Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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Analogs for Dec 21-29 +PNA (snow) are: 2005, 2002, 2001, 1995, 1975, 1973, 1963*, 1952, 1950. -
Analogs I am coming up with for Dec 20-24 are: 2005, 2002, 2001, 1995, 1975, 1973, 1963*, 1952, 1950. (Dec 20-24 is rigid, make it Dec 16-29 those years). 1) Dec 21-29+PNA, 2) Dec 10-20-NAO
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Poor DT. When the PNA is negative, and has been in that phase for >20 days in December, our odds for snowfall are significantly low. Especially since it's technically not Winter yet. Dec 20-24 is our window.
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Does don or anyone know what NYC snowfall is like, coming out of a 4SD -NAO? Better yet, what happens, when that rise is associated with a positive PNA/or GOA low as I think we are going to reverse thisv. could make a window a few days before Christmas
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Reversing last years conditions
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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Thanks. Here's the thread
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Could be a white Christmas.. as lifting out of strong -NAO and +PNA is very happy historically. Could be a 10"+
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-NAO rebuilds while strongly negative on models 3 times. v 384hr is +400dm still. Dec 21-24 looks like the window per 18z GFS ensembles. (PNA should be positive then too.. could be a big one)
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Pretty nice +PNA coming up Dec 19-29.. don't expect snow before then imo 1-year reverse correlation has been running <-0.50, and this one is extreme..
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initial point actually fell apart somewhat.. as the -NAO (high pressure) dominates theory was >1.5x cold-sustained/-NAO condition in Europe/w. Atlantic was a difference maker 45N, but N. Atlantic high pressure completely filled in. I still think we will +PNA Dec19-29. Same idea pushed back a few days..
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I think we will probably do this here.. 1 year later (reverses)
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We've had a pretty good <-0.00 correlation one year to the next ... let's see how this one does. (RNA)
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Only -NAO/wetter than average December.. 11/12 were drier than average What a cold-skew map! In 1997, when the 48-20 averages were >than 0.
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cramping my style
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Future runs will trend warmer at 500mb in the MA/SE.. maybe even alot warmer. I've seen it 100 times before. (It's 100/100).. PNA region dominates. (days 5.75-10.75)
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Someone is being stupid.. like to believe in an alternate reality- Space is thoughts. Why can't I bring them forward (because energy-weight isn't real?)
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tick tock .. that's a greater signal pick-and-choose 1/every 10, in the roll forward +2 months. 00z GFS is running out to MR/LR now too.
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Cliché I don't know that people see my research though, because you can probably make monetary gain from it , because it's simple work. It's a long time at this point for information blackout re: responses. (Can't do anything if you're saying STFU to my outside point from 30 minutes ago.) Not a big deal.. but it's weird. calculated and no science (the response times). it's about respect too.
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-NAO's in December have been historically dry. Not this one. 1996 was the only exception and the similarity is that there was warmth in the ENSO subsurface (before 1997 El Nino). do you see my other maps(before +time)? water, water everywhere but noone pays $1 for water Yeah I'm out bro
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-AO doesn't carry.. slight tendency for +PNA
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60 here.. nice High pressure-NAO, like always.
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It seems like they are getting progressively "less uniform" (our last strong Nino 15-16 was followed by 6-7 years of -PNA )
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I just think it's interesting.. watch it happen. I'd take a +NAO these days and in general. We are switching to a lower atmosphere pattern I think.
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Yes.. maybe we will have -NAO all Winter.. could be the same to worse.. (I edited your post)
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*If I can 1 more post this. It was Dec-Mar. A 0.40-0.50 correlation/above random for +NAO Jan-Mar, based on Dec -PNA, (since 1948, 75 analogs. top 20/75 analogs).
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