any given Sunday: How much for Philly this next storm?" and we send in the dancing girls

Good morning, you princes of complain, you dingalings of New England. I wish you good luck; I like this one.

I like where the goal posts are at for this one. Can only go so far north it seems, temps struggle to break 20º F, chance that thing slows down right where you'd want it to for a long duration event. Of course, not a lock yet. We still have to brave many potential issues. The agony of being 4-5 days out. Potential for weird suck zones in the precip shield. Mild indigestion, aches and pains, skin rash, death. But, other than that, I like the look.

As of this past August. I don't feel it.

I feel like one must not only actually be and remain a New Englander but also pay the tithe that is spending dry summer days talking about nothing here in order to have that kind of status. Always a Mid-Atlantic transplant from the start, the reality is that at best I've become one of those "church, but only on Christmas and Easter" types or its equivalent for this forum. But, when it's snowing up there, and raining where I am -- as it so often is -- I look to the northeast of me, which is where you all are now, and give a contented nod. I hope you feel it. Do you feel it?!

You're slant-sticking my number, here. That's all I'll say; a lady never reveals her age.

Can you believe I'm still alive?! Gotta be older than you at this point.

Lads lads lads. Sinceramente: how much for Philly?

Yes hello I am here