Stormchaserchuck1

I agree that 97L will likely stay out to sea, as CV storms passing NE of 60W/20N, stay out to sea historically 90% of the time. The ones that break that have a huge +H5 ridge over the top after it passes that point, and models don't currently have that.

I just think it's so interesting how Summer's with -SLP 60-90N since 2012 reversed in the Winter almost everytime. And it's not reversing as a -NAO over Greenland, it's 100% reversing, at 90N.

I think it's strongest 0 to +4 years.

Spring/Summer NAO roll forward, and +2 years after Solar Max also support a Winter +NAO at 0.2-3 correlation. I suspect we'll have the same deal as the last few years where the CPC NAO index will be positive, but the AO will be negative a lot of the time, with +500mb heights up near the Pole.

What I notice most is how backed up the mid-latitude jet is, as there are 3 regions with lower 500mb heights than the warmth to the north. When I mapped DC and Baltimore's top snowfalls/snowfall months/snowfall seasons, the same thing is true.. there are 3 areas of lower heights than even the -AO/-NAO +500mb heights to the north. This tells me that general -H5 is more important than having Polar blocking. I think the problem with my analogs is that the northern ridge is too far north: over 90N. 90N puts a mean trough at 45N, but not as much 39N. We need classic Greenland/Davis Strait blocking to do better. Unfortunately with Arctic ice melt, it's something that reverses 100% the following Winter, and that's centered 90N. I think this is why the new Euro seasonal has ridging/blocking centered at 90N.

^Phoenix broke their all-time August monthly high at 118F yesterday.

January on the Euro seasonal looks like -EPO/-AO

The 73-year average for PNA in July is a +0.2 temp correlation from ATL to NYC in +PNA vs -PNA, all data included.

Heatwave coming in France

Maybe not 50 years.. the 1980s were significantly cooler than now in the West coast warm season.. but some places broke the trend of recent years

Have fun in Africa!

Thanks for telling me, I ran out of attachment space on this board, and have been uploading them through imagebb. Maybe another image upload site will work for you? Tell me if this works. Also a strong Gulf of Alaska High pressure has been there June-July Analogs US Temp pattern of analogs

True, that is some very impressive heat out there now!

Also a strong Gulf of Alaska High pressure has been there June-July Analogs US Temp pattern of analogs

This Summer has been significantly cooler in the Southwest, US. Last year Phoenix was breaking records by >+2F, and the roll forward of those very warm analogs had a +PNA in Dec-Jan.. It was a good indicator. But we don't have that this year.

24-25 is probably my top analog for 25-26 right now. Since 2014 though, there have been only like 3-4 periods where we had sustained below average for a 2+ month period, like last Winter. So the odds are stacked against it. It's not impossible though.

That lack of ice melt pattern leading to -AO is really neat.. I almost want to think that the cold there in the Summer is artificial because of how it snaps the following Winter. I'm leaning toward something not so +nao and -pna. I might not do a seasonal outlook this year because of how close everything is to "neutral". We'll see.

Because of shortened wavelengths in the mid Summer, July has a +temp correlation with +PNA from ATL to NYC

Here's the Winter US Temp map Believe it or not, 5/6 of those +analogs were below average snow here.

We've had a hostile Arctic this late Spring/Summer so far It's been pretty amazing to not break 2012's arctic ice melt record for 13 years now. Since 2012, here are the analogs to pattern: Following Winter: It seems to "snap back" in the Winter, with -AO

Since 2012, this is what the following Winter looks like in years with -SLP May-Aug 60-90N vs +SLP (anomaly map below is showing negative base, with both sides included). This is why I think the Euro seasonal has that pressure map in the Pacific despite -PDO, and why the CPC is going cooler.

Actually us not breaking 2012's record in this time of exponential global warming, for now 13 years.. is just as impressive. 2021-2024

With 61% of the period complete, it's at +0.20 for DJFM NAO. Given the 0.54 sd, which has hit 11-9 since inception in 2005, it has a 50% probability of being in the range -0.34 to +0.74 Winter NAO.

I mean, it's pretty important. I think the pattern derives right from the subsurface.

CPC subsurface continues to be much different from TAO/Triton.. it's holding a warm pool in the western-central subsurface, below the dateline.