Stormchaserchuck1

Really warming up early today. Already past forecasted high.

Does a relative +PNA Winter precede a later year El Nino? We had an anomalous, relatively positive, PNA this Winter with strong -PDO conditions in the Fall and a borderline Weak La Nina. The thought is, does the atmosphere lead ENSO? Based on 75 years of historical data, the answer is no. Here is the +10 month condition ENSO SSTs with earlier in the year PNA (both pos and neg considered, but the map default is positive) ENSO +10 months after a Winter +PNA Slight opposite correlation.

There's a little Greenland ridge trying to pop at Day 7, but the long range is about as +AO as it gets.

Ensembles say 70s are possible.

^I was about to comment on how the Day 14-16 model projections are about as uniform +AO as it gets throughout the N. Hemisphere. Kind of amazing that 10mb is projected to be warm then, but they are not always connected. Actually I did research once that found that +time lag on Stratosphere warmings are 3x more correlated to the -NAO than Day+0. In this case, a mid to late March warming would correlate with -NAO conditions the last week of March and into early April, as the usual time lag at this time of year is +15 days.

The last 2 Winter's before this one were stormy in the SW, US. I think LA had their coldest January on record 2 years ago. The theory is that weather out there leads us by years.

Same place as we were last year at this time. Summer has been ridgy on the Pacific side. SW, US drought correlates with -PDO rolled forward up to years. Not good that they had so much High pressure this Winter imo.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +4.7 +4.5 +4.6 +7.0 +4.5 +3.8 +3.2 +2.4 -2.7

no way. Index patterns are horrible. We did see somewhat of a La Nina STJ this Winter. This March warm up also fits the decadal RNA pattern that we have seen Feb-March 2018-2024.. it's still alive and going.

Some light snow for northern MD on Tuesday on the GFS

6z GFS ensembles really look warm at the end, with +EPO for mid-March.

We have only had ENSO Neutral 7 of the last 31 years, and that even counts last Winter as ENSO Neutral. We've only had 2-consecutive ENSO Neutral years 1 time since 1994 (12-13, 13-14).

It's not like a pattern that's going to bust colder, without much going on in the upper latitudes. Best we have going is that the NAO is no longer strong positive.. it goes to neutral. Maybe a better chance up your way..

February +PNA rolled forward 2-months is a nice severe wx signal for the Midwest

Enjoy 60s 3 of the next 4 days, with no major index pattern change after that.. NAO neutralizes and PNA starts turning negative..

+QBO/Nina has been one heck of a force to keep the 10mb layer really cold all Winter.. it's made it hard for -AO/NAO episodes to sustain. Imagine like a tornado vortex going from above to the ground.. although there can be wobbles from time to time, the strong vortex comes back to dominate..

96-97 was a pretty early one. I remember, as a kid, early buds on the trees. I was torn when Apr 1, 1997 was originally suppose to give us 12"+ in Baltimore. A lot of people don't know this, but it shifted 1 day before to go north. It was originally expected to be a big one - killing the Early Spring foliage. The early leaves survived.

Does a February Nino 1+2 spike precede El Nino? A lot of people are claiming that an El Nino for 25-26 is underway because Nino 1+2 is near +1.0c right now on some readings. February '25 is the month where it went moderately positive. I don't see this correlation to later in the year on the roll forward, although that is a high correlation for +SSTAs near Asia and in the Atlantic. Nino 3/3.4 are 0.0 correlation.

End of last nights 0z EPS

My last big storm was 5.5" on Nov 15, 2018.

There is still a lot of cold water in the ENSO subsurface. Here is a time sensitive map: Last year at this time, strong cold anomalies had already taken over the subsurface at this time.

Really running with the AO. Here's another one:

While I do expect it to get warm.. and this lingering cold layer is also fuel for thunderstorms, there is also a growing drought in the SW, US. In the Spring, you want to see troughs in the SW, US, that spurs on activity in the Midwest. That's a little different this year with a growing drought and kind of persistent ridging over the SW, US. It may be a more active season further east from the typical areas.. although a lot of N. America is dry right now, a pattern that started last year.

Good catch. +Mountain Torque over Asia correlated with +PNA earlier in the Winter

We still have a lot of negative water in the ENSO subsurface Last year at this time it was already moving full Nina in the subsurface